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Offline Global Warming  
#1 Posted : 31 May 2020 10:05:07(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,421
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

This thread is for all comments, discussion and analysis of temperatures in the UK during June, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own back yard. 

For those taking part in the competition all CET predictions for June should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Do not post them directly into the thread. 

So far 2020 has been one of the warmest years on record. Will this continue into the summer?

Historic CET summary for June

1971-2000 8.1C (30 years) 14.1C

1981-2010 8.5C (30 years) 14.5C

2000-2019 9.0C (last 20 years) 14.9C

June CET record 18.2C 1846 

Here is a chart of the June CET for all years since 1961:

Direct link to larger version of the chart

Current model output 

Turning cold for a time next weekend before temperatures bounce back again

GFS 850's -https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=

ECM ENS T2m http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png

Met Office contingency planners outlook 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-jja-v1.pdf

Warmer conditions favoured from a probability perspective

Edited by moderator 31 July 2020 12:52:36(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl

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Offline ARTzeman  
#2 Posted : 31 May 2020 10:17:22(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,532
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Thank you, GW.  Prediction sent.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline SJV  
#3 Posted : 31 May 2020 10:53:24(UTC)
SJV

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Joined: 22/11/2015(UTC)
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Man
Location: Sheffield, 133m ASL

Yes thank you GW. A fairly conservative prediction sent 😁
Follow/like Steel City Skies - Sheffield Weather Forecasting on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.
Offline Spring Sun Winter Dread  
#4 Posted : 01 June 2020 20:14:00(UTC)
Spring Sun Winter Dread

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Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 101
United Kingdom
Location: Berkhamsted, Herts

That's astonishing how that CET average has shot up in the last 20 years.

I'm 36 and fairly confident that I will live to see both the May and June all time CET records smashed, even though we haven't come anywhere close to either in the last 100 years. With long term warming trends like that it seems inevitable !

Offline Whether Idle  
#5 Posted : 01 June 2020 20:16:48(UTC)
Whether Idle

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Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC)
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Man
Location: Dover

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread Go to Quoted Post
That's astonishing how that CET average has shot up in the last 20 years.
I'm 36 and fairly confident that I will live to see both the May and June all time CET records smashed, even though we haven't come anywhere close to either in the last 100 years. With long term warming trends like that it seems inevitable !

Be careful there old son, you might get in trouble for mentioning a large albino betrunked mammal native to Asia and Africa that entered the building about 30 years ago.

The Johnson Government had a choice on whether to tackle the virus hard- or let it spread- they've shown they care more for their money than they do for the health and the safety of the British People.
Offline Caz  
#6 Posted : 02 June 2020 04:28:05(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 20,642
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

  Eeek!  I almost missed this!  Lockdown must be affecting my internal calendar!  I only had one thing on my mind yesterday and that was having a barbecue with our son and his partner!  

Guess sent!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline ARTzeman  
#7 Posted : 02 June 2020 11:23:09(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,532
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley           16.5c        Anomaly         3.4c. Provisional to 1st.

Metcheck                        15.36c      Anomaly         1.21c

Netweather                     17.82c      Anomaly         3.73c

Peasedown St John        16.5c        Anomaly          2.1c.  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Caz  
#8 Posted : 03 June 2020 18:02:34(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 20,642
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Where’s Art today?  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline ARTzeman  
#9 Posted : 03 June 2020 22:03:14(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,532
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

Where’s Art today?  

No update from Hadley.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Caz  
#10 Posted : 04 June 2020 02:54:02(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 20,642
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

No update from Hadley.

  OK thanks Art.  Your absence just got me a bit worried.  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline ARTzeman  
#11 Posted : 04 June 2020 09:58:38(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,532
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

MET OFFICE HADLEY           15.7c           Anomaly          2.4c  Provisional to 3rd.

Metcheck                             14.92c        Anomaly           0.77c

Netweather                          16.38c        Anomaly           2.29c

Peasedown St John            15.2c          Anomaly           0.6c. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline ARTzeman  
#12 Posted : 05 June 2020 10:03:51(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,532
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley            14.7c           Anomaly           1.4c Provisional to 4th.

Metcheck                         14.01c         Anomaly           -0.14c

Netweather                      15.2c           Anomaly           1.03c

Peasedown St John        15.4c           Anomaly           0.8c.        

