Ideal scenario is the big deep spinning low does indeed form, but does so 500 miles further west than currently modelled. Then we’ll be challenging August 1995 and 1997.

20-25% of the EC ens runs do this with low to mid 30s in the SE next week.

Even the EC op threatens something suddenly hot right at the end of the run. Hope springs eternal.

Heaven knows where they got this from. Just seen a chilly 18C as the max at the end of next week for East Anglia.

I am actually inclined to agree with you David.

These heatwaves often take a lot longer to shift than the models suggest, and there have been countless examples where the models have overcooked low pressure returning in an attempt to return to normality.

I think its obviously going to cool down but I'm not so sure we are about to see autumn arriving early.

Agreed. Nine times out of ten these modelled epic lows fail to trouble the scorers. Most likely we will end up with something decidedly average which will be welcomed by many, including me. My garden is suffering and I’m wilting in the night heat. 

25c at midnight ain’t funny. 

Looking forward to the cooler weather coming as it will be warmer here 😂

And hopefully a bit drier than recently too!

I've been keeping an eye out for some much-needed rain on the models for a while now - all this talk of arks etc made me hopeful, but GFS is see-sawing between showing silly amounts (e.g. 19mm/3 hours in the 0z run) to practically nothing (as per yesterday's 18z). The law of sod dictates the latter is more likely, but showers and storms are, of course, very tricky to predict.

 

And hopefully a bit drier than recently too!

From the Scttish perspective, that is - could you send some this way, please? No measurable rainfall here for weeks ..jus a chance tomorrow or Thursday?

GFS currently showing broad ridge of HP still present with slack LP to the S until Tue 18th when the ridge is split by a deeper LP setting over the UK 985mb by Thu 20th (centred in lowland Scotland - again?!). HP resumes in the S toWed 26th but with some LP drifting in from the W

GEFS in the S - temps dropping irregularly back to norm by Mon 17th and many more spikes of rainfall than yesterday 13th- 22nd. In Scotland a steadier and slower decline to norm; after immediate rainfall there's a dry period to Mon 17th when it kicks off again.

ECM similar to GFS but cooler and more W-ly at end of run (Fri 21st)

Models seem keen on extending the warmth mid/high 20s Friday to Sunday. 

Models seem keen on extending the warmth mid/high 20s Friday to Sunday. 

Just like when we were on unsettled spell kept extending all the time so hope this will do the same to make up for poor early start to summer.

Met Office seasonal probability model (GLOSEA 5) has been updated as well as ensemble mean seasonal:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

Can't show Europe only but only Global - Now covering the start of the winter:

Yes. I'm looking at 30C again this weekend. One to watch. [/q

Where do you see that as neither the BBC or Met Office have a temp that high for my area or further east only showing 25c?

Probably still too early to be sure, but there seems to be a growing theme in the ECM and GFS of a return to more unsettled and cooler pattern from early next week onwards.

Were this to verify, it would at least be of considerable welcome relief to all those people who are struggling to get a good nights' sleep at the moment owing to the high nightime temperatures and humidity.

Probably still too early to be sure, but there seems to be a growing theme in the ECM and GFS of a return to more unsettled and cooler pattern from early next week onwards.

Were this to verify, it would at least be of considerable welcome relief to all those people who are struggling to get a good nights' sleep at the moment owing to the high nightime temperatures and humidity.

sounds like a very heaven.

my app is showing 29c in central London at 2300.

that is gross. sleeping is impossible in this heat.

Another awful ECM run. They’re really sticking to their guns here. No wetter than GFS or GEM but much colder with a strong GH. The North Americans are keener to heat things up again.

UKMO going a bit downhill too.

Good, I am sick of this weather - it's just not pleasant unless you have the time and ability to doss by the beach everyday.