So much uncertainty afoot - how exactly the lows move about next week and now this interacts with high pressure attempting to build through southern UK in response to some rise in atmospheric angular momentum sourced in the tropics.
Though AAM looks unlikely to move out of the negative, the rising trend should be enough to promote a warmer or even much warmer overall pattern for the UK - just not reliably settled.
BUT there is a lack of clarity regarding the Arctic pressure patterns and how much they will force the polar jet southward, near enough to keep injecting some polar maritime air into the mix across the UK from time to time.
Yesterday's 12z GFS & ECM runs gave a cool (temp-wise!) outlook with limited warmth to lift the CET much from where it is now.
Today's 00z runs are a very different story, a bit jump back to being more like yesterday's 00z runs, but with an even warmer outlook.
Despite its issue with tending to keep temps too low under high pressure, the GFS 00z brings my rough CET estimate into the 16s°C by 20th & 17s°C by 25th. That involved a reloading heat pattern, though, so not the most dependable of outcomes.
On the other hand, the ECM 00z looks conducive to similar events, though higher Arctic pressure lowers confidence in the direction of travel after day 10.
Overall, I'm really not sure what to expect in terms of how much CET climb occurs next week, let alone the one after. It's an uncomfortable time for those who went for a July CET in the mid-17s or higher. It certainly looks plausible but feels like one of a very broad range of possible landing points, IMO still reaching as far down as the low 16s°C despite this morning's considerable shift warmer in the guidance.
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T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
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