Jetstream producing a series of big loops dipping down to the British Isles developing inti cut-off lows. Loop #1 Thu 1st turns into cut-off low over NW France Sat 3rd dispersing Tue 6th; loop #2 Sun 11th becomes cutoff low in Biscay Tue 13th broadening and drifting N to UK Thu 15th.
GFS - Trough moving in from NW Thu 1st becomes intense LP 980 mb Biscay Sat 3rd drifting N-wards and filling by Wed 7th. After a brief lull, trough developing from Norway to SW England, twin centres not especially deep over Norway and Cornwall Sun 11th; that over Norway moves E and fills but that over Cornwall hangs around 995 mb Wed 1th and then showing a link to developing LP off Greenland.
GEFS - mean of temps a couple of degrees below seasonal norm through to Thu 15th in S, Scotland has a brief above-average moment around Sun 4th (also a couple of v. warm outliers towards the end of this); rain quite general with biggest peaks Thu 1st and Sat 3rd in S, more spread out in Scotland and N
ECM - same general pattern to start with but the LP in Biscay shown on GFS is replaced with one 975 mb Kent Sun 4th, filling more slowly and indeed never really getting away from the UK, shallow LP still covers all Uk Fri 9th
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl