Surprised there is no real discussion about the potential for a lingering storm system next weekend over the UK.
Truly something to keep an eye on.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_138_1.png

Surprised there is no real discussion about the potential for a lingering storm system next weekend over the UK.
Truly something to keep an eye on.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_138_1.png

Indeed, quite a notable cut-off low bringing gales to some parts of the UK. Not to mention heavy rain thus making for a wet and unsettled start to the new month.

Is it too soon to say I'm already bored of Autumn?  

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Indeed, quite a notable cut-off low bringing gales to some parts of the UK. Not to mention heavy rain thus making for a wet and unsettled start to the new month.

Is it too soon to say I'm already bored of Autumn?  

This is catching my attention. It almost looks quasi-tropical the way the low deepens rapidly in the Channel with a very defined closed circulation.

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This is catching my attention. It almost looks quasi-tropical the way the low deepens rapidly in the Channel with a very defined closed circulation.

Indeed - and I suspect this is why the meto are concerned about things becoming stormy. Whatever, there's a lot of rain in the mix 

 

This is catching my attention. It almost looks quasi-tropical the way the low deepens rapidly in the Channel with a very defined closed circulation.

The weather pattern of a low deepening rapidly in the Channel while moving NEwards does remind me rather of October '87, though I will leave it to others more expert than myself to explain what the differences are on this occasion (other than the much greater forewarning).

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The weather pattern of a low deepening rapidly in the Channel while moving NEwards does remind me rather of October '87, though I will leave it to others more expert than myself to explain what the differences are on this occasion (other than the much greater forewarning).

I think this upcoming system is more like a slow moving cut-off low containing occluded fronts wrapping around it and hanging around the UK for three or four days. As a result while there'll be some strong wind in places, I suspect rain may end up being much more of a feature.

The Oct' 87 storm was the result of a compact but rapidly developing secondary depression system complete with warm and cold sectors that quickly "slingshot" itself in from the south west directly under a jet stream, hardly any rain came out of it as it moved through so fast but it goes without saying that it was the frightening strong wind that was the main feature (it even gave birth to the "sting jet" term). 

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GFS 06z ensemble confirms the potential for a lot of rain in the SE over the next week

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=6&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&runpara=0&type=10&ext=1 

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GFS 06z ensemble confirms the potential for a lot of rain in the SE over the next week

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=6&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&runpara=0&type=10&ext=1

Making up for the very dry Summer at my neck of the woods. Nature always seem to find a way to balance things out, trouble is flooding will then become an issue and we're only at the beginning of Autumn! 

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Making up for the very dry Summer at my neck of the woods. Nature always seem to find a way to balance things out, trouble is flooding will then become an issue and we're only at the beginning of Autumn! 

A very unsettled run throughout on the GFS 12z, with only some very brief respites on offer. Seems the far NW Scotland may fair best being furthest away from low pressure centres.

I think this upcoming system is more like a slow moving cut-off low containing occluded fronts wrapping around it and hanging around the UK for three or four days. As a result while there'll be some strong wind in places, I suspect rain may end up being much more of a feature.

The Oct' 87 storm was the result of a compact but rapidly developing secondary depression system complete with warm and cold sectors that quickly "slingshot" itself in from the south west directly under a jet stream, hardly any rain came out of it as it moved through so fast but it goes without saying that it was the frightening strong wind that was the main feature (it even gave birth to the "sting jet" term). 

Thanks, Ian.  I was pretty certain that there were essential differences, but not sure exactly what.

And as you say later, it does look wet for this corner of the country.  We seem to have two seasons now, a dry one and a wet one.

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This storm now seems nailed on. GFS still wants to place it further S but ECM, BBC, ICON, ARPEGE all have it close to the S Coast.

Arpege has 50+ moh gusts; ICON has 90mm rainfall accumulation in the Channel only just off the coast

(Note - any posts which were made earlier than this one will appear before it)

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While the storm does seem certain, the BBC 10.45 bulletin this evening conceding there is a fair amount of ‘uncertainty’ over the coming days on who will cop out, and when.
Seems the storm will wollow around for a number of days, and never really releasing it’s grip.

MetO warnings for Friday, wind and rain along the S Coast from Cornwall to Dungeness, but not very far inland.

Storm has been christened Alex by French Met Office

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With the area of low pressure wollowing around, must be bit of a nightmare forecasting and pinpointing belts of rain. With wind, looks like there could be some quieter spells quickly replaced by strong winds as the low pressure centre moves around.

As an aside, a bit early in the season but suggestions of high pressure out to our NE.

MetO warnings for Friday, wind and rain along the S Coast from Cornwall to Dungeness, but not very far inland.

Storm has been christened Alex by French Met Office

Storm naming confusion starting early this year

Met Office have Aiden as their first name but as France got in first for this storm it's gone wrong already

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Yellow Warning out for the rain on Friday.

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Yellow Warning out for the rain on Friday. The Fax chart for Sunday is not very good.

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Storm naming confusion starting early this year

Met Office have Aiden as their first name but as France got in first for this storm it's gone wrong already

As I mentioned earlier on today in the media thread, this is exactly why I believe that there should just be the one single storm naming system for the whole of Europe, even in this post-Brexit era which we are now well into.

That would simplify things a lot better and be less confusing as a result, for the general public out there than the rather fragmented system which is in place for that just now.

 

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Storm now showing a central pressure of 967mb on the fax for midday Friday.

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Looking at certain charts, it suggests some areas will have little or no wind on occasions while at the same time literally just ‘up the road’ there will be gale force conditions.
Not quite eye of the hurricane stuff but along with some large rainfall totals, without the heat seems quite tropical in nature.