The reporting here of this vaccine is way off.

It's still not as good as the Chinese vaccine though, which successfully stopped a reinfection entirely. They gave them two doses - would the Oxford vaccine have fared better with two doses, perhaps?

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/covid-19-vaccine-protects-monkeys-new-coronavirus-chinese-biotech-reports

Researchers from Sinovac Biotech, a privately held Beijing-based company, gave two different doses of their COVID-19 vaccine to a total of eight rhesus macaques. Three weeks later, the group introduced SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, into the monkeys’ lungs through tubes down their tracheas, and none developed a full-blown infection.

and as Forbes reports:

All of the vaccinated monkeys treated with the Oxford vaccine became infected when challenged, as judged by recovery of virus genomic RNA from nasal secretions. There was no difference in the amount of viral RNA detected from this site in the vaccinated monkeys as compared to the unvaccinated animals. Which is to say, all vaccinated animals were infected. This observation is in marked contrast to the results reported from Sinovac trial. At the highest dose studied, no virus was recovered from vaccinated monkeys from the throat, lung, or rectum of the vaccinated animals. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/05/16/did-the-oxford-covid-vaccine-work-in-monkeys-not-really/#3dd0c8663c71

 

 

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The reporting here of this vaccine is way off. The results in primates were very promising. It was a single dose that was given against a high viral load, including nasal infection (unlike other vaccine tests). The impact a single dose had (when the vaccine is not envisaged as single dose) was significant and promising.

Might I suggest this is one of those moments when Twitter IS useful rather than simply latching onto an article that has now been passed around different media outlets. On Twitter a whole series of epidemiologists have stepped in to critique this negative take.

Thanks Nick.

Definitely a time to be wary of media articles. I think it says a lot that at least two mainstream news outlets have interpreted this vaccine progress completely differently. 

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It's still not as good as the Chinese vaccine though, which successfully stopped a reinfection entirely. They gave them two doses - would the Oxford vaccine have fared better with two doses, perhaps?

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/covid-19-vaccine-protects-monkeys-new-coronavirus-chinese-biotech-reports

Researchers from Sinovac Biotech, a privately held Beijing-based company, gave two different doses of their COVID-19 vaccine to a total of eight rhesus macaques. Three weeks later, the group introduced SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, into the monkeys’ lungs through tubes down their tracheas, and none developed a full-blown infection.

and as Forbes reports:

All of the vaccinated monkeys treated with the Oxford vaccine became infected when challenged, as judged by recovery of virus genomic RNA from nasal secretions. There was no difference in the amount of viral RNA detected from this site in the vaccinated monkeys as compared to the unvaccinated animals. Which is to say, all vaccinated animals were infected. This observation is in marked contrast to the results reported from Sinovac trial. At the highest dose studied, no virus was recovered from vaccinated monkeys from the throat, lung, or rectum of the vaccinated animals. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/05/16/did-the-oxford-covid-vaccine-work-in-monkeys-not-really/#3dd0c8663c71

 

 

As usual, the details reveal it is not so clear-cut.

Sinovac gave 3 doses, I think; Oxford 1.

Oxford vaccine was challenged with a dose of the virus that was 2.6 times higher than the Sinovac trial.

Sinovac trials did not challenge the animals via the nose, only via tubes.

Sinovac did not test for nasal shedding at all, unlike Oxford.

 

Not saying this means the Oxford vaccine is NOT below the Chinese one in how promising it is, just that that Forbes report - on which the articles are based - does NOT tell the whole story, and has been seriously caveated by epidemiologists.

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Meanwhile in human trials of an American vaccine...

The first coronavirus vaccine tested on humans appears safe and generated antibodies which stopped the virus replicating, according to early trial results shared on Monday. 

Eight healthy volunteers saw few adverse effects after taking two doses of the potential vaccine, according to Moderna, its manufacturer based in Massachusetts. 

It appeared to trigger an immune response - the critical requirement of a working vaccine - producing "neutralising antibodies" in all eight of the patients. 

The levels of those antibodies were similar to that found in people who caught Covid-19 and then recovered. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/18/coronavirus-vaccine-first-human-trial-shows-signs-creating-immunity/

 

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Two observations:-

1. Confirmed cases 2,684 which is down. Yet this was described as a "continuous fall" which it clearly isn't as the previous five points on his graph were indicating a plateau or  in fact a slight rise ! 


2.  The mobility data is from i-phones only. Although the market share in the UK with android is about 50/50 I would think the data will be skewed towards the higher income groups as there are far more "affordable" Android phones available.

With confirmed cases, there is a lag with results of up to several days.  So those results returned yesterday are not the tests taken yesterday.  You would hope those in ‘the know’ would make allowances for this, which could explain their reference to ‘continuous fall, but I’d also expect them to state this for the sake of clarity!  It does appear that the case numbers are falling though.  

Gavin does the test percentages but they’re wrong because he calculates yesterday’s returned results against yesterday’s tests conducted.  It’s misleading, but he does a great job posting the up to date stats!  

Hospital admissions are down though, which suggests a high proportion of those testing positive, are milder cases. 

All in all, it’s currently looking better.  Let’s hope we can keep it that way!  

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Not saying this means the Oxford vaccine is NOT below the Chinese one in how promising it is, just that that Forbes report - on which the articles are based - does NOT tell the whole story, and has been seriously caveated by epidemiologists.

Indeed, it would be good to get some consistency in testing methods - it makes it very hard to compare results!

(Incidentally, something which would normally be greeted with howls of outrage - testing on monkeys - is now seen in a good light. It's funny the way things change over time!)

 

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9,408 in hospital is today's figure in Great Britain. Figure for Great Britain yesterday was 9,406. 

So not a "sustained fall" as Van Dam claims. Shame when scientists are roped into doing Govt PR

 

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Indeed, it would be good to get some consistency in testing methods - it makes it very hard to compare results!

(Incidentally, something which would normally be greeted with howls of outrage - testing on monkeys - is now seen in a good light. It's funny the way things change over time!)

 

Yes, I suppose its a bit like when you are starving, even a vegan would eat meat if it was all that was available

I would like to know what happens to the monkeys afterwards. I hope the Chinese don't turn them into soup

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With confirmed cases, there is a lag with results of up to several days.  So those results returned yesterday are not the tests taken yesterday.  You would hope those in ‘the know’ would make allowances for this, which could explain their reference to ‘continuous fall, but I’d also expect them to state this for the sake of clarity!  It does appear that the case numbers are falling though.  

Gavin does the test percentages but they’re wrong because he calculates yesterday’s returned results against yesterday’s tests conducted.  It’s misleading, but he does a great job posting the up to date stats!  

Hospital admissions are down though, which suggests a high proportion of those testing positive, are milder cases. 

All in all, it’s currently looking better.  Let’s hope we can keep it that way!  

Yes, I think if we take a step back and look at where we are now compared to a month ago we are in a better place, irrespective of the reasons how we got here or who has been right or wrong! 

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So not a "sustained fall" as Van Dam claims. Shame when scientists are roped into doing Govt PR

 

I think over a longer period these trends are down but they shouldn't keep ignoring the blips to spin the preferred outcome. That's how you end up with the next excuse which is "it's easy with hindsight".

 

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Yes, I think if we take a step back and look at where we are now compared to a month ago we are in a better place, irrespective of the reasons how we got here or who has been right or wrong! 

Yes, the lockdown was working, just a shame Boris ended it last Sunday. We wont know what the consequences of that will be for another few weeks

Where is Boris? Gone on another holiday?

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Yes, the lockdown was working, just a shame Boris ended it last Sunday. We wont know what the consequences of that will be for another few weeks

Where is Boris? Gone on another holiday?

I was thinking that. Hardly ever in view these days. He is either still not that well, which is quite possible, or is realising this job isn't quite the cakewalk he was expecting and wants out!

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Yes, the lockdown was working, just a shame Boris ended it last Sunday. We wont know what the consequences of that will be for another few weeks

Where is Boris? Gone on another holiday?

If everyone followed the rules, there would no reason for cases to rise.  We all need to take some responsibility for our actions!  The blame game can’t be played if you’re dead!

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Another one bites the dust

 

A 49-year-old man has fallen out of a sixth-floor window of a Moscow hospital for coronavirus patients and died, Russian media reports. https://t.co/i8TvxFfKRb

Three Russian doctors treating coronavirus patients also fell out of windows in recent weeks. https://t.co/qvaQOevRDq

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 18, 2020

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Yes, the lockdown was working, just a shame Boris ended it last Sunday. We wont know what the consequences of that will be for another few weeks

Where is Boris? Gone on another holiday?

