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June UK Temperature analysis and discussion
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC) Posts: 6,714  Location: Chineham, Basingstoke
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 29,986  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Thank you, GW. Prediction sent. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 22/11/2015(UTC) Posts: 19,325  Location: Sheffield, 133m ASL
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Yes thank you GW. A fairly conservative prediction sent 😁 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC) Posts: 220   Location: Aylesbury, Bucks
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That's astonishing how that CET average has shot up in the last 20 years. I'm 36 and fairly confident that I will live to see both the May and June all time CET records smashed, even though we haven't come anywhere close to either in the last 100 years. With long term warming trends like that it seems inevitable !
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC) Posts: 9,187  Location: Dover
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Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread  That's astonishing how that CET average has shot up in the last 20 years. I'm 36 and fairly confident that I will live to see both the May and June all time CET records smashed, even though we haven't come anywhere close to either in the last 100 years. With long term warming trends like that it seems inevitable ! Be careful there old son, you might get in trouble for mentioning a large albino betrunked mammal native to Asia and Africa that entered the building about 30 years ago. |
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 23,643   Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Eeek! I almost missed this! Lockdown must be affecting my internal calendar! I only had one thing on my mind yesterday and that was having a barbecue with our son and his partner! 
Guess sent!  |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 29,986  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 16.5c Anomaly 3.4c. Provisional to 1st. Metcheck 15.36c Anomaly 1.21c Netweather 17.82c Anomaly 3.73c Peasedown St John 16.5c Anomaly 2.1c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 23,643   Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Where’s Art today?  |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 29,986  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Originally Posted by: Caz  Where’s Art today?  No update from Hadley. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 23,643   Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Originally Posted by: ARTzeman   OK thanks Art. Your absence just got me a bit worried.  |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 29,986  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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MET OFFICE HADLEY 15.7c Anomaly 2.4c Provisional to 3rd. Metcheck 14.92c Anomaly 0.77c Netweather 16.38c Anomaly 2.29c Peasedown St John 15.2c Anomaly 0.6c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 29,986  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 14.7c Anomaly 1.4c Provisional to 4th. Metcheck 14.01c Anomaly -0.14c Netweather 15.2c Anomaly 1.03c Peasedown St John 15.4c Anomaly 0.8c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 12,066  Location: West Hants
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So, June's out of the starting blocks on a positive (mean temperature) note but now we're into a considerably cool spell that looks to continue through Sat, then ease a bit but mainly by day, with nights taking a little while to recover. GFS 00z & 06z runs both drag the CET downward to a low of ~12.5°C on 10th, over 1°C below average for that point in the month. Then comes a warm-up sufficient to neutralise the CET anomaly by the midpoint of June, at ~14°C. Both runs go on to feature near to slightly above average temperatures overall, with the CET ~14.3°C as of 20th. Meanwhile, the ECM 00z is a LOT warmer for Thu-Fri (maximums low to mid-20s) and a fair bit warmer for Sat-Sun (mid-high 20s). Considering the overall negative bias of GFS with temps (e.g. the 06z of 1st June had the CET at only 13.8°C to 4th), there's plenty of reason to anticipate a warmer than average CET by mid-month.
Considering an upsurge in AAM is expected by mid-month and which has been for some time (bar a wobble away for a few days prior to yesterday), which corresponds to a warm to very warm weather pattern for the UK, I'm already starting to suspect I should have gone at least half a degree higher with my CET estimate (14.98°C)! Somehow, I keep thinking chilly spells are going to hit harder than they do . SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES |
If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2021's Homeland Extremes: T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb) Keep Calm and Forecast On |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 29,986  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 14.1c Anomaly 0.8c Provisional to 5th. Metcheck 13.20c Anomaly -0.95c Netweather 14.43c Anomaly 0.34c Peasedown St John 14.1c Anomaly -0.5c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 29,986  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 13.6c Anomaly 0.2c. Provisional to 6th Metcheck 12.89c Anomaly -1.26c Netweather 13.81c Anomaly -0.29c Peasedown St John 13.54c Anomaly -1.06c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 24/05/2006(UTC) Posts: 5,960
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Originally Posted by: ARTzeman  Met Office Hadley 13.6c Anomaly 0.2c. Provisional to 6th Metcheck 12.89c Anomaly -1.26c Netweather 13.81c Anomaly -0.29c Peasedown St John 13.54c Anomaly -1.06c. Will be below average by tomorrow then. |
Witney, Oxfordshire 100m ASL |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 29,986  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 13.4c Anomaly -0.0c Provisional to 7th. Metcheck 12.39c Anomaly -1.56c Netweather 13.53c Anomaly -0.57c Peasedown St John 13.7c Anomaly -0.9c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 12,066  Location: West Hants
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Increasing confidence that the CET will bottom out 10th-11th just below 13.0°C, before starting to climb considerably as warm conditions spread in from the southeast or east. Some days look very warm in places, while the nights become notably mild. GFS 12z numbers take the CET estimate all the way up to 15.0°C as of 24th, but this is fraught with the usual increasingly massive caveats. |
If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2021's Homeland Extremes: T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb) Keep Calm and Forecast On |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 54,381  Location: St Helens
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Originally Posted by: Stormchaser  Increasing confidence that the CET will bottom out 10th-11th just below 13.0°C, before starting to climb considerably as warm conditions spread in from the southeast or east. Some days look very warm in places, while the nights become notably mild. GFS 12z numbers take the CET estimate all the way up to 15.0°C as of 24th, but this is fraught with the usual increasingly massive caveats. Be interesting to see what everyone's gone for this month.. [hint, hint, GW 😁] |
Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 29,986  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 13.3c Anomaly -0.2c Provisional to 8th Metcheck 12.45c Anomaly -1.70c Netweather 13.34c Anomaly -0.77c Peaasedown St John 13.82c Anomaly -0.78c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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