Thats a positive update and the timing has shifted to earlier rather than later. Not great timing in terms of diurnal heating but it is what it is.

Seems like the hill tops could get a decent covering. Caution still advised though Steve.  The feature that brings this mix of rain sleet and snow is still in 'embryonic form' in the Atlantic  and could be subject to 'genetic abnormalities' before it arrives in Kent.

Oh yes ! I've noticed that the 925's climb at Lydd to 0c in association with the core of the precipitation. Shape and angle of attack are crucial. If we can draw in a dry SE'ly before we switch to a WNW'ly we keep snow throughout most of the event. If we draw in a strong SW'ly in its wake then its a rain/sleet event for us before we draw in the colder air later.

Ideal solution would be a SE'ly on its approach, switching WNW'ly as part of the event, a pivot then a NNE'ly wrap around. In that case you're talking 10-15cm away from coasts. That's not too much to ask for is it. We have been patient for 8 years after all ! 

 

Oh yes ! I've noticed that the 925's climb at Lydd to 0c in association with the core of the precipitation. Shape and angle of attack are crucial. If we can draw in a dry SE'ly before we switch to a WNW'ly we keep snow throughout most of the event. If we draw in a strong SW'ly in its wake then its a rain/sleet event for us before we draw in the colder air later.

Ideal solution would be a SE'ly on its approach, switching WNW'ly as part of the event, a pivot then a NNE'ly wrap around. In that case you're talking 10-15cm away from coasts. That's not too much to ask for is it. We have been patient for 8 years after all ! 

That is the dream scenario and requires everything to go right Steve.  I think its advisable to bear in mind that some of the parameters will not play ball and we again may be looking at them thar hills slushy 2cm job.  But I accept that there is a chance of better.  In 24 hours I think we will be much more confident of what is to happen

 

That is the dream scenario and requires everything to go right Steve.  I think its advisable to bear in mind that some of the parameters will not play ball and we again may be looking at them thar hills slushy 2cm job.  But I accept that there is a chance of better.  In 24 hours I think we will be much more confident of what is to happen

I’ll be very confident in 48hrs 😜

Fine lines as is mostly the case in the south of the UK. Still quite a broad range of scenarios on track, timing and intensity so this one will wait until it’s happening.

At some point early Feb all the angst and indecision may be over. There’s nothing marginal about some of the scenarios being put on the table now.

I'm actually slightly more encouraged by the 6z and its slight northward movement as it allows for some last minute southerly corrections. From a SE England perspective its looking extremely encouraging. Its been well modelled too and was picked up as long ago as a week ago.

Ben Rich 

Snow crossing Central and Southern England and Wales could give a few cm's or more ( big emphasis on more )

A lot of uncertainty though 

Yes saw this  but not holding my breath. Tom Schaf's showed the BBC graphics which have rain over Exeter at 0600 area but that band of snow looks a lot smaller and patchier and continued to say there is a lot of uncertainty and that the snow could be further south or north, there could be a fair bit as it's slow moving. Etc.

I'm actually slightly more encouraged by the 6z and its slight northward movement as it allows for some last minute southerly corrections. From a SE England perspective its looking extremely encouraging. Its been well modelled too and was picked up as long ago as a week ago.

 

You are being very "bullish" Steve.  I hope the models are not spouting bull-shit. 

 

 

At some point early Feb all the angst and indecision may be over. There’s nothing marginal about some of the scenarios being put on the table now.

Im pinning my hopes on Mr. Buchan. 😉

I see the Met have ditched the 'wintry hazards' terminology and replaced it with 'Wintry outbreaks' - what's the difference?

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcj2x8gt4#?nearestTo=&date=2021-01-25

UK long range weather forecast

Wednesday 27 Jan - Friday 5 Feb

Friday 5 Feb - Friday 19 Feb

Yes Tally but the wintry outbreaks will bring wintry hazards 

I'd settle for that BUT no more correction please - Still uncertainty on how far North and East it will go , looks to be spinning around well into the evening 

I'd settle for that BUT no more correction please 

Blob of rain over Dartmoor? If that's the case how can we expect Exeter to see snow if Dartmoor can't get any? This is after the main band of course but still? - Just shows how desperate we have all become just to get snow.

I think the BBC graphics are poor anyway, yesterday they showed all of SW under snow as well as Wales - i think i shall stick to the Met office precipitation forecast as they are far more accurate.

Thursday 28 Jan - Saturday 6 Feb

Unsettled conditions look likely to dominate for this period, with low pressure across the UK. Therefore, this should, bring changeable weather to most of the country, with periods of rain, showers, and strong winds at times. While mild westerly and southwesterly winds are expected to be dominant for most of the period, occasional colder northerly winds are possible, bringing a chance of snowfall, likely confined to the far northern parts. Towards the end of the period, we may see high pressure bringing a higher than average chance of cold weather more widely with wintry outbreaks. However, there is a chance of drier than average conditions, which would bring an increased risk of frost and fog.

Saturday 6 Feb - Saturday 20 Feb

Confidence is low for this period, but current signals indicate a possible high pressure system around or near the UK during this period. This would likely bring cold northerly winds, producing colder than average temperatures and wintry outbreaks. The second half of February is likely to have a mixture of weather types, with periods of wet, windy and milder weather interspersed with drier, calmer, colder periods.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Alina Jenkins on BBC weather for the week ahead very confident of a polar reload next weekend after a mild incursion midweek. I’d like to see a more southerly jet, north-west to south-east to back this up and for a more prolonged spell.

