Monday 19 Apr - Wednesday 28 Apr

Cloudy and breezy across Northern Ireland and Scotland with outbreaks of rain through Monday, later spreading briefly to Wales, the South West and Northern England. Further southeast it will likely remain drier and brighter with a cold night. Outbreaks of rain in the north and west will then likely ease as high pressure becomes more widely established again. This will bring plenty of dry and bright weather with sunny spells and daytime temperatures around average, but cold by night with the risk of overnight frosts and the chance of fog patches. There is the potential for rain and strong winds to occur at times towards the northwest of the UK with the possibility of these unsettled conditions briefly spreading southeast.

Wednesday 28 Apr - Wednesday 12 May

Confidence remains low during this period, however, mixed and slowly evolving weather patterns, typical of spring, are most likely through the end of April and into May. Fine and dry weather is expected to be more prevalent on the whole, with fair-weather cloud and plenty of sunny spells, although all areas are likely to see some showers or longer spells of rain at times. Temperatures are likely to be close to average for the time of year, with warmer spells possible at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Wednesday 21 Apr - Friday 30 Apr

Cloud across the south of the UK early on Wednesday will clear away leaving most places dry with sunny spells and light winds. Some showers are likely in the north, these wintry over hills in Scotland. By the end of next week high pressure is expected to dominate, meaning most places will be dry and bright, with some morning fog patches in places. It will probably turn warmer, although overnight frosts are still possible in rural areas. These settled conditions are expected to persist for most places until the end of April. However, there is still potential for rain and strong winds to affect the northwest at times, with the possibility that these unsettled conditions may spread farther southeast.

Thursday 29 Apr - Thursday 13 May

Mixed weather patterns, typical of spring are most likely through the end of April and into May. Overall, fine and dry weather is expected to be most dominant, with fair-weather cloud and plenty of sunny spells. However, all areas are likely to see some showers or perhaps some longer spells of rain at times. Temperatures are likely to be close to average for the time of year, with the possibility of warmer spells at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Thursday 22 Apr - Saturday 1 May

Fine and dry on Thursday, with sunny spells and patchy fair-weather cloud. Some showers possible for the extreme northeast, accompanied by breezy winds; these winds are also expected for the far southwest where gale force gusts could be seen around hills and exposed headlands. By the end of the week, high pressure is expected to dominate, meaning most places will be dry and bright, with some morning fog patches in places. After a dip in daytime temperatures at the start of the period, it will probably warm slightly by day, although overnight frosts remain probable in rural areas. These settled conditions are expected to persist for most places until the end of April, with the greatest potential for rain and stronger winds across the south and southwest.

Friday 30 Apr - Friday 14 May

Mixed weather patterns, typical of spring are most likely through the first half of May. Overall, fine and dry weather is expected to be most dominant, with fair-weather cloud and plenty of sunny spells. However, all areas are likely to see some showers or perhaps some longer spells of rain at times, with these unsettled periods more likely than they were in April. Temperatures are likely to be close to average for the time of year, with the possibility of warmer spells at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

That weather front overnight and this morning into Scotland /NI is far more substantial and penetrated much further east than Schaff was presenting...

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Friday 23 Apr - Sunday 2 May

Generally fine and dry on Friday, with sunny spells and patchy fair-weather cloud. Some showers possible for the far northeast, accompanied by gusty winds; these winds are also expected for the far southwest where gale force gusts could be seen in exposed areas. For most of April, high pressure is expected to dominate, meaning most places will be dry and bright, with some morning fog patches in places where winds are light. After a dip in daytime temperatures at the start of the period, it will probably warm slightly by day, although overnight frosts remain probable in rural areas. The greatest potential for rain and stronger winds across the south and southwest, although confidence decreases into the beginning of May.

Sunday 2 May - Sunday 16 May

Mixed weather patterns, typical of spring are most likely through the first half of May. Overall, fine and dry weather is expected to be most dominant, with fair-weather cloud and plenty of sunny spells. However, all areas are likely to see some showers or perhaps some longer spells of rain at times, with these unsettled periods more likely than they were in April. Temperatures are likely to be close to the average for the time of year, with the possibility of some warmer spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Mostly dry and settled, uncertain temperatures.

_________________________________

Saturday 17 April – Sunday 25 April

Dry and settled for most, slightly cool.

High pressure that has been overhead throughout the past week will begin to weaken and shift away to the east this weekend. This will allow temperatures to moderate. This will also let a weakened cold front into western and northern areas, bringing some patchy but mostly light rain.

