The GFS 00z demonstrated how rapidly things can shift about in December.
The provisional CET's currently near 1.5°C below the average of the past few decades, but in a rough projection forward using the raw figures from the model, milder weather starting late this week neutralises the anomaly by 14th... and then it climbs well beyond, peaking at about 1°C above average for 19th-20th!
Then, in a further twist to the tale, an Arctic High pounces and bitterly cold easterlies start hammering away at the CET - yet as of run's end on 22nd, it's still about 0.5°C above average.
The actual figures would likely be a few tenths lower, mind, due to the tendency for the provisional figures to be an overestimate.
Anyway - this run involves an Arctic High behaving in the right way to send a deeply cold airmass our way, which makes it inherently low probability. Not saying it can't happen, mind - certain factors are in support of Arctic Highs being able to influence the weather on our side of the hemisphere to some extent or other.
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https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
Keep Calm and Forecast On