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The big problem or risk with a block to the east, depending on its location, is that the low pressure train across the Atlantic will just decay over the U.K. or get deflected northwards leaving us in a “nothingness” semi-permanent Col-like situation - high pressure to our east low to the west.Beyond a big blob of high pressure over Russia flirting unsuccessfully with Scandinavia I am not seeing too much of interest in the next couple of weeks in terms of actual weather.
The big problem or risk with a block to the east, depending on its location, is that the low pressure train across the Atlantic will just decay over the U.K. or get deflected northwards leaving us in a “nothingness” semi-permanent Col-like situation - high pressure to our east low to the west.
Beyond a big blob of high pressure over Russia flirting unsuccessfully with Scandinavia I am not seeing too much of interest in the next couple of weeks in terms of actual weather.
Aye - as many different versions of a block to the east weve seen over the past week or so, none of them look particularly cold. I think I saw one that delivered some snow.
Mostly its just a cool and maybe frosty setup. Even then - we know frost is usually at a premium from a stiff dry easterly breeze.
And that's what happens when we get a block over us , lets get the HP here and keep the fingers crossed
Looks like an eye candy with the block over Greenland to bring down northerlies.- However I am not getting too excited at this range - we have already had several flips of late as you know and it's not even winter yet!? What happened to that easterly mid November and then 3rd week of November (Now) and then end of November which models were picking up on - yet only to be let down nearer the time.- More runs needed and with such a cold stratosphere, driving the PV and record breaking zonal winds we are experiencing isn't going to favour much if any HLB. But we shall see what ENSEMBLES show because if this 06z GFS is an outlier then we can forget it.
I’ve seen worse runs. The 6z is full of ‘potential’. More runs needed.
A key message to take from the models is how quickly a pattern seemingly locked in can switch. It doesn't mean that it will but it should show that writing off the prospects for a colder period is unsound.
I'll start a new thread at 15:00.
I've just added in charts going back to 1960. Just looking through 62/63 and am thinking there wouldn't be enough upper level cold in the NH to sustain a winter like it now.
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/reanalysis.aspx?year=1963&month=Dec&dom=24&var=tmp®ion=Eur&level=850&hour=00