Its clearly not tropical anymore. I'm at a loss as to why it still has its Hurricane Status.

Its a really really strong extratropical cyclone.

I suppose they may feel dubious about calling a Cat2 storm extratropical. I admit its very rare for a storm that strong to be ET but it isn't unheard of.

 

Its probably undergoing extratropical transition, which in the case of storms here in Western Australia has sometimes caused it to strengthen even though it’s no longer a warm core storm. 

Had another look at Teddy.

Not remotely tropical looking.

Although clearly an absolute beast of a storm.

 

Very well defined fronts, cold core structure, extreme wind shear.

Why is this still being called a Hurricane?

 

 

Urgh, the strongest winds are even asociated with a sting jet.

there is still an eye visible on the satellite.

 

there is still an eye visible on the satellite.

I can't see any eye on the satellite.

All the high clouds are asociated with an occluded front. There isn't even a convincing warm seclusion (still a non tropical feature).

 

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Its probably undergoing extratropical transition, which in the case of storms here in Western Australia has sometimes caused it to strengthen even though it’s no longer a warm core storm. 

The ET transition looked to be completely done by this morning.

And sure it may well strengthen, but as a purely baroclinic system not as a tropical cyclone.

 

Its not even a Sandy type situation where you arguably had a cold core ontop of a warm seclusion ontop of a warm core (very wierd) so you could still have both a sting jet and a tropical cyclone at the same time. Though that case looked to be completely unique and this is not happening here. It is 100% ET.

Perhaps NHC doesn't want to classify it as post tropical because of how dangerous the storm clearly still is.

 

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Although Teddy's proper status may be more impressive than a faux tropical one.

Mediocre non-major hurricane vs

One of the strongest N Atlantic extratropical storms ever

 

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I can't see any eye on the satellite.

All the high clouds are asociated with an occluded front. There isn't even a convincing warm seclusion (still a non tropical feature).

 

You can

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=eus&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

 

 

You can

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=eus&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

 

I wouldn't call that an eye. Low level cloud swirl and occluded front.

Features like that are not uncommon in atlantic depressions, particularly strong ones.

 

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I wouldn't call that an eye. Low level cloud swirl and occluded front.

Features like that are not uncommon in atlantic depressions, particularly strong ones.

 

there was high level cloud on the infrared visible before day light 

 

there was high level cloud on the infrared visible before day light 

Yeh I think that's when the ET completed.

so at 5:30am it looked like this.

The main band to the NW is the developing occluded front, the thing in the centre is what's left of the actual TC. At this point it was still tropical (though had begun its ET)

By 730am:

You can still just about see what's left of the TC CDO, although now it has become detached from the low level LP centre. what is left of the eye and eyewall resides in that thin elongated structure to the NE. The occluded front intensifies to the NW.

By 930:

The last spurt of convection NE of centre dies away and the ET is basically complete.

 

 

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Yeh I think that's when the ET completed.

so at 5:30am it looked like this.

The main band to the NW is the developing occluded front, the thing in the centre is what's left of the actual TC. At this point it was still tropical (though had begun its ET)

By 730am:

You can still just about see what's left of the TC CDO, although now it has become detached from the low level LP centre. what is left of the eye and eyewall resides in that thin elongated structure to the NE. The occluded front intensifies to the NW.

By 930:

The last spurt of convection NE of centre dies away and the ET is basically complete.

 

 

still clearly a hurricane on the daylight satellite, but i suspect you've probably realised that now 😁

 

as you can see still a hurricane 

 

as you can see still a hurricane 

I don't if I'm honest. With the exception of the NW (occluded front) the entire swirl is just low level cloud being advected around the LP. Again this is ubiqituous in occluded atlantic extratropical cyclones. That's why you have to use IR to see where the convection is. And there isn't any. All the high cloud is asociated with the frontal system. The last of the eyewall convection decoupled from the LP centre early this morning.

 

 

 

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All three Atlantic storms have now gone post-tropical - though it may not feel like that if you ive in Nova Scotia where Teddy is still packing hurricane-strength winds albeit that it has now mingled with the North Atlantic circulation and has become more of a conventional depression.

Expect a quiet period for the next 5 days or so

A strong convectively suppressed Kelvin wave will be passing the tropical Atlantic this week. This tropical wave will bring in a less conducive environment for developing tropical cyclones over the Atlantic basin. A much needed breath of fresh air after a very active September.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1307670701655175169 

 

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Could have a new storm come the end of the week.

"800 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea in a few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent."

These percentages now raised to 10% and 60%. Meanwhile TS Marie in the Eastern Pacific expected to become major hurricane but well away from land.

Explanation of why late season hurricanes tend to develop in the Caribbean here

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/09/at-least-three-named-atlantic-storms-likely-in-october/ 

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Waking up again - TS Gamma circling the Yucatan peninsula but not rxpected to develop further; two disturbances in central Atlantic to watch

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Still no cat5 yet.

For such an active season its odd that we haven't had any powerful storms.

 

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Also bizarelly this Hurricane season demonstrates, like no other, the difference between weather and climate.

Climate change makes this kind of season (lots of weaker storms) much less likely while it makes the very strongest storms more likely. Goes to show even in a warming world you can still get statistical anomolies.

 

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These percentages now raised to 10% and 60%. Meanwhile TS Marie in the Eastern Pacific expected to become major hurricane but well away from land.

Explanation of why late season hurricanes tend to develop in the Caribbean here

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/09/at-least-three-named-atlantic-storms-likely-in-october/ 

We should also keep in mind that periphery storms (like SS Alpha) become more likely in late season too.

 

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Also bizarelly this Hurricane season demonstrates, like no other, the difference between weather and climate.

Climate change makes this kind of season (lots of weaker storms) much less likely while it makes the very strongest storms more likely. Goes to show even in a warming world you can still get statistical anomolies.

 

Why?

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