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Stormchaser  
#13 Posted : 05 June 2020 11:34:59(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,931
Man
Location: West Hants

So, June's out of the starting blocks on a positive (mean temperature) note but now we're into a considerably cool spell that looks to continue through Sat, then ease a bit but mainly by day, with nights taking a little while to recover.

GFS 00z & 06z runs both drag the CET downward to a low of ~12.5°C on 10th, over 1°C below average for that point in the month.

Then comes a warm-up sufficient to neutralise the CET anomaly by the midpoint of June, at ~14°C. 

Both runs go on to feature near to slightly above average temperatures overall, with the CET ~14.3°C as of 20th.

 

Meanwhile, the ECM 00z is a LOT warmer for Thu-Fri (maximums low to mid-20s) and a fair bit warmer for Sat-Sun (mid-high 20s).


Considering the overall negative bias of GFS with temps (e.g. the 06z of 1st June had the CET at only 13.8°C to 4th), there's plenty of reason to anticipate a warmer than average CET by mid-month.

Considering an upsurge in AAM is expected by mid-month and which has been for some time (bar a wobble away for a few days prior to yesterday), which corresponds to a warm to very warm weather pattern for the UK, I'm already starting to suspect I should have gone at least half a degree higher with my CET estimate (14.98°C)! Somehow, I keep thinking chilly spells are going to hit harder than they do .

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline ARTzeman  
#14 Posted : 06 June 2020 10:12:43(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,532
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley           14.1c        Anomaly        0.8c Provisional to 5th.

Metcheck                        13.20c      Anomaly        -0.95c

Netweather                     14.43c      Anomaly        0.34c

Peasedown St John        14.1c       Anomaly        -0.5c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline ARTzeman  
#15 Posted : 07 June 2020 12:02:08(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,532
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley          13.6c          Anomaly        0.2c. Provisional to 6th

Metcheck                       12.89c        Anomaly        -1.26c

Netweather                    13.81c        Anomaly        -0.29c

Peasedown St John       13.54c        Anomaly        -1.06c.    

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline moomin75  
#16 Posted : 07 June 2020 15:03:18(UTC)
moomin75

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 5,351

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Met Office Hadley          13.6c          Anomaly        0.2c. Provisional to 6th

Metcheck                       12.89c        Anomaly        -1.26c

Netweather                    13.81c        Anomaly        -0.29c

Peasedown St John       13.54c        Anomaly        -1.06c.    

Will be below average by tomorrow then.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Offline ARTzeman  
#17 Posted : 08 June 2020 10:13:58(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,532
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley            13.4c          Anomaly          -0.0c  Provisional to 7th.

Metcheck                         12.39c        Anomaly          -1.56c

Netweather                      13.53c        Anomaly          -0.57c

Peasedown St John         13.7c          Anomaly          -0.9c.   

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Stormchaser  
#18 Posted : 08 June 2020 19:36:06(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,931
Man
Location: West Hants

Increasing confidence that the CET will bottom out 10th-11th just below 13.0°C, before starting to climb considerably as warm conditions spread in from the southeast or east. Some days look very warm in places, while the nights become notably mild.

GFS 12z numbers take the CET estimate all the way up to 15.0°C as of 24th, but this is fraught with the usual increasingly massive caveats.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Saint Snow  
#19 Posted : 08 June 2020 20:09:26(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 47,360
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

Increasing confidence that the CET will bottom out 10th-11th just below 13.0°C, before starting to climb considerably as warm conditions spread in from the southeast or east. Some days look very warm in places, while the nights become notably mild.

GFS 12z numbers take the CET estimate all the way up to 15.0°C as of 24th, but this is fraught with the usual increasingly massive caveats.

 

Be interesting to see what everyone's gone for this month..

 

 

[hint, hint, GW 😁]

"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline ARTzeman  
#20 Posted : 09 June 2020 10:17:18(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,532
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley          13.3c        Anomaly        -0.2c Provisional to 8th

Metcheck                       12.45c      Anomaly        -1.70c

Netweather                    13.34c      Anomaly        -0.77c

Peaasedown St John      13.82c      Anomaly         -0.78c.    

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

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