Helen Willets

" This evening the snow will push further South again , eventually it will move away after giving a few more cm's " 

Tonight looks as though it will be the coldest night for sometime 

Friday 29 Jan - Sunday 7 Feb

Unsettled conditions look likely to dominate for this period, with low pressure across the UK. Therefore, this should bring changeable weather to most of the country, with periods of rain, showers, and strong winds at times. While mild westerly and southwesterly winds are expected to be dominant for most of the period, occasional colder northerly winds are possible, bringing a chance of snowfall, likely confined to the far northern parts. Towards the end of the period, we may see high pressure bringing a higher than average chance of cold weather more widely with wintry outbreaks. If this were to occur many inland and southern areas would likely see drier than average conditions, with some overnight of frost and fog.

Sunday 7 Feb - Sunday 21 Feb

Confidence is low for this period, but current signals indicate a possible high pressure system around or near the UK during this period. This would likely bring cold northerly winds, producing colder than average temperatures and wintry outbreaks. The second half of February is likely to have a mixture of weather types, with periods of wet, windy and milder weather interspersed with drier, calmer, colder periods.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

CF forecast

N Miller " end of the week , colder air pushes South , next weekend possibility of Snow as rain tries to push in "

Countryfile forecast interesting. It shows the milder air not quite winning the battle as the cold remains over Scotland. However, it suggests colder air returning for all next weekend but with rainbelts to the South, giving the possibility of snow as these fronts run up against the colder air.

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled at first but turning drier and colder.

_________________________________

Saturday 23 January – Sunday 31 January

Changeable pattern of cold snaps and mild spells.

This weekend, as Storm Christoph moves away in Scandinavia, a colder air mass will feed into the UK from the north. This will lead to some lighter winds and sunnier skies at times. But also bring temperatures below average throughout the country. Despite the sunshine in some places, a few weak low pressure systems this weekend will bring a risk of lowland snow to western and southern areas. There will also be a band of snow likely on Sunday moving through southern Wales and England.

For the first half of next week, the colder air mass will remain in place keeping things drier than normal and colder than normal. Some sharp frosts are likely, especially in Scotland. On Tuesday night and into Wednesday, the next low pressure system from the Atlantic will arrive bringing a band of rain spreading northwest across the UK into Wednesday afternoon. This will also bring some milder air from the sub-tropical Atlantic. So after a few colder days, temperatures are expected to recover around midweek. Through the end of the week and following weekend, the weather will continue to be warmer than normal for late-January. It will also be unsettled with some stronger winds at times.

There are some early signals for a potentially stormy weekend to close out January. There is still some uncertainty on the strength and timing of this low pressure system. This may stay out over the ocean. In short, it will be a quite changeable week with a cold, mostly dry. It will be a frosty start and mild, wet, and windy finish.

Monday 1 February – Sunday 7 February

Unsettled and changeable weather continues.

For the first week of February, we don't expect too much to change in the weather pattern from late-January. The low pressure track will continue to send Atlantic weather systems into the UK from the west and southwest making for a changeable week. There will be mild, wet, and windy spells mixed with drier cold snaps with sharp frosts. There will also be a slight chance of some wintry weather even to low levels at times. High pressure is expected to gradually build over Greenland in early February.

This will tend to push the low pressure track further south. This will be a slow process and likely not happen until a bit later in the month. However, there will be plenty of cold air nearby to the north and northeast that will become increasingly widespread. The cold snaps in early-February may tend to feel a bit colder than the ones in late-January. This may last for a few more days. As the low pressure systems move in from the sub-tropical Atlantic, they will be able to tap into some warmer air to give them a bit more energy. There is a chance that we can see another storm push through similar to Storm Christoph. Confidence is pretty high overall for early February for Europe. But for the UK, confidence is a bit lower as we are on the boundary between two different air masses. The difference between the colder and warmer air masses is around 15 Celsius! So minor shifts could lead to some large swings in the expected temperature for a given day.

Monday 8 February – Sunday 21 February

Gradually turning drier but colder.

As we head into the second and third weeks of February, we will likely see a gradual pattern shift away from the more unsettled weather of January to a drier, colder picture. This is because the high pressure system in Greenland from early February will strengthen enough to eventually push lows into South Europe. Therefore, Spain and Italy will get all the wet and windy weather. For the UK, the colder air mass will move in from the north and bring temperatures consistently below average.
This will also be a drier air mass, so rain (or snow rather) is not expected to be as frequent. This will be a gradual change though; likely taking place over several days through mid-February.

There will still be some wet, windy, and mild days at first. By the third week of February and beyond, it will likely be largely dry but cold. The colder air mass will help create some sharp frosts overnight for much of the country. Despite the days growing longer as we head to the end of meteorological winter, late-February could well end up being colder than late-January as air masses continue to shift around. Confidence for middle and late February's weather is still low. There is a lot riding on the exact strength of the Greenland High pressure, which computer models are currently doing a pretty poor job of forecasting.

Further ahead

We will closely monitor the Greenland High's development through late-January and see just how tenacious it might be through February - and how long this cold may linger.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook