Surely it is good news if the vulnerable are shielded and more of those who don't suffer very bad symptoms are more likely to be infected and build up some immunity?

 

Is it your view that the vulnerable should be 'shielded' (which means having their lives significantly restricted) until 'some immunity' has been achieved?  Also, I assume by 'some immunity' you mean sufficient to drive down the R value to a level sufficiently below 1.

If so, you must be suggesting the shielding continue for 6-12 months at least?

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Is it your view that the vulnerable should be 'shielded' (which means having their lives significantly restricted) until 'some immunity' has been achieved?  Also, I assume by 'some immunity' you mean sufficient to drive down the R value to a level sufficiently below 1.

If so, you must be suggesting the shielding continue for 6-12 months at least?

The shielding has to continue until the epidemic has receded, either from mass vaccination (with a viable vaccine) or because we have achieved herd immunity.

If you look at Spanish flu, it came in two waves, after which it degraded to something society as a whole could live with.

But we need to look at the bigger picture - the economy needs the less vulnerable to be out there doing the things which put food on the table.

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Superdrug offering C19 antibody testing kits for £69.

https://onlinedoctor.superdrug.com/coronavirus-antibody-test-kits.html

Looks like they've already sold out.

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The shielding has to continue until the epidemic has receded, either from mass vaccination (with a viable vaccine) or because we have achieved herd immunity.

If you look at Spanish flu, it came in two waves, after which it degraded to something society as a whole could live with.

But we need to look at the bigger picture - the economy needs the less vulnerable to be out there doing the things which put food on the table.

Actually Spanish flu came in three waves, not two. The second was the deadliest.

Your understanding of how Spanish Flu ended is flawed, AFAIK. It ended because a sufficient herd immunity threshold was reached.  If that's your end game for Covid-19 then you might want to do the maths.

 

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Your understanding of how Spanish Flu ended is flawed, AFAIK. It ended because a sufficient herd immunity threshold was reached.  If that's your end game for Covid-19 then you might want to do the maths.

 

I'll have a go for himself:

• the FT model has been underestimating slightly the number of excess deaths, but still its latest estimate is 63,300 deaths 


• if 5% of the population has been infected so far and we need 62% for herd immunity, then that would mean 785,000 deaths in the UK


• That of course assumes a rather linear/steady evolution and that the NHS isn't overwhelmed at any stage; if that happened then mortality would be even higher

 

I'll have a go for himself:

• the FT model has been underestimating slightly the number of excess deaths, but still its latest estimate is 63,300 deaths 


• if 5% of the population has been infected so far and we need 62% for herd immunity, then that would mean 785,000 deaths in the UK


• That of course assumes a rather linear/steady evolution and that the NHS isn't overwhelmed at any stage; if that happened then mortality would be even higher

Yep, that was where my invitation was supposed to lead him.

I think Richard might have the word 'economy' glued over the number pad but I live in hope.

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Professor Gupta is back. Tim Martin will be delighted with this intervention I expect!

Pubs and restaurants could reopen now without risking public health, says Oxford scientist

Professor Sunetra Gupta says coronavirus epidemic 'on way out' and urges rapid exit from UK lockdown

Pubs and restaurants could reopen tomorrow without posing the threat of a second wave of coronavirus, a leading Oxford scientist has suggested.

Sunetra Gupta, a professor of Theoretical Epidemiology, said there was a "strong possibility" that the hospitality industry could get back to work without posing a danger to the public.

In an interview, Prof Gupta called for a "rapid exit" from lockdown and said the coronavirus epidemic was already "on the way out". Much of the UK population may already have been exposed to the virus before the Government ordered people to stay at home, she added.

In March, Prof Gupta and her team published a controversial study claiming coronavirus had been spreading for months, with up to half the UK population already exposed.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/21/pubs-restaurants-could-reopen-now-without-risking-public-health/

 

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Immunity doesn't last forever so if we have only got 5% immunity after 2.5-3 months then would we get close to herd immunity before people start becoming un-immune? Could end up just getting stuck on, say, 30% immunity until a vaccine turns up, with vulnerable people having to sit out until that vaccine appears.

Professor Gupta is back. Tim Martin will be delighted with this intervention I expect!

