Iam suprised the cet is as low as 6.1c to date. Maybe the rest of England has not been as mild as down here on the south coast where we have had 11c-13c for 13 straight days now. The mean here is currently 7.76c. I suppose winter MIGHT arrive eventually or maybe not

Met Office Hadley      6.c      Anomaly      1.2c Provisional to 22nd

Metcheck                   5.90c   Anomaly      0.90c

Netweather                6.55c   Anomaly      1.46c

Peasedown St John   6.61c   Anomaly     -0.09c.        

---

Iam suprised the cet is as low as 6.1c to date. Maybe the rest of England has not been as mild as down here on the south coast where we have had 11c-13c for 13 straight days now. The mean here is currently 7.76c. I suppose winter MIGHT arrive eventually or maybe not

 

6c being easily achievable in December is a relatively new phenomenon. Between 1988 and 2013 the milestone was hit just twice (1994 and 2006) while there were seven beneath 4c.

Since 2013 the 6+s are leading the sub 4s by a margin of 4-0 And expectations have been transformed overnight (in climatological terms)

I’m flummoxed as to how the CET got to 6.0C several days ago and has only crawled up by 0.1C since, in a regime of ultra mild days and nights across both the South and Midlands.

Can only imagine it’s because the North West bit of the CET has compensated with some much colder numbers.

---

I’m flummoxed as to how the CET got to 6.0C several days ago and has only crawled up by 0.1C since, in a regime of ultra mild days and nights across both the South and Midlands.

Can only imagine it’s because the North West bit of the CET has compensated with some much colder numbers.

Last three days CET mean has been 6.8C, 7.7C and 5.5C. 

Last three days at Stonyhurst were 6.5C, 6.0C and 3.3C. So it has indeed been cool in the NW of the CET area which is pulling the figures down.

Nights have been relatively mild here, with little difference in diurnal temps.  But yesterday morning at daybreak the temp dropped by 3 degrees very quickly and gave us a brief frost.  

---

Met Office Hadley        6.0c    Anomaly   1.2c. Provisional to 23rd

Metcheck                     4.88c  Anomaly    0.88c

Netweather                  6.62c  Anomaly    1.53c

Peasedown St John     6.41c   Anomaly    -0.29c.

---

Met Office Hadley       5.9c      Anomaly      1.1c Provisional to 24th

Metcheck                    5.70c    Anomaly      0.71c

Netweather                 6.5c      Anomaly      1.41c

Peasedown St John     6.15c    Anomaly    -0.55c.   

---

Met Office Hadley        5.8c       Anomaly    1.0c Provisional to 25th

Metcheck                     5.59c     Anomaly    0.60c

Netweather                  6.29c     Anomaly    1.2c

Peasedown St John     6.14c     Anomaly     -0.56c. 

---

Met Office Hadley      5.8c  Anomaly    1.0c Provisional to 26th

Metcheck                   6.55c  Anomaly   0.67c

Netweather                6.33c  Anomaly   1.24c

Peasedown St John   6.24c  Anomaly   -0.46c.  

---

MET Office  Hadley       5.7c     Anomaly    1.0c   Provisional to 27th

Metcheck                      5.53c   Anomaly    0.54c

Netweather                  6.28c    Anomaly    1.19c

Peasedown St John      6.1c     Anomaly     -0.6c        

---

Met Office Hadley      5.6c     Anomaly      0.8c provisional to 28th.

Metcheck                   5.37c    Anomaly      0.38c

Netweather                6.11c    Anomaly      1.02c

Peasedown St John   6.4c     Anomaly       -0.3c.

---

Met Office Hadley         5.4c      Anomaly    0.7c Provisional to 29th

Metcheck                      5.22c    Anomaly    0.22c

Netweather                   5.96c    Anomaly    0.87c

Peasedown St John      5.76c    Anomaly    0.94c.  

---

Looking like the CET will probably finish just below 5C now given the very cold end to the month and the likely usual downward adjustment. We had 4.8C back in 2017 and again in 2012. Probably something similar this year. Not had a December colder than this since the infamous 2010.

Despite this December being slightly cool overall, the mean December CET for 2011-2020 will come out at 6.0C which is exceptionally mild. That is 1.4C above the 1981-2010 mean. December is now becoming so mild generally that it is not far off being as warm as March. The March CET mean for 2011-2020 is 6.55C. 4 Decembers in the past decade have been warmer than previous March.

This December has been a month of three distinct weather patterns. Based on my local data the mean temperatures have been as follows:

1-9 Dec 3.3C

10-23 Dec 8.9C

24-30 Dec 2.7C

Overall mean 5.6C

Despite the cold end to December it looks like 2020 will see the the third highest CET mean on record, somewhere around 10.75C.

It is worth noting that since the very cold March of 2013 we have not seen a single month where the CET mean was more than 1.5C below the 1971-2000 mean. In the same period there have been no less than 27 months that came out more than 1.5C above the 1971-2000 mean. The warming trend is so stark now that it is becoming quite frightening.

The new 30 year running CET mean (1991-2020) will come out at 10.22C. This is 0.25C above the 1981-2000 mean and 0.75C above the 1961-1990 mean. The increase in rolling 30 year mean temperatures has been running at about 0.25C per decade for the past three decades now.

1961-1990  9.47C
1971-2000  9.74C (+0.27C)
1981-2010  9.97C (+0.23C)
1991-2020  10.22C (+0.25C)

The trend is continuing although perhaps slowing down a little with the 10 year mean for 2011-2020 coming out at 10.37C. To see another 0.25C increase in the 2001-2030 figures relative to the 1991-2020 figures, the CET mean over the next 10 years would need to be about 10.8C (i.e. similar to the 2020 figure).

Met Office Hadley         5.3c        Anomaly       0.6c. provisional to 30th

Metcheck                      5.06c      Anomaly       0.07c

Netweather                   5.8c        Anomaly       0.71c

Peasedown St John      5.47c      Anomaly      -1.23c.   

---

Amazing stats there Global. That rise in CET is phenomenal, especially when you consider our location. I expect that mainland Europe has witnessed an even sharper rise when you consider the extreme heat that they seem to experience every summer these days.
Personally I enjoy the warmer weather but admit that on a global long term scale the prospects are quite terrifying.

---

Happy New Year!

December's CET confirmed as 4.97C

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2020

 

---

Metcheck very close 4.98c.

---

Yesterday's CET of -1.3C is the first negative CET since 1 February 2019 when a figure of -0.8C was recorded (and heavy snow fell across parts of southern England).

Happy New Year!

December's CET confirmed as 4.97C

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2020

 

Yep, too little too late for my chilly monthly guess, but the last four days ended with official figures of:

28/12 1.0c

29/12 1.0c

30/12 1.0c

31/12 -1.3c

Congratulations to Darren on another annual comp victory!