From MO thread, showing that summers since the millennium are lagging the overall annual climate change pattern and we are overdue something better in the next decade:
Here are some stats as promised. What they show is that June has done fairly well (though less than most other months of the year except December and the other summer months), whilst July and August have generally been poor. The annual mean has warmed by much more than the summer months, and while the rest of the year has become much sunnier, July and August have actually got duller.
Junes since 2000: warmer, drier and sunnier than long term mean but by less than annual trends
- 18 out of 20 warmer than average. Mean of all years 14.5C, which is 1.0C above 1971-00 mean
- 13 out of 20 drier than average. Across all years, mean rainfall 67mm, which is a little wetter than the 1971-00 mean
- 14 out of 20 sunnier than average. mean of 194hrs vs 178 1971-00 mean
Julys since 2000: marginally warmer, but much wetter than long term mean, average sunshine
- 13 out of 20 warmer than average. Across all years 16.4C which is 0.55C above 1971-00
- 16 out of 20 were WETTER than average. Across all years 78mm vs 55mm mean
- 15 out of 20 DULLER than average, although across all years 195 hrs vs 192 hrs LTA. Big divergence between exceptionally sunny Julys in 06, 13, 14, 18 and other years, nothing much in between. 2003 was duller than average
Augusts since 2000: marginally warmer, but wetter and duller than mean
- 14 out of 20 warmer than average. Across all years 16.1 vs 15.71, 0.4C above 1971-00
- 12 out of 20 wetter than average. Across all years 81.5 vs 69.85 LTA
- 12 out of 20 duller than average. Across all years 172hrs vs 182hrs LTA
What we haven't had, 2005 (and perhaps 2019 aside) is many reasonably good but not exceptional summers. Lots of dross, and a few exceptionally hot and sunny ones.
Drill further in the data as I do in my summer index calcs, and a NW-SE split is apparent too. It's been relatively much worse compared to normal in the North and West (particularly the West) than in the S and E (particularly the far SE - Kent and E Anglia).
Th NW/SE split in rates of change is consistent with climate projections but the rest isn't. The projections all show increasing sunshine hours, rainfall staying roughly similar but becoming drier in the far South, and temperatures warming at a similar pace to other seasons. In France, Germany etc summers have warmed more rapidly than projections or indeed than other seasons.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl