6th named storm, 12 days earlier than the previous record (2005).

All weak, mostly 'marginal' systems, though. Technically legit, but kind of feels like a 'waste' of names... this being where 2005 was a very different story, Dennis being a category 4 hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Emily an extraordinary category 5 storm in the Caribbean having originated as a tropical wave in the main development region - extremely unusual for July!

A couple of disturbances have appeared on the NHC chart after a quiet week; one near Cuba looks like dyong away, one in south central Atlantic might develop but chances quite low.

That mid-Atlantic disturbance referred to above is now TD7 and forecast to become storm Gonzalo on a southerly track through the Caribbean.

The other disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is also livelier but still below a forecast of 50%cyclone formation

Seven/Gonzalo. Its been a while since Jamaica was hit by a big storm. This could go anywhere at this stage

https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1285947268202364928

Interesting to see where historical storms in Gonzalo's position have tended to go. Suggests a high likelihood that it visits the Gulf of Mexico, be that purely via the Caribbean or there and either the Bahamas or the northernmost reaches of Central America.

Intensity, who knows? Looks to strengthen for at least a couple of days, but then potentially take a big hit from stronger wind shear and a somewhat stable environment in the eastern Caribbean. It will likely be a big deal whether enough of a structure survives that (and any land interaction(s) to re-intensify further to the west.

In the meantime, the disturbance already in the Gulf of Mexico has shown some signs of organisation, with a weak circulation evident. Could be a busy 7-10 days for that sea.

 

In the meantime, the disturbance already in the Gulf of Mexico has shown some signs of organisation, with a weak circulation evident. Could be a busy 7-10 days for that sea.

Now officially TD 8 with likelihood to become storm Hanna and deposit lots of rain on Texas 

 

Now officially TD 8 with likelihood to become storm Hanna and deposit lots of rain on Texas 

Now perking up a bit:

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1286225999454248965

Meanwhile, Gonzalo is in a classic battle with dry air infringement:

https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1286233851904372736 

Most tropical cyclone-specific models predict a hurricane moving into the Caribbean in the next few days, but the global models keep Gonzalo weak or even dissipate it. This raises a classic question: accuracy of broader atmosphere versus model resolution.

https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1286235500613967881

Global models may have a better handle on how stable the atmosphere is around Gonzalo, but their lower resolution could be preventing them from sufficiently resolving the distinction between the TC's moist core of convection and the drier air around it.

 

Now officially TD 8 with likelihood to become storm Hanna and deposit lots of rain on Texas 

Has now been confirmed Hanna.

Gonzalo proceeding as forecast

One to watch in the long term just moving out from Africa

Douglas taking aim at Hawaii as well, though expected to weaken before reaching

Hanna to spend a few hours with hurricane status just before landfall in S Texas

Hanna much stronger than expected, but Gonzalo has been ripped apart is now dying a death

Douglas to hit northern Hawaii as a strong system. Been a long time since a hurricane has made landfall here

3:54 pm. In the eyewall of #Hurricane #HANNA in Port Mansfield #Texas. pic.twitter.com/qoIfAxAMcF

— Josh Morgerman (@iCyclone) July 25, 2020

Keep an eye on the mid-Atlantic wave - it's been given a 90% chance of full development in the next five days.

Douglas makes landfall in Hawaii but only as a Cat 1

OT, but those who have National Geographic Channel should watch the series "Gathering Storm" 

It covers recent Atlantic Hurricanes such as Irma and Maria

Looks like a new storm is developing near the Caribbean now

Still known as 92L

Not sure what it will be called

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/92L.html

Now TD9 and likely to become storm Isaias, forecast to run along the N coasts of Haiti and Cuba without attaining hurricane strength, arriving in Florida on Sunday

EDIT That's the NHC forecast. Yale Centre for Climate Change thinks development to a hurricane is likely

Still hasnt developed properly. Isais looking like another flop

Still hasnt developed properly. Isais looking like another flop

I expect the E Coast of US residents are duly grateful that it hasn't. Latest track forecast a little further east so as to run up the coast just offshore early next week - might be a significant influence on our weather in a week or so

Isaias has intensified, so no flop, now a proper hurricane andset to rattle through the N Caribbean and then along the US East Coast at that strength.

Meanwhile the season has woken up properly with two disturbances moving across the traditional route from Africa and one (nearest Africa) given good prospects of developing further. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc

Pacific relatively quiet