Southern and eastern areas, and most of England, will tend to have mostly sunny and dry weather this weekend, although the sun may be hazy at times. Early next week as high pressure finally slides off to the east, the weak front will pass through southern and eastern areas too. However, by this point the front should be so weak that there will be hardly any rain on it at all.

What happens next, from Wednesday, is where things get a little bit tricky. A second high pressure system is expected to build in from the Atlantic, bringing more dry and settled weather to the UK for the rest of the week and following weekend. However, the temperatures are still pretty tricky to pin down, even at this relatively short range. This high is likely to grab some air from near Iceland and the North Atlantic. Therefore, temperatures are likely to dip below average for at least a few days.

How far east the high pressure shifts will determine how cold it gets into the weekend. Right now, the latest computer model guidance is suggesting a third Arctic blast with temperatures falling well below average again. However, there is stronger support for things to be cool, but not overly cold. The computer models are likely overestimating the magnitude of cold by developing a brisk northerly wind. Confidence for next week is medium overall, with low confidence on the temperatures but high confidence on dry, settled weather.

Monday 26 April – Sunday 2 May

Likely dry and settled with cool Atlantic air.

For the end of April and start of May, the temperature forecast doesn't get any easier to pin down. High pressure is expected to be a major player in the weather pattern for northern Europe. But we are having trouble working out exactly where it will end up. There are strong signals for high pressure to be nearby in both the computer models and our historical analogues (where we examine previous years with similar large-scale weather patterns around the globe to what we are seeing now).

We are leaning a bit more on the historical analogues given the recent very poor performance from the computer models. These analogues suggest nearby high pressure, so we have reasonably high confidence in a settled and largely dry pattern. The temperatures will be extremely sensitive to where the high is and what sort of air the winds will blow into the UK.

If the high is mainly to our west, we will get colder Atlantic air from near Iceland, so temperatures will tend to be below average. This is the outlook we prefer, which has some support for computer models too. If the high is too close to Iceland to our northwest, we will get Arctic air and temperatures will be well below average.

If instead the high shifts east and over Scandinavia, we can tap into Spain or Mediterranean air and temperatures will climb above average. This pattern would also be a bit wetter for southern areas with some heavy rain showers from France. These temperature shifts can happen if the high centre moves by as little as 500 miles, which might seem like a long way for us, but it's a very short distance for a continent-sized weather system! Confidence for temperatures remains very low.

Monday 3 May – Sunday 16 May

Settled for a time, perhaps more unsettled later.

The first half of May should bring further high pressure for a time, leading to some drier weather with changeable temperatures as the high centre shifts about. This is again supported by some of the computer model outlook and a many of our historical analogues. Similar to the previous weeks though, we can't pin down where exactly the high centre will be. The temperature forecast is extremely sensitive to the location being precise.

What we can tell you with some reasonable confidence is that May should start out largely dry and settled with perhaps a bit brief spells of rain for some.
As we head towards the middle of the month, high pressure may shift away for a time and allow the storm track to strengthen and return to northwest Europe. This would bring more unsettled weather back to the UK after a lengthy dry spell along with milder temperatures as warm fronts drag in sub-tropical Atlantic air. This pattern is more likely to develop later in May, and we will have to wait for the large high pressure in northern Europe to ease first. Overall, confidence is low for this range.

Spring is traditionally a difficult period for weather forecasts to capture the long-range patterns, and this year is proving to be no exception to that rule.
The risk scenario is that high pressure remains strong nearby, keeping things settled and making for a largely dry month of May, after a very dry April for England at least.

Further ahead

We will have some fresh data to re-examine our forecast through mid-May and hopefully will be able to shed more light on the temperatures we can expect.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

Saturday 24 Apr - Monday 3 May

Generally fine and dry on Saturday, with sunny spells and patchy fair-weather clouds, possibly bringing some showers across the northeast, as well as some rain across the southwest. Gusty winds and possible coastal gales remain likely in the southwest, preventing frosts here; lighter winds elsewhere maintains the frost risk for much of the UK. High pressure is expected to dominate, meaning most places will remain dry and bright, with some morning fog patches in places where winds are light. Temperatures are gradually returning to average, warming slightly by day, although overnight frosts remain probable in rural areas and in the north. The greatest potential for rain and stronger winds is likely across the south and southwest, although confidence decreases into the beginning of May.

