Unlike the ECM 00z or GFS 06z output? And that is before we see the ensembles in the FI section. It could very easily be going but it is far too early to draw any conclusion.

Once it starts to go pear shaped it normally stays pear shaped sadly.

 

Ensembles are pretty clear Steve and the UKMO at T144 has now backtracked, the Atlantic is firing up. Let's wait for the ECM and ensembles, but this one (in terms of blocked cold as opposed to transient) for around the Xmas period is slipping away.

 

 

Once it starts to go pear shaped it normally stays pear shaped sadly.

Yes, this can hardly be called a letdown because nothing concrete in terms of pattern has even come within T240, not like the great letdown of 2012 plus multiple others but that's one thing you do find - fail to put the ball in the net and the modern era is down the other end of the field knocking some more zonality in.

 

 

Once it starts to go pear shaped it normally stays pear shaped sadly.

Yes, but that will not be known until we reach the time period, despite insinuations by others (who will go suspiciously quiet if the blocked charts come back again).

 

Yes, but that will not be known until we reach the time period, despite insinuations by others (who will go suspiciously quiet if the blocked charts come back again).

Indeed, it appears that some posters posting frequency is directly correlated to the speed of the jet stream across the Atlantic.

 

Indeed, it appears that some posters posting frequency is directly correlated to the speed of the jet stream across the Atlantic.

Perhaps we could slot their posting frequency into an algorithm as an alternative means of forecasting?

 

Perhaps we could slot their posting frequency into an algorithm as an alternative means of forecasting?

Well to be honest, if I see posts by certain people I don't need to look at the models. 

 

Perhaps we could slot their posting frequency into an algorithm as an alternative means of forecasting?

I have said before that if Shropshire, Jacko and White Meadows are prevalent on the forum, it’s a zonal run. If they are absent, it’s blocked.

The algorithmic reliability is superior to any of the ‘big three’.