Oi!

Corona with a wedge of lime for me  (really!)

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This I don't get. Other countries have done or are doing wide-scale antibody testing. Triggle makes it sound like there is no urgency in the UK. Personally I think we should already have done population samples. In fact the apparent lack of urgency beggars belief

 

Instead, officials will be keeping an eye on whether those who have antibodies are at lower risk of re-infection.

The test may also help with surveillance in time.

A large sample of the population could be tested to look for signs of antibodies.

One of the great unknowns is just how many people have been infected but have not developed symptoms. [source: Nick Triggle]

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A humiliating u-turn

NHS staff and care workers from overseas are to be exempt from paying a surcharge to use the health service after mounting pressure from MPs.

Boris Johnson's spokesman said the PM had asked the Home Office and Department for Health to exempt NHS and care workers "as soon as possible".

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said it was "a victory for common decency"...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52761052

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A humiliating u-turn

NHS staff and care workers from overseas are to be exempt from paying a surcharge to use the health service after mounting pressure from MPs.

Boris Johnson's spokesman said the PM had asked the Home Office and Department for Health to exempt NHS and care workers "as soon as possible".

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said it was "a victory for common decency"...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52761052

Great news. I wonder what MM has to say after defending the HMG decision 

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What IS it about Kent? It's been top of the pile for weeks now and in absolute terms we're now seeing more cases than London (and multiples more than any other county)...

Kent is big. Because of its large population, it is only 53rd out of 149 local authority areas; that is in the top half admittedly but below many London boroughs. It currently has 294.4 cases per 100,000 of population.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-tracker-how-many-cases-are-in-your-area-updated-daily-11956258

Bromley and Bexley aren't in Kent, they are in their own authority areas. Bromley currently has 381.5 cases per 100,000. Bexley is slightly lower than Kent with 283.5 per 100,000.

Worst upper tier local authority in England is Sunderland with 491.7 per 100,000.
Worst lower tier local authority in England is Barrow in Furness with 829.6 per 100,000.
Worst upper tier local authority in the UK is "Cardiff and Vale" with 509.9 per 100,000.

 

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I noticed Robbie Savage had a question at the daily briefing

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Test results suggest that 17% of people in London have antibodies, 5% outside London.

Interesting: so the R value in London is down to about 1.8 but hardly changed elsewhere at around 2.3

 

Given the number of cases in London I don't think it's surprising that the number with antibodies is relatively high.  It does rather undermine the case in Four's video.

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A humiliating u-turn

NHS staff and care workers from overseas are to be exempt from paying a surcharge to use the health service after mounting pressure from MPs.

Boris Johnson's spokesman said the PM had asked the Home Office and Department for Health to exempt NHS and care workers "as soon as possible".

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said it was "a victory for common decency"...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52761052

Given that Johnson singled out two foreign nurses who helped keep him alive I was somewhat surprised at his initial stance. It looked like such an obvious concession to give, with some obvious PR advantages, whereas the initial position was nothing but negative.

A quick bit of arithmetic suggests that there are 150,000 foreign workers in health and social care (£600 each and an annual cost of £90m).

 

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Test results suggest that 17% of people in London have antibodies, 5% outside London.

What test results are being referred to?

Edit: Sorry, I've just read it is what Hancock said. Therefore it seems antibody testing has been taking place? I wonder how big the sample size is. 

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What test results are being referred to?

An antibody surveillance study - didnt go into more details than that.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2020/may/21/london-17-of-population-may-have-had-coronavirus-says-matt-hancock-video

 

Given that Johnson singled out two foreign nurses who helped keep him alive I was somewhat surprised at his initial stance. It looked like such an obvious concession to give, with some obvious PR advantages, whereas the initial position was nothing but negative.

A quick bit of arithmetic suggests that there are 150,000 foreign workers in health and social care (£600 each and an annual cost of £90m).

 

Which is nothing given the funds being thrown around. A bit like taking away rail concessions for under 17's, again a small amount of funding which is being denied to a lot of families who will find it difficult to make up the shortfall.  

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Just reading about the briefing. So Hancock has said a decision to delay the NHS app-ocalypse has been taken and it isn't needed for track and trace anyway. Christ on a cracker. I doubt even the Chinese would spew out inconsistent drivel like this. I'm not really sure the UK government has a the required competencies currently available. They badly need to up their game. Move one should be replacing Hancock with Hunt. Give Hancock the chance to say he is exhausted and suffering from stress and going on his own volition.      

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKh6kJ-RSMI

That's patently wrong, and has been thoroughly debunked already, Colin.

For a start, the very low IFR of 1 in 1000 is impossible. It would imply that 200% of New York City had already got infected.

