See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52715571.

 

If VE Day parties had caused an uptick in the number of cases, or a levelling off, then we might expect to see that about now?

11 days ago wasn't it?...maybe a little too soon - who knows. 

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Just reflecting on the total and utter polar opposite in the way that Gordon Brown and Boris Johnson manage/ managed crisis....and I’m not saying which one is right....GB as we know was a control freak...BJ seems to be happy to delegate and keep his head down and let others take the flack ....having said I wasn’t going to say which one was right...there are clearly downsides to both approaches....none the less I think I would expect our PM to have a bit more of a higher profile...one thing is clear tho...Churchillian he most certainly ain’t!

I am amazed that people are surprised that the Government are blaming the Scientists. I remember posting a long time back that I'd noticed " we're taking the advice of our Scientists" was being used at every opportunity by every different spokesperson with unhealthy repetition. This is the usual Cummings based tactic as with "Get Brexit Done" to hammer a message into the psyche of the plebs. I realised then that it was just the pre-planning for laying the blame at their door if it all went wrong and it looks like it has proved to be the case.

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Regional data for new cases today in England

The 7 English regions 

• London +42 (0.2%) 26,529


• Midlands +181 (0.7%) 24,431


• North West +151 (0.6%) 23,937


• North East and Yorkshire +175 (0.8%) 23,001


• South East +86 (0.4%) 20,414


• East of England +44 (0.3%) 13,173


• South West +25 (0.3%) 7,340

The 10 local areas with the highest cases

1. Kent +32 (0.7%) 4,507


2. Lancashire +27 (0.8%) 3,378


3. Birmingham +16 (0.5%) 3,319


4. Hampshire +15 (0.5%) 3,183


5. Essex +7 (0.2%) 3,091


6. Surrey +13 (0.5%) 2,832


7. Hertfordshire +7 (0.3%) 2,768


8. Sheffield +9 (0.4%) 2,486


9. Cumbria +3 (0.1%) 2,148


10. Staffordshire +15 (0.7%) 2,105

The 10 local areas with the lowest cases

1. Rutland 32 - No change


2. North East Lincolnshire 148 - No change


3. Isle of Wight 178 - No change


4. Torbay 221 - No change


5. Bath and North East Somerset +2 (0.9%) 230


6. Bracknell Forest +1 (0.4%) 237


7. Windsor and Maidenhead -1 ( 279) One case removed 


8. Calderdale +2 (0.7%) 285


9. Hartlepool +9 (3.0%) 304


10. Portsmouth 312 - No change

Just reflecting on the total and utter polar opposite in the way that Gordon Brown and Boris Johnson manage/ managed crisis....and I’m not saying which one is right....GB as we know was a control freak...BJ seems to be happy to delegate and keep his head down and let others take the flack ....having said I wasn’t going to say which one was right...there are clearly downsides to both approaches....none the less I think I would expect our PM to have a bit more of a higher profile...one thing is clear tho...Churchillian he most certainly ain’t!

Gordon Brown may have been a control freak as PM but he was competent, measured and good with detail. Our current 'Prime Minister' is none of those things. He is insouciant, reckless, devoid of morals, devoid of empathy, easily bored and unable to concentrate for more than 60 seconds unless he is looking at somebody else's wife. It is why we have getting on for 60,000 dead

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If VE Day parties had caused an uptick in the number of cases, or a levelling off, then we might expect to see that about now?

I'm thinking the same, I'll be looking at the new case number closely over the coming days. Like John says it might be too soon now but later this week and early next week after the weekend lag will be the days to watch, in my opinion.

edit: just seen ozone's link 

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Ontario schools to remain shut until after summer here

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-coronavirus-ontario-may-19-school-year-update-1.5574966

I broadly support this. Not a lot of point re-opening for a few weeks in a set up where the kids would probably have just been learning how to wash their hands and stay away from their friends .

I would have considered moving the summer break forward a few weeks and then getting the teaching staff in early in summer to prepare before September but this may have not been practical. Hopefully when they restart in September it can at least be a little closer to "normal".

 

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The failure of PHE

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Not sure what to make of this other than good news if true.

Coronavirus deaths in Britain could stop by end of June, scientists say
Number of deaths on Monday was 545, down from 627 a week ago, and seven-day average is now 378

Deaths from coronavirus in Britain could stop by the end of June if current trends continue, scientists have said.

The number of deaths on Monday was 545, down from 627 a week ago, and the seven-day average is now 378. Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that, on average, deaths are now falling at a rate of around 30 each day.

Carl Heneghan, professor of evidence-based medicine at the University of Oxford, said that there would be a sporadic rise and fall in deaths over the next four to six weeks but he would not expect to find coronavirus listed in the ONS death data by the end of June.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/19/coronavirus-deaths-britain-could-stop-end-june-scientists-say/

 

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Deaths from coronavirus in Britain could stop by the end of June if current trends continue, scientists have said.

It's even better than this, the trend will continue beyond July with people resurrected. 

 

It's even better than this, the trend will continue beyond July with people resurrected. 

I look forward to Gavin D's stats saying that PHE have reported -14 deaths today 

Anyway, I think the content of that article, like many of its kind, comes with usual caveats of looking so far ahead. There's a lot to get right if we're looking at no deaths by July and I'm not sure I trust the powers that be to deliver on it.

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The failure of PHE

It's tempting to agree with you, but you can't have it both ways. When I listed the successes of the govt I mentioned the impressive increase of ICUs. You, Maunder etc. also attribute this as a success of the govt (and not of the NHS) and then blame PHE for other failures. You can't have it both ways, both PHE and the NHS are run by the govt and in fact PHE was setup in 2013 by a Tory health secretary.

Not sure what to make of this other than good news if true.

Coronavirus deaths in Britain could stop by end of June, scientists say
Number of deaths on Monday was 545, down from 627 a week ago, and seven-day average is now 378

Deaths from coronavirus in Britain could stop by the end of June if current trends continue, scientists have said.

The number of deaths on Monday was 545, down from 627 a week ago, and the seven-day average is now 378. Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that, on average, deaths are now falling at a rate of around 30 each day.

Carl Heneghan, professor of evidence-based medicine at the University of Oxford, said that there would be a sporadic rise and fall in deaths over the next four to six weeks but he would not expect to find coronavirus listed in the ONS death data by the end of June.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/19/coronavirus-deaths-britain-could-stop-end-june-scientists-say/

 

It is easy to follow a curve down and predict when it will bottom out - assuming nothing changes - but it has and will.

Perhaps he has done some detailed modelling to show that the relaxation in the lockdown will have no effect.

Is his model available for public scrutiny and ridicule like Ferguson's?

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The failure of PHE

Anything but holding those actually in charge accountable for 60,000 deaths, eh? Defend your precious Tory Party to the death.

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It's tempting to agree with you, but you can't have it both ways. When I listed the successes of the govt I mentioned the impressive increase of ICUs. You, Maunder etc. also attribute this as a success of the govt (and not of the NHS) and then blame PHE for other failures. You can't have it both ways, both PHE and the NHS are run by the govt and in fact PHE was setup in 2013 by a Tory health secretary.

Yes it is strange that any hint of success is due to our faultless gov't but any failure is the responsibility of a third party - which just happens to be an arm of gov't.

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More on the NHS app-ocalypse

Security flaws found in UK's contact-tracing app

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It appears that Johnson has been busy after all, nominating Captain Tom Moore for a Knighthood...Isn't it simply marvellous that we have a PM with his finger on the pulse with the most important decisions to be made....