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September UK Temperature analysis and discussion
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC) Posts: 9,343   Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire
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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow  14.9c (or 15c!) is a great estimate, if only a couple of people have gone higher - even if it were to end at 17c. But if half (or more) entries are above you, then it's not at all great. I would guess that you and I will be about two-thirds up the table for this month once we have the ranked list. My guess is 90% went for below 15c |
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 55,465  Location: St Helens
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Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman  My guess is 90% went for below 15c Hope you're right! |
Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics." Aneurin Bevan
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 23,947   Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 15,451  Location: Folkestone
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Originally Posted by: Whether Idle  Something of a schoolboy error from Steve there, I made a similarly huge mistake in July and that ruined my shot this year. Its an unforgiving competition Phil. One big error and you're out of the game.  |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,249  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 14.8c Anomaly 0.4c. Provisional to 11th. Metcheck 14.56c Anomaly 0.84c Netweather 15.08c Anomaly 1.39c Peasedown St John 13.9c Anomaly 1.37c . |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,249  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 14.8c. Anomaly 0.5c. Provisional to12tg. Metcheck 14.63c Anomaly 0.91c Netweather 15.45c Anomaly 1.45c Peasedown St John 13.9c Anomaly 1.57c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,249  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 15.0c Anomaly 0.8c. provisional to13th. Metcheck 14.79c Anomaly 1.07c Netweather 15.33c Anomaly 1.64c Peasedown St John 14.0c Anomaly 1.49c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,249  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 15.2c Anomaly 1.1c Provisional to 14th. Metcheck 15.04c Anomaly 1.32c Netweather 15.54c Anomaly 1.85c Peasedown St John 14.2c Anomaly 1.67c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC) Posts: 6,714  Location: Chineham, Basingstoke
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Thanks everyone for your kind comments. It has been a difficult time. It was necessary to have a post-mortem and the results only came through late today. Funeral is next Wednesday. I will be back after that. No CET tracker this month but the predictions are listed below. Table |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 23,947   Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Originally Posted by: Global Warming  Thanks everyone for your kind comments. It has been a difficult time. It was necessary to have a post-mortem and the results only came through late today. Funeral is next Wednesday. I will be back after that. No CET tracker this month but the predictions are listed below. Thanks GW! It’s good to hear from you. I don’t think any of us expected you to post under such difficult circumstances. I know it sometimes helps to do something ‘normal‘ during life’s traumas but please don’t feel that you have to. We can wait. I hope life starts to get a little kinder to you. X |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,249  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Thanks for the chart,GW. Bottom already. Our thoughts will be with you. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 1,385   Location: St Albans
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It's very good of you to keep this going with everything else happening in your life right now. We're thinking of you at this difficult time. All I can say about the predictions is "Oh dear, I wasn't expecting the month to pan out like this at all!" |
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl) Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl) |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 55,465  Location: St Helens
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Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman  My guess is 90% went for below 15c You win. Excellent! |
Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics." Aneurin Bevan
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 55,465  Location: St Helens
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Originally Posted by: Global Warming  Thanks everyone for your kind comments. It has been a difficult time. It was necessary to have a post-mortem and the results only came through late today. Funeral is next Wednesday. I will be back after that. No CET tracker this month but the predictions are listed below. Table Thanks, GW, and hope you're alright. As Caz says, don't feel under any pressure with this comp. Just look after yourself and family. |
Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics." Aneurin Bevan
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC) Posts: 9,343   Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire
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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow  Question now is can it remain above 15c . Last week of September looks uncertain. |
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,249  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 15.5c Anomaly 1.4c. Provisional to 15th. Metcheck 15.36c Anomaly 1.64c Netweather 15.79c Anomaly 2.1c Peasedown St John 14.72c Anomaly 2.19c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 02/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 110 Location: London
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Originally Posted by: Global Warming  Thanks everyone for your kind comments. It has been a difficult time. It was necessary to have a post-mortem and the results only came through late today. Funeral is next Wednesday. I will be back after that. No CET tracker this month but the predictions are listed below. Table Sending best wishes.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 55,465  Location: St Helens
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Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman  Question now is can it remain above 15c . Last week of September looks uncertain. Yeah, that is a worry - hopefully it'll be up toward 16c before the last week, and not drop too dramatically |
Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics." Aneurin Bevan
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,249  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 15.6c Anomaly 1.5c. Provisional to 16th. Metcheck 15.34c Anomaly 1.62c Netweather 15.9c Anomaly 2.21c Peasedown St John 14.96c Anomaly 2.43c |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 12,076  Location: West Hants
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Never mind finishing above 15°C, the last GFS run called into question finishing above 14°C! The 12z gives me a final CET estimate in the high 13s - but it's a particularly cool run for next Friday onward. The 06z led to a low 14s estimate and to my eyes, the 12z ECM looks to be headed along a similar path as of day ten. Much like with August, there's a cool-warm-cool shape to the month unfolding. Also like that month, the degree of error for be looks to me mainly down to the magnitude of warmth during the middle phase - though it's not out of the question that something like the GFS 12z unfolds and makes the cool final phase the main source of error instead. We are in a La Nina now, after all - mid-Atlantic ridges have boosted odds. |
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Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2021's Homeland Extremes: T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb) Keep Calm and Forecast On |
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