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Professor Gupta

Oh dear. I only read the text of interview, but I am at a loss:

• she used to call for antibody testing and now she dismisses them because their results don't fit her model 


• She dismisses even the very reliable antibody tests that have been verified independently without providing any evidence


• She continues to think that the mortality rate is between 0.01 - 0.1%, when in NYC ~0.23% of the population (not of patients!) has died (so far)


• She explains the above 'through a combination of circumstances leading to unusually bad outbreaks, including the infection load and the layout of the population'. Isn't that the whole problem? That there are many more places with high density population and pockets of deprivation that could lead to mortality rates hugely higher than her estimates?

I am trying to keep an open mind, but it just smacks of dangerous nonsense and inflated academic egos. Interesting also that the results of her unpublished modelling study were leaked to the media in March via a PR company and not via Oxford Uni press dept.

For a start, the very low IFR of 1 in 1000 is impossible. It would imply that 200% of New York City had already got infected.

Keep an open mind Nick...

Just reading about the briefing. So Hancock has said a decision to delay the NHS app-ocalypse has been taken and it isn't needed for track and trace anyway. Christ on a cracker. I doubt even the Chinese would spew out inconsistent drivel like this. I'm not really sure the UK government has a the required competencies currently available. They badly need to up their game. Move one should be replacing Hancock with Hunt. Give Hancock the chance to say he is exhausted and suffering from stress and going on his own volition.      

Hancock is clearly the worst person to have in charge at Health at a time of pandemic. He is a lying and snivelling little weasel. If I was still in a position to commission hacks to go out and dig, I would have everything thrown at him to reduce him to ashes.  He wouldn't last a day.

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Oh dear. I only read the text of interview, but I am at a loss:

• she used to call for antibody testing and now she dismisses them because their results don't fit her model 


• She dismisses even the very reliable antibody tests that have been verified independently without providing any evidence


• She continues to think that the mortality rate is between 0.01 - 0.1%, when in NYC ~0.23% of the population (not of patients!) has died (so far)


• She explains the above 'through a combination of circumstances leading to unusually bad outbreaks, including the infection load and the layout of the population'. Isn't that the whole problem? That there are many more places with high density population and pockets of deprivation that could lead to mortality rates hugely higher than her estimates?

I am trying to keep an open mind, but it just smacks of dangerous nonsense and inflated academic egos. Interesting also that the results of her unpublished modelling study were leaked to the media in March via a PR company and not via Oxford Uni press dept.

Yes she's totally out on a limb and flying in the face of the accumulating evidence. Perhaps she should stick to her other career as a novelist.

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Just reading about the briefing. So Hancock has said a decision to delay the NHS app-ocalypse has been taken and it isn't needed for track and trace anyway. Christ on a cracker. I doubt even the Chinese would spew out inconsistent drivel like this. I'm not really sure the UK government has a the required competencies currently available. They badly need to up their game. Move one should be replacing Hancock with Hunt. Give Hancock the chance to say he is exhausted and suffering from stress and going on his own volition.      

From New Scientist..

UK needs contact strategy to prevent second wave of covid-19

Time is running out to prevent a second surge of infection in the UK

The NHS Confederation, a membership body that represents people who commission or provide NHS services, has warned of the urgent need for a UK contact tracing strategy. “Our members are concerned that unless there is a clear strategy, then there must be a greater risk of a second wave of infections and serious health consequences,” chief executive Niall Dickson wrote in a letter sent to the UK’s health and social care minister Matt Hancock yesterday. “We would therefore urge you to produce such a strategy with a clear implementation plan ahead of any further easing of the lockdown.” 

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-uk-needs-contact-strategy-to-prevent-second-wave-of-covid-19/

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I see Gideon Osborne's Evening Standard is spinning that since excess deaths are at winter levels, then everything is OK and we can open up the economy

If this is true, then it just shows the virus is not affected by warmer weather all that much

 

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I think there is a different plausible reason to this. The Zoe app has been showing a plateau and slight increase in the number of people with symptoms for 10 days now. A steady quarter of a million with symptoms.  This ties up to some extent with Government data and is completely logical. This could be because the vulnerable and elderly are either dead and/or adhering well to the lock down still. The number of fitter and younger people are mixing more and going to work. So they are catching it but by nature of the disease they will be less severe so not needing hospital admission or dying. So we have to be very careful - the admissions and deaths are clearly falling but even the government data shows infection rates are high so it is not safe for the elderly and compromised to drop their guard and the government needs to emphasise this.

Surely it is good news if the vulnerable are shielded and more of those who don't suffer very bad symptoms are more likely to be infected and build up some immunity?

 

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