I'm starting to wonder if we've all gone too high .
Truly abysmal month and so typical for the weather to be poor as soon as the lockdown is eased after weeks of glorious weather during a spell where sitting on a bench required a talking to from the police

Met Office Hadley         15.3c      Anomaly     -0.4c.  Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                      15.7c      Anomaly     -1.39c

Netweather                   15.48c    Anomaly     -1.03c

Peasedown St John      14.9c      Anomaly      -2.98c  

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A new low today of 12.3C (-2.7C)
It will creep up now for a while.

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A new low today of 12.3C (-2.7C)
It will creep up now for a while.

Sounds bleak up there Four.

A mean of 16.6c so far here which equates to approximately 0.5c below the local LTA

 

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Met Office Hadley            15.3c        Anomaly      -0.5c Provisional to 10th

Metcheck                          14.87c     Anomaly      -1.59c

Netweather                       15.45c     Anomaly      -1.05c

Peasedown st John          15.2c       Anomaly       -2.6c.   

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So much uncertainty afoot - how exactly the lows move about next week and now this interacts with high pressure attempting to build through southern UK in response to some rise in atmospheric angular momentum sourced in the tropics.

Though AAM looks unlikely to move out of the negative, the rising trend should be enough to promote a warmer or even much warmer overall pattern for the UK - just not reliably settled.

BUT there is a lack of clarity regarding the Arctic pressure patterns and how much they will force the polar jet southward, near enough to keep injecting some polar maritime air into the mix across the UK from time to time.

 

Yesterday's 12z GFS & ECM runs gave a cool (temp-wise!) outlook with limited warmth to lift the CET much from where it is now.

Today's 00z runs are a very different story, a bit jump back to being more like yesterday's 00z runs, but with an even warmer outlook.

Despite its issue with tending to keep temps too low under high pressure, the GFS 00z brings my rough CET estimate into the 16s°C by 20th & 17s°C by 25th. That involved a reloading heat pattern, though, so not the most dependable of outcomes.

On the other hand, the ECM 00z looks conducive to similar events, though higher Arctic pressure lowers confidence in the direction of travel after day 10.

Overall, I'm really not sure what to expect in terms of how much CET climb occurs next week, let alone the one after. It's an uncomfortable time for those who went for a July CET in the mid-17s or higher. It certainly looks plausible but feels like one of a very broad range of possible landing points, IMO still reaching as far down as the low 16s°C despite this morning's considerable shift warmer in the guidance.

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We’re at the mid July 1990/1998 stage. Which of those two ways will it go?

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Better agreement on the warm outcome from the 12z runs. Need consistency through tomorrow before I really start to relax about it, though.

In the meantime, I can relax by putting it out of my mind, starting with the help of certain liquids this evening .

Have a great weekend, everyone - as summer starts to push back for many of us .

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Met Office Hadley            15.1c        Anomaly      -07c Provisional to 10th.

Metcheck                         14.72c       Anomaly       -1.75c

Netweather                      15.32c       Anomaly       -1.19c

Peasedown St John       15.02c        Anomaly        -2.78c.           

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A very poor CET so far this month with consistently below average returns. No change in the next few days. By the end of next week there might be something a bit warmer. But the models have been falsely hinting at "jam tomorrow" for the past couple of weeks. So I remain quite sceptical. A good chance of the CET finishing below 16C this month. Anyone hoping for a 17C+ month is looking to be on very shaky ground. Most likely position at the moment is a final number between 16.0 and 16.5C (i.e. slightly below average).

Worth noting that my CET estimate is running 0.37C below Hadley at present. CET up to yesterday is estimated at just 14.77C. By 15 July it will still only be at 14.86C. A really shocking first half of July on the cards. That is 1.33C below the 1981-2010 mean. Could be the coldest first half of July since 2004 which saw a figure of just 14.45C.

CHART1

CHART2

We’re at the mid July 1990/1998 stage. Which of those two ways will it go?

 

Good point- first 10 days of July 1990 only averaged 14.2- yet it finished just shy of the milestone 17.

