Onwards...

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The return of the jet that Dew mentioned earlier is reflected in the 6z GFS Op, and allows an elongated low to intensify and slip SE towards us by 18th then over us by 19th. Sub 5C uppers and tightened isobars have the potential for huge contrast to current conditions over many parts of the country.

Add - by 22nd cool northerlies bring sub 10C surface temps to the Highlands and only perhaps 15 in the S.

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Onwards...

 

Regarding your post on the previous thread, I'd not encountered the Tropical Night thing before – saw it on the Beeb forecast today. Is it a new term?

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Regarding your post on the previous thread, I'd not encountered the Tropical Night thing before – saw it on the Beeb forecast today. Is it a new term?

It's new to me too. 

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It's new to me too. 

It's been around for a couple of years, but (understandably) has been used a lot of late. The Met Office use it to mean a night where the low is 20C or higher.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_night

 

 

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Not that unusual in London I wouldn't of thought. Most if not all recent summers (since 2000 say) have at least one night where the temp fails to get below 20c. They are certainly becoming more common due to GW for sure.

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A new type of forecast chart for me - based on the ECM ensembles, I think. From the Met Office Tweet earlier, about the next 10 days. The signal for low pressure next week is strong and they emphasised how much cooler and fresher it'll feel by this time next week. Hurrah!

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1293585537429889028

 

 

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A new type of forecast chart for me - based on the ECM ensembles, I think. From the Met Office Tweet earlier, about the next 10 days. The signal for low pressure next week is strong and they emphasised how much cooler and fresher it'll feel by this time next week. Hurrah!

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1293585537429889028

 

 

 

will come as a massive relief to many. 

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A new type of forecast chart for me - based on the ECM ensembles, I think. From the Met Office Tweet earlier, about the next 10 days. The signal for low pressure next week is strong and they emphasised how much cooler and fresher it'll feel by this time next week. Hurrah!

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1293585537429889028

 

 

Boo, Hiss, 

Seen them use this type of chart quite a few times. Quite handy for a quick glance. Shows how in previous runs, the low pressure signal wasnt really there and how quickly it appears to have picked up on the more unsettled outlook.

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Looking at the ensembles it will be struggling to reach 20c next week, back to dull cool garbage sadly, unless the ensembles are wrong!

Onwards...

and downwards 

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and downwards 

It's been "interesting" - but interesting can get wearisome very quickly.

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It's been "interesting" - but interesting can get wearisome very quickly.

 

Agreed. This “interesting” heatwave got wearisome after two days.

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and downwards 

just in time for my weeks camping holiday in wales. 
looking at the output I think I will give it a miss this year, that’s three successive years where the week before is hot then our week away turns into a rain sodden nightmare 

just in time for my weeks camping holiday in wales. 
looking at the output I think I will give it a miss this year, that’s three successive years where the week before is hot then our week away turns into a rain sodden nightmare 

It looks as though we are about to be reminded of why the now-defunct Spanish package holiday industry developed after so many people got entirely fed up with looking out of the B&B or tent at the pouring rain in the 1950s and 60s, when experiencing the traditional British summer.

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For what it’s worth this morning’s set have the mega churning low a bit more to the South West, before finally making its way over us. Not quite as bad as yesterday.

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Certainly doesn't look cool to me next week. Looks average at worst with a hint of a stalling low that may shovel up more warmth, if briefly

I'd be keeping an eye on the possibility of heatwave conditions returning next week. Not suggesting it's the favoured outcome yet but things look finally balanced to me.

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The “afterwave” will be an interesting if messy period. Let’s say today is the last official, thundery day of the initial heatwave, with a possible 29 or 30C somewhere.

After that we have a period where warm uppers linger for some time. But because of the heat that preceded it, this will not be remembered as a specific spell of weather. A bit like the second beast of March 2018, the first warm week of August 1999, the warm weather of mid Aug 2003, or the wind storms of February 1990.

Out of interest I’m going to keep tabs on the stats for the week beginning tomorrow until next Thursday.

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Despite the usual hysteria on here from certain quarters, next week looks decidedly average (who knew?).

For example, the models imply 23c on Tuesday and Wednesday in London and largely dry. Hardly the epic rainfest of TWO myth.

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