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Online Gusty  
#41 Posted : 14 June 2020 10:11:51(UTC)
Gusty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 15,278
Man
Location: Folkestone

14.9c for me. It looks like we've all gone fairly close to the mean.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground...m/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

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Offline ARTzeman  
#42 Posted : 15 June 2020 10:05:35(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,151
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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley       14.1c       Anomaly        0.2c Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                    13.32c     Anomaly        -0.83c

Netweather                 13.91c     Anomaly        -0.2c

Peasedown St John     14.1c       Anomaly       -0.5c.  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Bertwhistle  
#43 Posted : 15 June 2020 11:58:05(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,805
Location: Central Southern England

HadCET 14,0 provisional to yesterday.

I just posted that on May instead. Duh!

 

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

August 2020: best heatwave since '95

Offline Caz  
#44 Posted : 15 June 2020 15:38:28(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 23,701
Woman
United Kingdom
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle Go to Quoted Post

HadCET 14,0 provisional to yesterday.

I just posted that on May instead. Duh!

What?  It’s not May?     

I don’t know what day it is most days, every one’s the same!  The only thing I have to go on these days is Wednesday, because it’s bin day!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition

Offline ARTzeman  
#45 Posted : 16 June 2020 10:05:22(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,151
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley           14.1c          Anomaly        0.3c. Provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                        13.61c        Anomaly        -0.3c

Netweather                     14.09c        Anomaly        -0.1c

Peasedown St John        14.5c         Anomaly         -0.1c.    

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Bertwhistle  
#46 Posted : 16 June 2020 10:34:44(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,805
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

What?  It’s not May?     

I don’t know what day it is most days, every one’s the same!  The only thing I have to go on these days is Wednesday, because it’s bin day!  

And every other day is like Groundhog Day.

 

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

August 2020: best heatwave since '95

Offline ARTzeman  
#47 Posted : 17 June 2020 09:54:58(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,151
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley           14.4c       Anomaly         0.5c Provisional to 16th

Metcheck                        13.76c     Anomaly         -0.39c

Netweather                     14.32c     Anomaly         0.13c

Peasedown St John        14.5c       Anomaly        -0.1c.     

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Stormchaser  
#48 Posted : 17 June 2020 13:31:49(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 12,067
Man
Location: West Hants

Hmm, that provisional is probably a few tenths too high as usual.

Regardless, some potential for June to finish appreciably warmer than average despite a shortage of hot weather so far, depending on whether the GFS 06z or a few other 'lesser' models have the right idea with some widespread very warm to hot conditions for at least a few days next week.

ECM and its ensembles aren't keen on more than a SE England affair.

 

For what it's worth, the GFS 06z takes a rough CET estimate from 14.8°C as of 21st to 15.8°C as of 28th, where it stays to month's end. That's nearly 1.5°C above the long-term average - likely an extreme example of what may occur (four days in a row of 30-31°C shown for London, which would in reality be 2-3°C higher based on past experience!).

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2021's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline ARTzeman  
#49 Posted : 18 June 2020 10:26:01(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,151
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         14.5c       Anomaly        0.6c. Provisional to 17th

Metcheck                      13.86c     Anomaly        -0.29c

Netweather                   14.35c     Anomaly        0.26c

Peasedown St John     14.7c       Anomaly        0.1c.    

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline ARTzeman  
#50 Posted : 19 June 2020 09:50:47(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,151
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley             14.5c        Anomaly      0.6c Provisional to 18th

Metcheck                          13.85c      Anomaly      -0.29c

Netweather                       14.36c      Anomaly      0.27c

Peasedown St John         14.64c      Anomaly       0.04c  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline ARTzeman  
#51 Posted : 20 June 2020 10:32:49(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,151
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley           14.5c         Anomaly      0.6c   Provisional to 19th

Metcheck                        13.84c       Anomaly      -0.30c

Netweather                     14.38c       Anomaly      0.29c

Peasedown St John       14.55c       Anomaly       -0.05c.  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Global Warming  
#52 Posted : 20 June 2020 10:49:15(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

We need a June CET of 15C or more for the first half of 2020 to be the second warmest first six months of the year on record. To be the warmest first half of the year on record we would need a CET of 16C or more which is most unlikely at this point.