Monday 3 May - Monday 17 May

Mixed weather patterns, typical of spring are most likely through the first half of May. Overall, fine and dry weather is expected to be most dominant, with fair-weather cloud and plenty of sunny spells. However, all areas are likely to see some showers or perhaps some longer spells of rain at times, with these unsettled periods more likely than they were in April. Temperatures are likely to be close to the average for the time of year, with the possibility of some warmer spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Sunday 25 Apr - Tuesday 4 May

A settled regime will likely be in place across much of the country at first with high pressure likely to be centred to the west or northwest of the UK during this time. However, there is the threat of some rain and a few showers in the North and East. There's a small chance more unsettled conditions with heavier showers could move up from the south to impact southern areas. There are the continued threats of rural frost and patchy fog where winds fall light. Temperatures become quite uncertain depending on where the high resides, particularly in the east where temperatures are likely to struggle above average. Warmer days are most likely to be further inland towards the south and west.

Monday 3 May - Monday 17 May

Mixed weather patterns, typical of spring are most likely through the first half of May. Overall, fine and dry weather is expected to be most dominant, with fair-weather cloud and plenty of sunny spells. However, all areas are likely to see some showers or perhaps some longer spells of rain at times, with these unsettled periods more likely than they were in April. Temperatures are likely to be close to the average for the time of year, with the possibility of some warmer spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Mostly dry and settled, uncertain temperatures.

_________________________________

Wednesday 21 April – Sunday 25 April

Dry, settled, often sunny, but cooler than normal.

A tenacious area of high pressure from early in the week finally shifted east enough to allow a weakened cold front to cross the UK. By Thursday, this front will be clearing away into the continent as a second area of high pressure builds overhead from the west. This high is bringing some colder air from the north into the UK, although the coldest air from the Arctic should stay away to our east. Temperatures are still expected to dip a few degrees below average again after a milder start to the working week. The colder air will stick around for the rest of the week, but this will come under a stubborn area of high pressure that will also linger through the weekend.

Mostly sunny skies are expected with some afternoon cloud in places. We will also see little, if any, rainfall across the entire country. With it being late April, we can enjoy a higher sun angle in the afternoon that will help things feel warm while stood in direct sunlight, and a bit cool in the shade. Overnight rural and hilly areas may see frosts that will make for some crisp mornings. One thing to keep an eye on is a low pressure system later this week and weekend to our southwest. It should remain well offshore, but Southwest England and South Wales may see some cloudier skies for a few days. There is a chance of light rain as well, but only a small chance. Confidence is high on the large-scale pattern bringing dry, settled, but colder than normal weather through the weekend.

Monday 26 April – Sunday 2 May

Likely dry and settled with cool Atlantic air.

For the end of April and start of May, the temperature forecast remains pretty tricky to pin down. High pressure is expected to be a major player in the weather pattern for northern Europe. But we are still having trouble working out exactly where it will end up. Our historical analogues (where we examine previous years with similar large-scale weather patterns around the globe to what we are seeing now) suggest we will continue to see high pressure in the Atlantic or north of Europe into early May. This is backed up by the latest computer models, so confidence is a little higher than last week for the dry, settled, and cooler than normal pattern to continue. We are leaning a bit more on the historical analogues given the recent very poor performance from the computer models.

However, the temperatures will be extremely sensitive to where the high is and what sort of air the winds will blow into the UK. If the high is mainly to our west, we will get colder Atlantic air from near Iceland, so temperatures will tend to be below average but not overly cold. This is the outlook we prefer. If the high is too close to Iceland to our northwest, we will get Arctic air and temperatures will be well below average. There is also a growing chance of rain, mainly for western areas, through the week with some weak low pressure systems drifting in from the northwest. This should miss us, but we will need to keep our eye on their development. These temperature shifts can happen if the high centre moves by as little as 500 miles, which might seem like a long way for us but it's a very short distance for a continent-sized weather system.

Monday 3 May – Sunday 16 May

Dry and cool, perhaps warm and unsettled later.

The first half of May should bring further high pressure for a time, leading to some drier weather with likely cooler-feeling air as the high centre linger to the west. This is again supported by some of the computer model outlooks and many of our historical analogues. Similar to the previous weeks though, we can't pin down where exactly the high centre will be with any sense of accuracy at the moment, and the temperature forecast is extremely sensitive to the location being precise. What we can tell you with some reasonable confidence is that May should start out largely dry and settled with perhaps a bit brief spells of rain for some.

