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Offline ARTzeman  
#41 Posted : 18 September 2020 09:58:43(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,845
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         15.6c       Anomaly        1.6c

Metcheck                      15.23c     Anomaly         1.57c

Netweather                   15.85c     Anomaly         2.16c

Peasedown St John      14.84c    Anomaly         2.31c.            

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Saint Snow  
#42 Posted : 18 September 2020 12:29:17(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

Never mind finishing above 15°C, the last GFS run called into question finishing above 14°C!

The 12z gives me a final CET estimate in the high 13s - but it's a particularly cool run for next Friday onward.

The 06z led to a low 14s estimate and to my eyes, the 12z ECM looks to be headed along a similar path as of day ten.

 

Much like with August, there's a cool-warm-cool shape to the month unfolding. Also like that month, the degree of error for be looks to me mainly down to the magnitude of warmth during the middle phase - though it's not out of the question that something like the GFS 12z unfolds and makes the cool final phase the main source of error instead. We are in a La Nina now, after all - mid-Atlantic ridges have boosted odds.

 

Oh, FFS

"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Saint Snow  
#43 Posted : 18 September 2020 13:55:12(UTC)
Saint Snow

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If the impending cooler spell does drag the CET down into the low-14's it'll be the 3rd or 4th time this year alone where a big change late in the month (that was unforeseen) has stopped me doing better, and allowing others to salvage what would/should have been a bad month for them.

I know the CET comp is only a bit of fun, but it's a bit frustrating. I don't mind being way out when I've totally misread it, but to guess the general pattern right (coolish, warming, warm, cooler) and seem to be on the money halfway through the month, only to be undone by some extreme at the end is annoying.

"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline ARTzeman  
#44 Posted : 19 September 2020 09:50:03(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

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Posts: 27,845
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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley           15.5c        Anomaly       1.5c. Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                        15.18c      Anomaly       1.46c

Netweather                      15.76c     Anomaly       2.07c

Peasedown St John       14.9c        Anomaly        2.37c.    

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline ARTzeman  
#45 Posted : 20 September 2020 09:53:02(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,845
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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley  No change    15.5c        Anomaly      1.5c Provisional to 19th

Metcheck               No change    15.18c      Anomaly      1.46c

Netweather            N0 change    15.76c      Anomaly     2.07c

Peasedown St John                  14.91c      Anomaly     2.38c

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline ARTzeman  
#46 Posted : 21 September 2020 09:54:05(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,845
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         15.5c       Anomaly        1.6c. Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                      15.11c     Anomaly        1.38c

Netweather                   15.76c     Anomaly        2.07c

Peasedown St john      15.0c      Anomaly        2.47c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Saint Snow  
#47 Posted : 21 September 2020 12:30:11(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Location: St Helens

Amazed the CET actually decreased between the 18th and 20th. Was lovely here.

 

 

"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Gavin P  
#48 Posted : 21 September 2020 16:25:02(UTC)
Gavin P

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United Kingdom

Nights have been cooling down Saint. 

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://gavsweathervids.com/

Offline Saint Snow  
#49 Posted : 21 September 2020 20:39:57(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Gavin P Go to Quoted Post

Nights have been cooling down Saint. 

 

True, but they've only been getting down to 9/10c, whilst daytime maxes are topping 20-22c

I wouldn't have thought that a daily CET of 15-16c would lead to a reduction in a 15.6c rolling CET when we're two-thirds through the month.

 

"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Caz  
#50 Posted : 22 September 2020 05:20:30(UTC)
Caz

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Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

 

 

True, but they've only been getting down to 9/10c, whilst daytime maxes are topping 20-22c

I wouldn't have thought that a daily CET of 15-16c would lead to a reduction in a 15.6c rolling CET when we're two-thirds through the month.

 

Been down to 6c here though. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Saint Snow  
#51 Posted : 22 September 2020 08:20:33(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

Been down to 6c here though. 

 

Really?  

 

"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline ARTzeman  
#52 Posted : 22 September 2020 09:59:09(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,845
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley          15.5c       Anomaly      1.6c

Metcheck                       15.43c     Anomaly      1.40c

Netweather                    15.73c     Anomaly      2.04c

Peasedown St John       15.05c     Anomaly      2.5c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Saint Snow  
#53 Posted : 22 September 2020 11:17:40(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 48,355
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Location: St Helens

We could now see 4 of the last 8 days with CET returns below 10c, and the others generally between 10-13c.

That's going drag the CET down to around 14.2c to 14.5c.

Bugger.

"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Robertski  
#54 Posted : 22 September 2020 22:33:57(UTC)
Robertski

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Joined: 07/06/2008(UTC)
Posts: 1,914
Location: Nottinghamshire

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

 

 

Really?  

 

 

And here.

Offline Caz  
#55 Posted : 23 September 2020 08:15:35(UTC)
Caz

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Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 20,798
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

 

 

Really?  

 

Yes, with very clear nights. It was actually 5.2c on 18th and 5.8c on 21st. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline ARTzeman  
#56 Posted : 23 September 2020 09:56:05(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,845
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office  Hadley           15.5c       Anomaly        1.6c. Provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                         15.21c     Anomaly        1.49c

Netweather                      15.77c     Anomaly         2.08c

Peasedown St John        15.01c      Anomaly      2.48c.  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Saint Snow  
#57 Posted : 23 September 2020 10:33:52(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 48,355
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

Yes, with very clear nights. It was actually 5.2c on 18th and 5.8c on 21st. 

 

Didn't get into single figures here - indeed earlyish Monday morning (8am) the temp was 12.1c with thin cloud cover (that burnt off by around 10am). 

 

Just hoping that nights this week are cloudy to keep the minimums up, whilst the days reach a degree or two higher than forecasted. Would love to have made an 'out on a limb' forecast and been close.

"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline Caz  
#58 Posted : 23 September 2020 19:10:52(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 20,798
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Thinking of GW today. It’s his dad’s funeral. X

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline ARTzeman  
#59 Posted : 24 September 2020 09:50:55(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,845
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley          15.4c           Anomaly         1.6c. Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                       15.04c         Anomaly         1.31c

Netweather                    15.7c           Anomaly         2.01c

Peasedown St John       14.88c        Anomaly         2.35c. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline ARTzeman  
#60 Posted : 25 September 2020 09:50:25(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,845
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley           25.2c           Anomaly       1.4c. Provisional to 24th

Metcheck                        14.80c         Anomaly       1.08c

Netweather                     15.47c         Anomaly       1.78c

Peasedown St John        14.56c        Anomaly       2.03c.  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

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