14.9c (or 15c!) is a great estimate, if only a couple of people have gone higher - even if it were to end at 17c.

But if half (or more) entries are above you, then it's not at all great.

 

I would guess that you and I will be about two-thirds up the table for this month once we have the ranked list.

 

My guess is 90% went for below 15c

 

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My guess is 90% went for below 15c

 

 

Hope you're right! 

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I went for 14.5c.  

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 Something of a schoolboy error from Steve there, I made a similarly huge  mistake in July and that ruined my shot this year.

Its an unforgiving competition Phil. One big error and you're out of the game. 

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Met Office Hadley         14.8c       Anomaly     0.4c. Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                      14.56c     Anomaly     0.84c

Netweather                   15.08c     Anomaly     1.39c

Peasedown St John      13.9c       Anomaly     1.37c .

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Met Office Hadley          14.8c.        Anomaly       0.5c. Provisional to12tg.

Metcheck                       14.63c       Anomaly       0.91c

Netweather                    15.45c       Anomaly       1.45c

Peasedown St John      13.9c        Anomaly         1.57c.  

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Met Office Hadley         15.0c        Anomaly       0.8c. provisional to13th.

Metcheck                      14.79c      Anomaly       1.07c

Netweather                   15.33c      Anomaly       1.64c

Peasedown St John     14.0c        Anomaly       1.49c. 

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Met Office Hadley          15.2c        Anomaly         1.1c Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                       15.04c      Anomaly         1.32c

Netweather                    15.54c      Anomaly         1.85c 

Peasedown St John      14.2c        Anomaly         1.67c.     

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Thanks everyone for your kind comments. It has been a difficult time. It was necessary to have a post-mortem and the results only came through late today. Funeral is next Wednesday. I will be back after that.

No CET tracker this month but the predictions are listed below.

Table

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Thanks everyone for your kind comments. It has been a difficult time. It was necessary to have a post-mortem and the results only came through late today. Funeral is next Wednesday. I will be back after that.

No CET tracker this month but the predictions are listed below.

Thanks GW!  It’s good to hear from you.  I don’t think any of us expected you to post under such difficult circumstances.  I know it sometimes helps to do something ‘normal‘ during life’s traumas but please don’t feel that you have to.  We can wait.  I hope life starts to get a little kinder to you.  X

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Thanks for the chart,GW. Bottom already.

Our thoughts will be with you.

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It's very good of you to keep this going with everything else happening in your life right now. We're thinking of you at this difficult time.

All I can say about the predictions is "Oh dear, I wasn't expecting the month to pan out like this at all!"

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My guess is 90% went for below 15c

 

 

You win. 

Excellent! 

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Thanks everyone for your kind comments. It has been a difficult time. It was necessary to have a post-mortem and the results only came through late today. Funeral is next Wednesday. I will be back after that.

No CET tracker this month but the predictions are listed below.

Table

 

Thanks, GW, and hope you're alright. As Caz says, don't feel under any pressure with this comp. Just look after yourself and family. 

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You win. 

Excellent! 

 

Question now is can it remain above 15c . Last week of September looks uncertain.

 

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Met Office Hadley        15.5c        Anomaly        1.4c.  Provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                     15.36c      Anomaly         1.64c

Netweather                  15.79c      Anomaly         2.1c

Peasedown St John     14.72c      Anomaly       2.19c.           

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Thanks everyone for your kind comments. It has been a difficult time. It was necessary to have a post-mortem and the results only came through late today. Funeral is next Wednesday. I will be back after that.

No CET tracker this month but the predictions are listed below.

Table

Sending best wishes.

Question now is can it remain above 15c . Last week of September looks uncertain.

 

Yeah, that is a worry - hopefully it'll be up toward 16c before the last week, and not drop too dramatically 

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Met Office Hadley            15.6c         Anomaly      1.5c. Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                         15.34c       Anomaly      1.62c

Netweather                      15.9c         Anomaly      2.21c

Peasedown St John       14.96c        Anomaly       2.43c   

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Never mind finishing above 15°C, the last GFS run called into question finishing above 14°C!

The 12z gives me a final CET estimate in the high 13s - but it's a particularly cool run for next Friday onward.

The 06z led to a low 14s estimate and to my eyes, the 12z ECM looks to be headed along a similar path as of day ten.

 

Much like with August, there's a cool-warm-cool shape to the month unfolding. Also like that month, the degree of error for be looks to me mainly down to the magnitude of warmth during the middle phase - though it's not out of the question that something like the GFS 12z unfolds and makes the cool final phase the main source of error instead. We are in a La Nina now, after all - mid-Atlantic ridges have boosted odds.

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