He should be out there rubbing noses with his enthusiastic supporters like Bolsonaro.

Although even Bolsonaro is wearing a face mask now

Bolsonaro snubs health advice, snaps photos with children

Bolsonaro's latest flouting of social-distancing guidelines comes after he lost two health ministers in a month.

Wearing a face mask, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro posed for photographs with children plucked out of a crowd of supporters on Sunday, disregarding public health advice aimed at containing one of the world's worst coronavirus outbreaks.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/brazil-bolsonaro-snubs-health-advice-snaps-photos-children-200518150403905.html

 

 

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If everyone followed the rules, there would no reason for cases to rise.  We all need to take some responsibility for our actions!  The blame game can’t be played if you’re dead!

I know what you're saying but aren't there rules because some simply aren't responsible? Remove rules, relax rules, leave us to 'take responsibility' and the irresponsible will be just that.

The 'good' news is that, while sometimes crooks, liars, thieves get away with crime there's a better chance that if you are if your a irresponsible fool this virus will get you and you wont get away with being a irresponsible fool. However, if you abide by the rules you'll be ok.

I don't want to see anyone die (never have) but I'd guess the next wave will be disproportionately composed of fools, irresponsibles, nuts and wackos.

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Yes, the lockdown was working, just a shame Boris ended it last Sunday. We wont know what the consequences of that will be for another few weeks

Where is Boris? Gone on another holiday?

He did not end the lockdown, he relaxed it. The strict lockdown was breaking down in any case, so some relaxation was inevitable.

From the Evening Standard :

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/coronavirus-uk-live-updates-latest-death-toll-lockdown-a4442976.html

"Boris Johnson’s administration is right to start reopening schools, former Labour prime minister Tony Blair has said.

The Government’s plans to start sending children back to school next month has come under attack from teaching unions and some local authorities, with critics arguing it is too soon to lift the coronavirus-related lockdown restrictions.

In an interview with BBC Newsnight, due to be broadcast on Monday evening, the PM of 10 years said the Government was adhering to scientific advice by preparing schools to open their doors again.

“They’re right, I think, to be reopening the schools,” said Mr Blair.

“I don’t think they would say that they’re putting school opening above health risks. What they’re doing is basing it on the evidence, actually.

“There are countries that have reopened parts, at least, of their school system.”"

 

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If everyone followed the rules, there would no reason for cases to rise.  We all need to take some responsibility for our actions!  The blame game can’t be played if you’re dead!

Nah, it's all someone else's problem, someone else's fault, cos wee got rites 

Thatcherism is so 1980s.  No-one has personal responsibilities any more 

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He did not end the lockdown, he relaxed it. The strict lockdown was breaking down in any case, so some relaxation was inevitable.

From the Evening Standard :

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/coronavirus-uk-live-updates-latest-death-toll-lockdown-a4442976.html

"Boris Johnson’s administration is right to start reopening schools, former Labour prime minister Tony Blair has said.

The Government’s plans to start sending children back to school next month has come under attack from teaching unions and some local authorities, with critics arguing it is too soon to lift the coronavirus-related lockdown restrictions.

In an interview with BBC Newsnight, due to be broadcast on Monday evening, the PM of 10 years said the Government was adhering to scientific advice by preparing schools to open their doors again.

“They’re right, I think, to be reopening the schools,” said Mr Blair.

“I don’t think they would say that they’re putting school opening above health risks. What they’re doing is basing it on the evidence, actually.

“There are countries that have reopened parts, at least, of their school system.”"

 

Given that "socialist" teflon Tony is now heavily invested in the property market and now only hob-nobs with the super-rich I can see why he holds that view.

 

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I know what you're saying but aren't there rules because some simply aren't responsible? Remove rules, relax rules, leave us to 'take responsibility' and the irresponsible will be just that.

The 'good' news is that, while sometimes crooks, liars, thieves get away with crime there's a better chance that if you are if your a irresponsible fool this virus will get you and you wont get away with being a irresponsible fool. However, if you abide by the rules you'll be ok.

I don't want to see anyone die (never have) but I'd guess the next wave will be disproportionately composed of fools, irresponsibles, nuts and wackos.

And nurses, doctors, carers, bus drivers, shop workers. Same again.

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