Warmest first halves of the year in the CET series

2007  9.70C
2014  9.52C
1846  9.52C
1822  9.48C
2017  9.47C

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

Offline Global Warming  
#53 Posted : 20 June 2020 10:54:35(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Sorry very late but here are the June predictions

Table

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

Offline Col  
#54 Posted : 20 June 2020 12:02:40(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 1,632
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Sorry very late but here are the June predictions

Table

I don't think I've ever been at such an extreme end of the prediction range before, not that there's much of a range of predictions this month anyway. I may be bang on correct at this moment but next week's warm/hot spell will scupper any chance of me doing well this month.

Glad to see Moomin pitching in and putting his money where his mouth is :)

 

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Offline Whether Idle  
#55 Posted : 21 June 2020 08:52:03(UTC)
Whether Idle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC)
Posts: 9,188
Man
Location: Dover

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Sorry very late but here are the June predictions

Table

Thanks GW

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Offline Global Warming  
#56 Posted : 21 June 2020 09:03:27(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

A very warm final third of June to come. I haven't been doing my tracker this month as too busy.

However, based on the current CET being around 14.5C the forecast temperatures for the final 10 days of June suggest the CET will rise by around 1.3-1.4C compared to where is now. So a finishing CET between 15.5C and 16.0C looks likely.  Best guess at the moment would be 15.6C to 15.7C. So not quite as warm as June 2017 and June 2018 which both reached 16C. But not far off.

Hence the winner this month is likely to come from one of the top 4 in the prediction table. 

It also means we will likely get close to the record CET for the first six months of the year. Probably finishing just behind 2007.

Peak of the CET daily figures this week likely to be on Thursday. Very warm nights and days. My current estimate for Thursday is a CET of 21.75C. Current record for 25 June is 21.6C.

Absolute maximum temperature date records look unlikely this week but not impossible. From 23-28 June the date records are all held by 1976. Running from 32.2C on the 23rd to 35.6C on the 28th. Best chance of a record is on Thursday where the record is 33.5C. Current BBC forecast going for 32C on that day in London. So I think we probably fall a bit short.

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

Offline Bertwhistle  
#57 Posted : 21 June 2020 09:58:28(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,805
Location: Central Southern England

Think CET rounds to 14.6°C now- the estimated daily values are in but the mean to 20th not in their table yet.

A mean CET for the last 10 days of 18° would give us a final of about 15.7 but then there are those downjustments.

Edited by user 21 June 2020 10:01:20(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

August 2020: best heatwave since '95

Offline ARTzeman  
#58 Posted : 21 June 2020 10:02:45(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,151
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         14.6c        Anomaly        0.6c  Provisional to 20th

Metcheck                      13.97c      Anomaly        -0.18c

Netweather                   14.48c      Anomaly        0.39cc

Peasedown St John      14.71c      Anomaly        0.11c.  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Online moomin75  
#59 Posted : 21 June 2020 12:29:18(UTC)
moomin75

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,063

Originally Posted by: Col Go to Quoted Post

 

I don't think I've ever been at such an extreme end of the prediction range before, not that there's much of a range of predictions this month anyway. I may be bang on correct at this moment but next week's warm/hot spell will scupper any chance of me doing well this month.

Glad to see Moomin pitching in and putting his money where his mouth is :)

 

And being totally wrong - at least temperature wise. Still happy with my call for a wetter than average month because in many places it has been.

I concede though that I am way out on my CET guess.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Offline Caz  
#60 Posted : 21 June 2020 18:07:49(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 23,701
Woman
United Kingdom
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

A very warm final third of June to come. I haven't been doing my tracker this month as too busy.

However, based on the current CET being around 14.5C the forecast temperatures for the final 10 days of June suggest the CET will rise by around 1.3-1.4C compared to where is now. So a finishing CET between 15.5C and 16.0C looks likely.  Best guess at the moment would be 15.6C to 15.7C. So not quite as warm as June 2017 and June 2018 which both reached 16C. But not far off.

Hence the winner this month is likely to come from one of the top 4 in the prediction table. 

It also means we will likely get close to the record CET for the first six months of the year. Probably finishing just behind 2007.

Peak of the CET daily figures this week likely to be on Thursday. Very warm nights and days. My current estimate for Thursday is a CET of 21.75C. Current record for 25 June is 21.6C.

Absolute maximum temperature date records look unlikely this week but not impossible. From 23-28 June the date records are all held by 1976. Running from 32.2C on the 23rd to 35.6C on the 28th. Best chance of a record is on Thursday where the record is 33.5C. Current BBC forecast going for 32C on that day in London. So I think we probably fall a bit short.

Thanks GW!  Some records up for grabs this month then!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition

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