As we head towards the middle of the month, high pressure may shift away for a time and allow the low pressure to strengthen and return to Northwest Europe.
This would bring more unsettled weather back to the UK after a lengthy dry spell along with warmer air as winds shift to be more southerly. This pattern is more likely to develop later in May, and we will have to wait for the large high pressure in northern Europe to ease first. Overall, confidence is low for this range. Springtime is traditionally a difficult period for weather forecasts to capture the long-range patterns, and this year is proving to be no exception to that rule. The risk scenario is that high pressure remains strong nearby, keeping things settled and making for a largely dry month of May, after a very dry April, for England at least.

Further ahead

With better support for the colder than normal air to linger into May, we will have a look at timing when we might transition to a more typical late spring pattern of rain and warmth.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

Sunday 25 Apr - Tuesday 4 May

A settled regime will likely be in place across much of the country at first with high pressure likely to be centred to the west or northwest of the UK during this time. However, there is the threat of some rain and a few showers in the North and East. There's a small chance more unsettled conditions with heavier showers could move up from the south to impact southern areas. There are the continued threats of rural frost and patchy fog where winds fall light. Temperatures become quite uncertain depending on where the high resides, particularly in the east where temperatures are likely to struggle above average. Warmer days are most likely to be further inland towards the south and west.

Monday 3 May - Monday 17 May

Mixed weather patterns, typical of spring are most likely through the first half of May. Overall, fine and dry weather is expected to be most dominant, with fair-weather cloud and plenty of sunny spells. However, all areas are likely to see some showers or perhaps some longer spells of rain at times, with these unsettled periods more likely than they were in April. Temperatures are likely to be close to the average for the time of year, with the possibility of some warmer spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Monday 26 Apr - Wednesday 5 May

A settled regime will likely be in place across much of the country at first with high pressure likely to be centred to the west or northwest of the UK. However, there is the threat of some rain and a few showers in the North at first, these perhaps extending by midweek to all but central and southern parts. Throughout this period, there is the continued threat of rural frost and patchy fog where winds fall light. Temperatures are quite uncertain depending on where the area of high pressure resides, particularly in the east where temperatures are likely to struggle above average. Warmer days are most likely to be further inland towards the south and west.

Wednesday 5 May - Wednesday 19 May

Confidence is low for this period as is typical of spring. The UK will likely see spells of fine, dry weather at times with fair-weather cloud and plenty of sunny spells, as well as an increased likelihood of more unsettled periods when compared to April. All areas expected to see showers or longer spells of rain at times. Temperatures are likely to be close to the average for the time of year, with the possibility of some warmer spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

The second half of the long-ranger has been especially vague and useless for a couple of weeks now.

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Taken from MyLondon website:
Capital set to bask in 32C heatwave as warm spell continues

The mercury could be set to hit 32C inside a few weeks – which should mean a scorcher over the May Bank Holiday. Meteorologist Jim Dale claims some very warm weather is in front of us.

“There will definitely be some spikes of heat as we go into summer when I expect to see temperatures in the high 20Cs or even the low 30Cs," the British Weather Services expert said.

“This is largely because of a balancing effect which, after the colder period of weather over the past couple of months, dominated by a northerly airflow, should revert and come from a more southerly direction.

“This will bring more in the way of hotter weather as we go through the end of spring and into summer.

“This summer could be up there with the warmer ones from the past ten years, it is more likely to turn out one of the warmer ones that to be cooler.”

Firstly, which May Bank Holiday? I can't see a scorcher coming along in the next few days. Secondly, I've never heard of a balancing out between northerly and southerly airflows before. Thirdly, if we peak at 32C this summer it will be quite a low peak compared to many recent summers.

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Tuesday 27 Apr - Thursday 6 May

A settled regime will likely be in place across much of the country at first with high pressure likely to be centred to the west or northwest of the UK. However, there is the threat of some rain and a few showers in the north and east, as well as the chance of some rain moving up from the south and affecting southern parts of the country later. Throughout this period, there is also a continued threat of rural frost and patchy fog where winds fall light. Temperatures are quite uncertain depending on where the area of high pressure resides, particularly in the east where temperatures are likely to struggle above average. Warmer days are most likely to be further inland towards the south and west.