Pubs and restaurants could reopen now without risking public health, says Oxford scientist

Professor Sunetra Gupta says coronavirus epidemic 'on way out' and urges rapid exit from UK lockdown

Pubs and restaurants could reopen tomorrow without posing the threat of a second wave of coronavirus, a leading Oxford scientist has suggested.

Sunetra Gupta, a professor of Theoretical Epidemiology, said there was a "strong possibility" that the hospitality industry could get back to work without posing a danger to the public.

In an interview, Prof Gupta called for a "rapid exit" from lockdown and said the coronavirus epidemic was already "on the way out". Much of the UK population may already have been exposed to the virus before the Government ordered people to stay at home, she added.

In March, Prof Gupta and her team published a controversial study claiming coronavirus had been spreading for months, with up to half the UK population already exposed.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/21/pubs-restaurants-could-reopen-now-without-risking-public-health/

 

Truth and scrutiny don't matter anymore. A load of bullcrap gets pasted around and swallowed by those who want to believe it. Jesus f...king Christ.

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In March, Prof Gupta and her team published a controversial study claiming coronavirus had been spreading for months, with up to half the UK population already exposed.

At that rate we'd probably have double immunity by now.

 

Ah, we touched on this yesterday - the lack of regional breakdown of some of the positive tests meaning that if you total up the number of positive tests for each region of England then you come to a much lower figure than the total number of positives. It looks like the data is a bit of a mess with no-one knowing how many positive tests there are in various regions. Hopefully the system can have the necessary improvements before the next stage starts.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/greater-manchester-still-doesnt-know-18288943

 

Immunity doesn't last forever so if we have only got 5% immunity after 2.5-3 months then would we get close to herd immunity before people start becoming un-immune? Could end up just getting stuck on, say, 30% immunity until a vaccine turns up, with vulnerable people having to sit out until that vaccine appears.

The longevity of immunity is an unknown but I've read and heard suggestions that it should last at least a year and perhaps longer.  The wider concern is the implication for any vaccination programme if immunity is relatively short-lived: having to vaccinate 6-7 billion people possibly every 2 years would be both a massive exercise and a signicant cost to the global healthcare budget.

Even 30% of the population being immune means around 20m cases, a 200k-400k death toll and a severe strain on hospitals. Think of London's experience and double it.

I don't think it's fair or even possible to expect all vulnerable people to remain cocooned for another year or more.

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Professor Gupta is back. Tim Martin will be delighted with this intervention I expect!

Pubs and restaurants could reopen now without risking public health, says Oxford scientist

Professor Sunetra Gupta says coronavirus epidemic 'on way out' and urges rapid exit from UK lockdown

Pubs and restaurants could reopen tomorrow without posing the threat of a second wave of coronavirus, a leading Oxford scientist has suggested.

Sunetra Gupta, a professor of Theoretical Epidemiology, said there was a "strong possibility" that the hospitality industry could get back to work without posing a danger to the public.

In an interview, Prof Gupta called for a "rapid exit" from lockdown and said the coronavirus epidemic was already "on the way out". Much of the UK population may already have been exposed to the virus before the Government ordered people to stay at home, she added.

In March, Prof Gupta and her team published a controversial study claiming coronavirus had been spreading for months, with up to half the UK population already exposed.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/21/pubs-restaurants-could-reopen-now-without-risking-public-health/

 

Four posted a link to a video in which she was interviewed - a page or two back.  Suffice to say her position collapses when it is confronted by the facts.

In any event the epidemic is only 'on the way out' because of the measures taken. As I'm rather fond of analogies her position is akin to saying "Oh look, the car has slowed down now so we don't need the brakes any longer."

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The longevity of immunity is an unknown but I've read and heard suggestions that it should last at least a year and perhaps longer.  The wider concern is the implication for any vaccination programme if immunity is relatively short-lived: having to vaccinate 6-7 billion people possibly every 2 years would be both a massive exercise and a signicant cost to the global healthcare budget.

Even 30% of the population being immune means around 20m cases, a 200k-400k death toll and a severe strain on hospitals. Think of London's experience and double it.

I don't think it's fair or even possible to expect all vulnerable people to remain cocooned for another year or more.

