Output this evening looks decent.

NW/SE split.

Situation normal.

Decent weather for most folks.

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Output this evening looks decent.

NW/SE split.

Situation normal.

Decent weather for most folks.

Must be looking at a different set of runs. Cold cold cold.

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Must be looking at a different set of runs. Cold cold cold.

Uppers are gash but with low rainfall in the south for much of the time. Probably usable but a complete waste of summer sadly

ECM looks pretty decent.. or is this just gfs model output? 

Output this evening looks decent.

NW/SE split.

Situation normal.

Decent weather for most folks.

Colder than average across the U.K. and wetter than average in the north on the GFS output. So no, not really normal which would be average across the U.K. for the time of year for both temperature and rainfall. Wetter in the NW than the SE is normal, wetter than average isn’t the expected situation. A rather important difference. 

As picturesareme says though the ECM looks a bit better.

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Must be looking at a different set of runs. Cold cold cold.

 

Looks average if not slightly above in the SE overall?

 

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Looks average if not slightly above in the SE overall?

 

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ECM looks pretty decent.. or is this just gfs model output? 

The ECM ensemble mean anomaly charts at 850hPa show average or below average temperatures for 7 out of the 10 days. I’m not sure that rather changeable and cool fits with ‘pretty decent’; certainly not in my book.

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ECM 12z ensemble temperature chart for London:

Not much warmth in offer until a week from now.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

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A little warmer - but not much, and W Europe is still below average.At least the rain eases off in week 2. 
http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

GFS - LPs continue to run across or close to N Scotland until Fri 10th before a ridge of HP sets up from the SW lasting to Sat 18th but that is then threatened by LP retrogressing from Poland.

GEFS - As yesterday, temp profile for S is up Sun 5th, down Tue 7th, up Thu 9th, down Sat 11th before rising slowly to above seasonal norm Sun 19th. Minimal rain and what there is forecast mostly later on (after 11th). Scotland temp profile similar but on a lower base, some rain at first, more in some runs around Sat 11th and Thu 16th.

ECM - similar to GFS though it allows better development of brief minor ridges of HP tbetween the coming week's train of depressions

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The long range forecasts still seem fairly confident of high pressure taking charge towards mid month with some warmer conditions in the second half of July.

GFS this morning seems to agree with this theme albeit no spectacular upper air temps.

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The long range forecasts still seem fairly confident of high pressure taking charge towards mid month with some warmer conditions in the second half of July.

GFS this morning seems to agree with this theme albeit no spectacular upper air temps.

I'd expect the Met Office to become a little more cagey about that later today but we shall see.

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GEM 00z today building a nice Ridge from 216 Hrs , hopefully this will be the trend, fingers crossed

Potential at 240....where have we heard that before ? 

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I'd expect the Met Office to become a little more cagey about that later today but we shall see.

To be honest, these days there are so many caveats in their long term forecasts  that they are totally confusing and not helpful so I don't bother taking any notice of them. The BBC long rangers provide discussions of risk and reasons for uncertainty which are far more informative and allow people to make educated decisions when making plans. 

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Some tentative signs of something a bit better later in the month. Cool, but perhaps a bit more settled and not such a NW/SE split.

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Potential at 240....where have we heard that before ? 

Usually in January

😉

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I'd expect the Met Office to become a little more cagey about that later today but we shall see.

Well you cursed that good and proper Brian ...the warm or hot spells has vanished so more of what we have now by the sound of their update 

 

To be honest, these days there are so many caveats in their long term forecasts  that they are totally confusing and not helpful so I don't bother taking any notice of them. The BBC long rangers provide discussions of risk and reasons for uncertainty which are far more informative and allow people to make educated decisions when making plans. 

Looks like they've edged towards a more mixed mid term in today's update as I expected. I'll not copy and paste here but you can read in the media thread. Having said that it doesn't look too bad in the south. 

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Cold cold cold. Can’t be doing with this. Come back spring!

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