DEW
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21 May 2020 11:32:22

The season has kiked off with a particularly violent cyclone, Amphan, in the Bay of Bengal, coming ashore to devastate the major city of Kolkata/Calcutta; 115 mph winds and 10-16 feet storm surge.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-52749935


Map of track at  nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/19/world/asia/amphan-cyclone-map.html


 


For the Atlantic, the season officially starts on June 1st, but TS Arthur 16-19 May near the Bahamas seems to have slipped past unnoticed already. This is the sixth consecutive season which has started 'early'.


Next storm name up will be Bertha - the same list as for 2014, no names having been retired from that year.


The UK Met Office released their forecast on May 20, predicting slightly above average activity with 13 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes expected to develop between June and November 2020.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Atlantic_hurricane_season


 


 


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Chichester 12m asl
DEW
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24 May 2020 07:13:03

Remains of tropical cyclone Mangga interacting with cold front to give W. Australia a "once-in-a-decade" storm


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-52787152


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westv
24 May 2020 07:30:08
What about typhoons?
At least it will be mild!
DEW
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24 May 2020 10:04:09

Originally Posted by: westv 

What about typhoons?


Pacific typhoons will no doubt appear in due course, all welcome in this thread, but so far only an Atlantic TS (which didn't make it to hurricane status) and cyclones in the Indian Ocean. It's a great pity that the same phenomenon should have three different names according to its location.


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Gandalf The White
24 May 2020 11:32:40

A once in a decade storm resulting from an-tropical system interacting with an active cold front


 


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6uKP8mPwU1U


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Essan
24 May 2020 11:38:09
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-24/thousands-of-wa-homes-without-power-as-wa-ex-cyclone-mangga-hits/12281046 
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Gandalf The White
25 May 2020 19:58:36

As predicted, quite a lot of disruption across a very wide area - over 600 miles: equivalent to a storm here causing damage from northern Scotland all the way to the English Channel.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-52787152


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


DEW
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26 May 2020 06:37:30

Other posts re the storm in Australia  have been moved here to prevent duplication, and the specific thread locked.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Gandalf The White
26 May 2020 08:11:49

Originally Posted by: DEW 


Other posts re the storm in Australia  have been moved here to prevent duplication, and the specific thread locked.



Thanks. I did think about putting the WA storm here but it didn’t really seem to fit the thread title.


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


DEW
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26 May 2020 08:54:30

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 


Thanks. I did think about putting the WA storm here but it didn’t really seem to fit the thread title.


 



Point taken - but in the report I read it was at least half a cyclone, rather like hurricanes from across the Atlantic get rejuvenated when then come up against the N Atlantic jetstream


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
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04 June 2020 21:09:43

27th May  - TS Bertha formed incredibly fast - in just a few hours from the first observation of a disturbance - and decayed almost as fast after landfall in S Carolina. Only the sixth* time in 170 years that two TSs have formed before the start of June. 


* or fifth if you discount 2016 when storm Alex could be counted as a leftover from 2015; it formed in January


https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/that-was-fast-tropical-storm-bertha-develops-and-makes-landfall-over-south-carolina


 


4th June - TS Cristobal has dumped up to 25" of rain on parts of Central America. Despite being weakened by passage over Guatemala, it's still expected to reach New Orleans as a TS on Sunday


https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/now-a-depression-cristobal-still-expected-to-reach-us-gulf-coast-as-tropical-storm


 


The forecasters at Colorado State University have boosted their projections for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2020 from their initial outlook issued in April. The latest outlook, released Thursday, is calling for 19 named storms (including the three already named), 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes


 


3rd Jun - In the Indian Ocean, cyclone Nisarga made a rare landfall on the E Coast of India near Mumbai


https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/rare-cyclone-landfall-near-mumbai-covid-a-concern-in-wake-of-nisarga-and-amphan


 


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Chichester 12m asl
The Beast from the East
05 June 2020 08:53:48

