BBC Week Ahead suggesting focus for storms this week will be in the W today, the N on Tuesday and the S on Wednesday - something for everyone!But still possible surprises.

GFS - the broad area of HP across the UK SW to NE persists but interrupted at times by embedded LP centres - from the S in the next few days, from the W Tue 18th (which hangs around off Ireland for several days)

GEFS - generally temps back to around norm from Sat 15th but with both cold and warm outliers, plenty of chances for rain but no consistent pattern. Scotland gets a dry spell for a few days from Sat 15th after a definite peak on the 12th

ECM - Differs from GFS in suggesting that the Atlantic depression on the 18th will instead be a trough from a centre near Iceland, and cooler weather to follow.

ECM just gets worse and worse for next week. So much for warm and generally settled weather lasting well through the middle of the month as on the Met Office forecast! It looks appalling.

It's been like that here since April but sooner or later the long dry here at least,  has to break. If I remember at the beginning of July there was much talk of biblical floods on this forum which here at least came to nought.

 

It's been like that here since April but sooner or later the long dry here at least,  has to break. If I remember at the beginning of July there was much talk of biblical floods on this forum which here at least came to nought.

Sacre bleu! Surely you're not suggesting some of the posters here are prone to exaggeration?

GFS 06z brings the low pressure close to us but just hanging around to the SW until a new Scandi high gets its act together. ICON looks similar up to 120hrs.

ECM is a much better model, but the one grain of succour I have is that a number of other models are not having its cold plunge (it's not just GFS as an outlier), and we know that UK weather once established tends to take a while to shift large scale patterns. We've only been in this current pattern of high pressure to the NE and Northward displaced jet since, at most, the last week of July.

GFS continues to look wet though.

 

 

Sacre bleu! Surely you're not suggesting some of the posters here are prone to exaggeration?

I'm sure Kev B will have the stats, but I reckon in July we had at least 20 days that saw some rainfall at some point.

Broken record, sure, but all I ask for is the sort of few-week dry & mainly sunny spell with temps into the mid-20's.

 

 

Sacre bleu! Surely you're not suggesting some of the posters here are prone to exaggeration?

There have been ridiculous comments all summer – almost as bad as the hysteria you see on the other channel at times.

Been a great summer so far down here, only problem has been the two heatwaves so far, both of which were/are unbearably hot at night. 

July was generally fine – low 20s and plenty of nice sunshine. 

 

 

I'm sure Kev B will have the stats, but I reckon in July we had at least 20 days that saw some rainfall at some point.

Broken record, sure, but all I ask for is the sort of few-week dry & mainly sunny spell with temps into the mid-20's.

My England and Wales summer index (normalised temp, rainfall and sunshine since 1970) shows the following:

April: 120.91 (third highest in series)

May: 153.22 (highest in series)

June: 124.93 (just above average)

July: 126.15 (well below average)

E&W rainfall was 130% of 1971-00 average, and sunshine was 84% of average.

So it was a pretty disappointing July, but mainly in the Midlands, North and West.

So it was a pretty disappointing July, but mainly in the Midlands, North and West.

Which is where (plus Scotland) the vast majority complaints about this summer (and July in particular) have come from. 

Yes, some areas in the south/south-east have had a prolonged good spell, but people from there making snide comments about how ridiculous others saying it's been a poor summer, when the people complaining have indeed had a poor summer, is annoying.

ICON 12z has a long, slow, warm and messy breakdown of this event.

GFS so far seems to have taken Wed maxes down a peg or two (to 34C). Fair bit of rain and cloud in the forecast which may be why.

 

 

Which is where (plus Scotland) the vast majority complaints about this summer (and July in particular) have come from. 

Yes, some areas in the south/south-east have had a prolonged good spell, but people from there making snide comments about how ridiculous others saying it's been a poor summer, when the people complaining have indeed had a poor summer, is annoying.

The same in winter when folk in the north banging on about snow and ice days when we're still waiting for our first frost.

GFS turns into a rain-fest. Real shades of 2004 in there. That started hot too.

 

The same in winter when folk in the north banging on about snow and ice days when we're still waiting for our first frost.

Indeed.

About a third of the population of the whole UK live in the South and East of England – it's fair enough that the weather here gets discussed widely. It is certainly proportionate to the population. 

GFS turns into a rain-fest. Real shades of 2004 in there. That started hot too.

It's amazing how quickly the GFS has collapsed from widespread high pressure to an ECM-style arkfest

It's amazing how quickly the GFS has collapsed from widespread high pressure to an ECM-style arkfest

Let's hope the GFS Op is overcooking the cumulative rainfall - it has gone way off the scale for the arid desert of mid-East Anglia

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=12&lat=52.2672064777&lon=0.283018867925&runpara=0&type=10&ext=1

ECM keeps the Arkfest theme but has eased off on the “wintry showers on high ground” vibe of its last two runs. Probably means it’ll be wetter though.

Will my Ark finally need to come out of retirement? 🤣🤣

To be honest, I remain to be convinced that any of the models have yet got a proper handle on what happens after the end this week and next weekend. I could well be wrong, but I have a feeling that ECM and GFS may well be overcooking that LP shown for next week. We shall see.

To be honest, I remain to be convinced that any of the models have yet got a proper handle on what happens after the end this week and next weekend. I could well be wrong, but I have a feeling that ECM and GFS may well be overcooking that LP shown for next week. We shall see.

These heatwaves often take a lot longer to shift than the models suggest, and there have been countless examples where the models have overcooked low pressure returning in an attempt to return to normality.

I think its obviously going to cool down but I'm not so sure we are about to see autumn arriving early.