Thursday 6 May - Thursday 20 May

Confidence is low for this period as is typical of spring. The UK will likely see spells of fine, dry weather at times with fair-weather cloud and plenty of sunny spells, as well as an increased likelihood of more unsettled periods when compared to April. All areas expected to see showers or longer spells of rain at times. Temperatures are likely to be close to the average for the time of year, with the possibility of some warmer spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Wednesday 28 Apr - Friday 7 May

High pressure possibly dominating throughout this period, which will bring largely dry and fine conditions with bright spells and variable amounts of cloud. Showers, mostly light, are possible at times, especially across central and eastern parts of the UK. Rain may affect far northern and northwestern areas too, and there is a slight chance of heavy rain and showers also arriving into southern areas for a time. Later in the outlook, there is an increased likelihood of more unsettled periods with showers or longer spells of rain. Temperatures are likely to be near or less than average for this time of year with a risk of overnight frost in rural areas, especially in the north.

Thursday 6 May - Thursday 20 May

Confidence is low for this period as is typical of spring. The UK will likely see spells of fine, dry weather at times with fair-weather cloud and plenty of sunny spells, as well as an increased likelihood of more unsettled periods when compared to April. All areas expected to see showers or longer spells of rain at times. Temperatures are likely to be close to the average for the time of year, with the possibility of some warmer spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Thursday 29 Apr - Saturday 8 May

High pressure possibly dominating throughout this period, which will bring largely dry and fine conditions with bright spells and variable amounts of cloud. Showers, mostly light, are possible at times, especially across central and eastern parts of the UK. Rain may affect far northern and northwestern areas too, and there is a slight chance of heavy rain and showers also arriving into southern areas for a time. Later in the outlook, there is an increased likelihood of more unsettled periods with showers or longer spells of rain. Temperatures are likely to be near or less than average for this time of year with a risk of overnight frost in rural areas, especially in the north.

Friday 7 May - Friday 21 May

Confidence is low for this outlook as is typical of spring. The UK will likely see spells of fine, dry weather at times, but with an increased likelihood of more unsettled conditions when compared to April. All areas could see periods with showers or longer spells of rain. Temperatures could be close to the average for this time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Friday 30 Apr - Sunday 9 May

High pressure possibly dominating throughout this period, which will bring largely dry and fine conditions with bright spells and variable amounts of cloud. Showers, mostly light, are possible at times, especially across central and eastern parts of the UK. Rain may affect far northern and northwestern areas too, and there is a slight chance of heavy rain and showers also arriving into southern areas for a time. Later in the outlook, there is an increased likelihood of more unsettled periods with showers or longer spells of rain. Temperatures are likely to be near or less than average for this time of year with a risk of overnight frost in rural areas, especially in the north.

Saturday 8 May - Saturday 22 May

Confidence is low for this outlook as is typical of spring. The UK will likely see spells of fine, dry weather at times, but with an increased likelihood of more unsettled conditions when compared to April. All areas could see periods with showers or longer spells of rain. Temperatures could be close to the average for this time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Saturday 1 May - Monday 10 May

The cold and showery pattern of previous days is expected to continue to affect the UK at the start of this period, bringing a mixture of sunshine, showers, and a cold east to northeasterly wind. Showers will be most frequent in the north and east, but could become quite widespread overland during the day. Some wintriness is probable over high ground of Scotland. A gradual transition to something more broadly unsettled is expected to follow, with areas of cloud, rain and stronger winds arriving from the west, although the north of the UK could stay in the colder, more showery conditions. Temperatures are likely to be colder than average overall, with chilly nights and occasional overnight frost, but may trend to nearer average for a time.

Monday 10 May - Monday 24 May

Confidence is very low for this outlook as is typical of late spring. A mixture of sunny/clear spells and showers, especially likely at first, but an increased chance of more unsettled weather with stronger winds and longer periods of rain arriving from the Atlantic compared to normal. Temperatures probably starting off cooler than average, but will most likely be around to above average overall.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

THE first week of May could be a snowy one, according to weather graphs.

The white stuff could follow weeks of warm spring weather that has been enjoyed by millions as the lockdown lifts.

The Weather Outlook tweeted an image of the UK with smudges of snow dotted across the map.

 "GFS06z shows the risk of snow in southern counties during the first week of May," they said.

This comes as people enjoy the warmer spring weather and the eased restrictions throughout the country.

A possible bank holiday heatwave has been predicted, which could see temperatures soar to 32C.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/14762961/uk-weather-holiday-heatwave-snow/


BRIAN! 

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https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/14762961/uk-weather-holiday-heatwave-snow/


BRIAN! 

From that dodgy story

The white stuff could follow weeks of warm spring weather that has been enjoyed by millions as the lockdown lifts.

Really? I've experienced more frosts and day to day chill in April than I've ever seen in this part of the world.

 

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