Worrying that we are already seeing so much activity. America is facing the perfect storm this Summer - Covid chaos, race riots, a President who wants to cling to power and potentially devastating weather


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DEW
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07 June 2020 06:15:37

Cristobal expected to make landfall today, still as a tropical storm, with storm surges up to 5' around the Mississippi delta. Then it gets caught up in continental circulation and is expected to move north rapidly, too rapidly to give prolonged rainfall but remaining an identifiable feature all the way up into Canada. Up to 10" rain on the coast, progressively less (4-6") inland.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
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26 June 2020 06:43:07

The dust is accompanied by a large amount of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer, putting a damper on any hurricanes that attempt to form. None of the reliable computer models are predicting Atlantic tropical cyclone formation for the remainder of June, largely because of the dry air that is accompanying the dust


https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/06/saharan-dust-storm-expected-to-cause-dangerous-air-pollution-in-u-s-this-week/


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
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04 July 2020 19:01:27

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?start#contents


Beast has already put this TD5. in the Model Output but i thought it should also be here for continuity It's likely to become storm Dolly by tomorrow, Sunday, as it passes over Bermuda. 


EDIT  - But see below - for Dolly read Edouard. My excuse for missing Dolly is that she lasted less than 24 hours and most unexpectedly formed and died off Newfoundland


Latest (Sun 1000 BST) NHC shows still as TD 5 but forecast to become storm Edouardin the next 12 hours. It continues NE-wards briskly and goes extra-tropical late tomorrow, Mon 6th.


Small disturbance off Gulf coast near New Orleans not expected to develop much there but to cross over the Carolinas as a disorganised area of LP before rejuvenating when it interacts with the Gulf Stream


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
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06 July 2020 09:34:19

Edouard now named (see above for demise of Dolly) and making progress NE-ward but due to go extra-tropical any time now. Not making much impact on GFS synoptics, though may be contributing warmth and moisture to liven up the LP due here on Thu 9th.


Another disturbance down near the Windward Islands, not expected to amount to much, but the Atlantic hurricane season is waking up


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc (1030 6/7/20, may have refreshed by the time you look at it)


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Stormchaser
06 July 2020 13:28:13

Uncertainties surrounding Edouard and the path taken by its remnants are responsible for a spread of outcomes for Wed-Thu that bring a mass of rain to anywhere between southern England and central Scotland.



Edouard is the earliest E-name i.e. 5th named storm on record, beating 2005 by a few days. Good job it's nothing like 2005's Emily, a category 5 (earliest on record!) beast that wrecked havoc from the Caribbean to Mexico. 


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Emily_(2005)


That must have been so extraordinary to track - very out of character for a July Atlantic basin tropical cyclone! More like a classic high-end 'Cape Verde storm' of the sort usually seen 2nd half August through to 1st half October.


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DEW
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07 July 2020 06:50:08

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


Edouard is the earliest E-name i.e. 5th named storm on record, beating 2005 by a few days. Good job it's nothing like 2005's Emily, a category 5 (earliest on record!) beast that wrecked havoc from the Caribbean to Mexico. 



Unlike 2005, this year's storms have not originated n the tropics where storm development is currently inhibited by dry Saharan air. So it's a different set-up this year, but there is nevertheless still more than average heat energy around as discussed here


https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/07/tropical-storm-edouard-is-fifth-named-storm-of-2020/


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Chichester 12m asl
DEW
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09 July 2020 06:27:48

Will she, won't she? She needs to get out more and interact with the Gulf Stream to be recognised as Fay. But the NHC give an 805 chance of this happening, after which the forecast is for a track skirting the E seaboard of the US


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc


https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/07/low-pressure-system-likely-to-become-tropical-depression-or-tropical-storm-this-week/


 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
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10 July 2020 06:40:28

Fay has finally made it to TS status. Currently just offshore of Delaware, she is forecast to make landfall in NewJersey and then run northwards into New England along the New York/Vermont boundary, weakening as she goes, typically dumoing 3-5" of rain


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
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