Yep, those are generally my thoughts too. I was just pointing out that idea that herd immunity would be a long way off and we may not reach it anyway. Much better to try and stamp it out now. Believe i am aware of the effect on hospitals as well as the effect on vulnerable people.

Immunity doesn't last forever so if we have only got 5% immunity after 2.5-3 months then would we get close to herd immunity before people start becoming un-immune? Could end up just getting stuck on, say, 30% immunity until a vaccine turns up, with vulnerable people having to sit out until that vaccine appears.

And here's another sobering thought. What if you survive the first attack but succumb through catching it a second time due to the damage the first dose did? 

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Truth and scrutiny don't matter anymore. A load of bullcrap gets pasted around and swallowed by those who want to believe it. Jesus f...king Christ.

There's still too little known to make anything like this statement.
The views of  Sunetra Gupta, a professor of Theoretical Epidemiology are based on far more knowledge than anyone here - except there are "those who don't want to believe it"
Half the population has been effectively brainwashed by 10 weeks of wall to wall gloom and doom and are unable to concede that the 500,000 deaths scenario was completely off the wall

A real epidemic kills off up to half the population like the Black Death.
This disease has been ramped up a bizarre extent when such a small percentage might be affected.
The only 'cure' of ever extending 'three week' lockdowns - as a form of self flagellation - causing economic Armageddon is looking ever more ridiculous.
It is going to cause far more deaths than the virus if it could be ended now, but it will take years to put right the damage already done.

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The longevity of immunity is an unknown but I've read and heard suggestions that it should last at least a year and perhaps longer.  The wider concern is the implication for any vaccination programme if immunity is relatively short-lived: having to vaccinate 6-7 billion people possibly every 2 years would be both a massive exercise and a signicant cost to the global healthcare budget.

Even 30% of the population being immune means around 20m cases, a 200k-400k death toll and a severe strain on hospitals. Think of London's experience and double it.

I don't think it's fair or even possible to expect all vulnerable people to remain cocooned for another year or more.

Things to consider:

*Natural immunity - Some even have natural immunity to HIV 

*Not everybody will catch it.. can you imagine the yearly death tolls in this country alone if 'everybody' caught the flu? Even with flu jabs and anti viral's. I think it was 2017 when this country saw an excess of 50,000 deaths over a couple of months because of the flu. The flu jab for that year was for a potent strain originating in Australia and what ended up happening was the regular flu killed tens of thousands because they hadn't been given the jab for it. 

*We simply have no idea just how widespread within the general population the corona virus is... What if 50% has already had it? It is plausible due to the limited amount of testing that has been done in past months. Its all fine and dandy now testing 100k a day when the peak has long passed but until 100k anti body test are being done a day we won't now the true scale. But lets go with the hypothetical idea half the population has had then the current death toll is no worse then the flu. It certainly wouldn't justify the lock down. 

Assuming this study is reliable it looks like fewer Swedes have been infected with the coronavirus than previously thought. Just 7.3% of people in Stockholm had antibodies at the end of April.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/21/just-7-per-cent-of-stockholm-had-covid-19-antibodies-by-end-of-april-study-sweden-coronavirus

 

And here's another sobering thought. What if you survive the first attack but succumb through catching it a second time due to the damage the first dose did? 

If you had it bad the first time, then your body should have sufficient antibodies to protect from reinfection.

If you only had mild symptoms, or none at all, then perhaps you could get it again. Im no expert of course!

If the virus does damage other organs and leave behind blood clots, then you will be a risk of dying of something else like a heart attack. Boris better be careful during his bonking sessions

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A real epidemic kills off up to half the population like the Black Death.

This disease has been ramped up a bizarre extent when such a small percentage might be affected.
The only 'cure' of ever extending 'three week' lockdowns - as a form of self flagellation - causing economic Armageddon is looking ever more ridiculous.
It is going to cause far more deaths than the virus if it could be ended now, but it will take years to put right the damage already done.

The reason the plague killed half the population was because they had no proper medicine back then. They were still using leaches. And of course, most lower class people were already in a poor state of health to begin with

I have sympathy with your economic argument and I think any lockdown cannot last beyond 8 weeks. But unlike other countries, we haven't got our rate low enough. So just like America, we will have to accept a high daily death count until either herd immunity is reached or a vaccine is ready

 

 

 

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