Caution with my optimism though as the GFS Op has been riding high in the Ens spread of late, although with some support from the ECM.

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My glass is still half full, as always and forever the optimist!  I doubt we’ll reach my 17.5c guess but I think we’ll see it rising now.  My gut feeling is we’ll get a blast of heat for a few days in the second half of the month.  Nothing at all scientific of course!   

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Met Ofice Hadley          15.0c       Anomaly        -0.8c    Provisional to 11th

Metcheck                      14.61c     Anomaly        -1.85c

Netweather                   15.2c       Anomaly        -1.3c

Peasedown St John      14.81c     Anomaly        -2.99c                  

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Met Ofice Hadley          15.0c       Anomaly        -0.8c    Provisional to 11th

Hopefully there is plenty of time for it to warm up to around 15.7c for the months end. 

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Hopefully there is plenty of time for it to warm up to around 15.7c for the months end. 

What will happen is, if your luck’s like mine, the temp will make a steady and promising move to your prediction, you’ll start to feel smug, then we’ll get something extreme and it’ll end way past it!  So I hope you’re luckier than me!  

Actually, it’s lovely today and suits me fine.  Sunshine and in the low 20’s.  Anything hotter than mid 20’s and I want to be in a pool or the sea!  

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Met Office Hadley          15.0c        Anomaly        -0.9c Provisional to 12th

Metcheck                       14.80c      Anomaly        -1.66c

Netweather                    15.24c      Anomaly        -1.27c

Peasedown St John       15.2c        Anomaly        -2.6c  

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Frustrating to see the ridge almost, but not quite, building across enough to bring the CET region some very warm weather. 

First today through Wed was lost, now the weekend is losing its grip - just ECM suggesting very warm conditions hanging on through Fri from Sat.

The tropical forcing is continuing to be toward the ridges making it further east so in theory there should come a point when we see longer spells of above-normal temps rather than just a couple of days here and there. A bit of hard luck this week I feel - the ingredients were there but the pot was stirred the wrong way.

Starting to suspect that a shift warmer, if it does come along (I never assume anything!), won't happen soon enough to get the CET into the 17s. It's a shame scientifically speaking, as we almost had a spectacular forecasting success from the longer-range ECM and CFSv2, which were as of late June showing a switch to above-normal temps around mid-month.

Admittedly, I'm coming to regret deciding not to just make another boring really near-average prediction - the weather's not been that bad down here overall - today was plenty warm for example - so it's only the CET trouble that's a bother! 

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CET 15.1°C (-0.8C) provisional to 13th.

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Metcheck           14.94c      Anomaly     -1.52c

Netweather        15.37c      Anomaly     -1.13c

Peasedown St John  15.41c  Anomaly    -2.39c              

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Frustrating to see the ridge almost, but not quite, building across enough to bring the CET region some very warm weather. 

First today through Wed was lost, now the weekend is losing its grip - just ECM suggesting very warm conditions hanging on through Fri from Sat.

The tropical forcing is continuing to be toward the ridges making it further east so in theory there should come a point when we see longer spells of above-normal temps rather than just a couple of days here and there. A bit of hard luck this week I feel - the ingredients were there but the pot was stirred the wrong way.

Starting to suspect that a shift warmer, if it does come along (I never assume anything!), won't happen soon enough to get the CET into the 17s. It's a shame scientifically speaking, as we almost had a spectacular forecasting success from the longer-range ECM and CFSv2, which were as of late June showing a switch to above-normal temps around mid-month.

Admittedly, I'm coming to regret deciding not to just make another boring really near-average prediction - the weather's not been that bad down here overall - today was plenty warm for example - so it's only the CET trouble that's a bother! 

Yes, it’s a tad disappointing after the beautiful Spring we had!  I’m still holding out hope for a better August this year as it’s about time the English school holidays were blessed with good weather!  Saint Swithin’s Day tomorrow, so I hope it doesn’t rain otherwise, according to weather folklore, it’ll rain for forty days!  

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