It was good to talk to a friend in the flesh yesterday. Now to think about meeting our daughter again

 

 

At national level, both Laura Kuenssberg https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52670086 and Charlie Brooker last night taking a [pop at the Government surely means that the licence fee is more under threat than ever. Or does it mean that the BBC reckons that Keir Starmer will be able to oppose that measure successfully?

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Headlines for Beast

To-go drinks in US https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52656756

and pubs (albeit limited) open in NSW

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52671694 (live feed at 0610)

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Dramatic turn of events according to the Tele which is suggesting the virus could be wiped out in London within weeks. Great news if true. 

Edit: Obvious q. If it can be "wiped out" in London why can't it be wiped out in the rest of the UK and other European countries too? Perhaps we'll be getting back to normal much sooner than expected.

 

London has just 24 new coronavirus cases a day

Capital's lockdown questioned as Public Health England models suggest virus will be wiped out in June

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/14/london-has-just-24-new-coronavirus-cases-day/

 

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Nearly created a full scale riot in our street , at 8pm ready for the clapping approximately 10 people came out of one house ( Polish ) , 4 walked off down the street , 3 got in a car and 3 stood smoking. Not remotely interested in clapping .

I reminded them of the pandemic and got told " its over " , red rag to bull with me .

If this is indicative of the UK then good luck 

 

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Dramatic turn of events according to the Tele which is suggesting the virus could be wiped out in London within weeks. Great news if true. 

 

London has just 24 new coronavirus cases a day

Capital's lockdown questioned as Public Health England models suggest virus will be wiped out in June

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/14/london-has-just-24-new-coronavirus-cases-day/

 

 

Hope it is right but I'm struggling with this if I'm honest to be honest.  There is a massive non sequitur here.  IF the virus is as contagious as the experts re saying, given we are seeing people crammed into Public Transport and a large slice of people  not bothering to Social Distance properly now,  then you would expect to see a spike.

Either the touted  R value is  bollox, we have   hugely more people with antibodies than the studies show  or the projection is  bollox.  Something has to give.

 

 

 

 

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  or the projection is  bollox. 

 

 

It's this obviously, people can't surely have believed UK would have over 500,000 deaths when he world total is about half that.
Like everywhere else it will decline rapidly and pious self flagellation by devastating your own economy for years to come makes next to no difference.

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Hope it is right but I'm struggling with this if I'm honest to be honest.  There is a massive non sequitur here.  IF the virus is as contagious as the experts re saying, given we are seeing people crammed into Public Transport and a large slice of people  not bothering to Social Distance properly now,  then you would expect to see a spike.

Either the touted  R value is  bollox, we have   hugely more people with antibodies than the studies show  or the projection is  bollox.  Something has to give.

Think that's spot on. TBH I have often wondered if something is amiss. My understanding is viruses with a mortality rate this high usually have a lower R rate. 

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Think that's spot on. TBH I have often wondered if something is amiss. My understanding is viruses with a mortality rate this high usually have a lower R rate. 

That IMO is only  a historical view; there's no reason in principle that a virus with both high mortality and high R should not exist - of course this would wipe out its host species so it is to be hoped (and indeed looks as if) covid 19 doesn't exhibit such extreme behaviour. 

Indeed, smallpox is a virus which was around in Eurasia for a long time so there was some herd immunity there - but when it was introduced by Europeans to other areas it proved to be an infection with high mortality and high R. It wiped out 90% of some native American and even 100% of some African populations. (Which, incidentally, is why colonisation of those areas was such a pushover)

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_smallpox 

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Well, let's be positive. The good news this morning is that the UK Government is going to take public health very seriously in future.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/boris-johnson-to-launch-war-on-fat-after-coronavirus-scare-flgswhmvx

"Boris Johnson is preparing a “much more interventionist” drive to tackle obesity as part of the fight against coronavirus after his spell in hospital with the disease.

The prime minister told senior ministers and advisers, “I’ve changed my mind on this” and that he was drawing up a new strategy.

Research has found that being obese doubles the risk of needing hospital treatment for coronavirus. About one in three British adults is clinically obese, classified as those with a body mass index (BMI) above 30. It is one of the highest rates in the western world.

..."

• if you are looking for the reason behind high mortality rates in the UK and USA, look no further - COVID-19 is a virus missile which seeks out the elderly, those with existing health problems and the obese.

Unfortunately, there is not a lot we can do about getting old or having people with horrible life threatening conditions like cancer or MS, but we can do something about fat people who should otherwise be healthy. One of the key signatures of younger people requiring hospitalisation with COVID-19 has been Type 2 diabetes - a fat person's illness.

Get lean, get fit and beat the virus should be the slogan!

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Dramatic turn of events according to the Tele which is suggesting the virus could be wiped out in London within weeks. Great news if true. 

Edit: Obvious q. If it can be "wiped out" in London why can't it be wiped out in the rest of the UK and other European countries too? Perhaps we'll be getting back to normal much sooner than expected.

 

London has just 24 new coronavirus cases a day

Capital's lockdown questioned as Public Health England models suggest virus will be wiped out in June

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/14/london-has-just-24-new-coronavirus-cases-day/

 

Its factually incorrect though. Yesterday there was 88 and that I think is the lowest for a while, but still not 24.

I wonder what the picture will be in 14 days. There has been a lot more mixing of people these last fives days.

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As I've said before, China does not have a monopoly on cover-ups and intimidation

Doctors 'told not to discuss PPE shortages'

One doctor who had posted concerns about PPE shortages online spoke to BBC Newsnight anonymously, for fear of reprisal from his hospital.

"They hauled me up in front of a panel of senior managers - it was very, very intimidating", he said.

"They kept on feeding me what felt like government type of lines, saying 'this hospital has never had PPE shortages' - which I know to be factually untrue. And that essentially I should stop causing a fuss.

Another doctor told the programme they were called into a meeting with senior NHS managers after speaking to the press about a lack of PPE.

They said they were told by their manager that if they continued to speak out they would get a "reputation" and "find it hard to get a job at that trust or others in the region".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52671814

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Every Thursday it seems the papers go into overdrive into making it appears the end is near. This will make people assume normal activities to a large degree over the weekends.

Perhaps we won’t get a second wave, but I can’t understand how we won’t see an uptick in cases.

I expect social interactions in households to increase massively this weekend.

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Every Thursday it seems the papers go into overdrive into making it appears the end is near. This will make people assume normal activities to a large degree over the weekends.

Perhaps we won’t get a second wave, but I can’t understand how we won’t see an uptick in cases.

I expect social interactions in households to increase massively this weekend.

In countries that relaxed their lockdown earlier than the UK e.g Denmark and Austria, there has been no uptick in cases so I’m hopeful that we will see similar here. I think social distancing and no mass events are key to keeping the numbers ticking over.

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As I've said before, China does not have a monopoly on cover-ups and intimidation

By your distorted world view, you regard Chris Patten as a "racist" - he was on the PM programme the other night, lambasting China for not being open, for dodgy statistics and distortion.

You once absurdly called me "racist" for suggesting that China's statistics were very suspect and not credible.

I was also dished by Doc for saying at the time (in February) that "the WHO had been behind the curve from the start" - Chris Patten also confirmed this, stating that the WHO is dominated by China to the extent that it won't even mention Taiwan which has been the most effective country in dealing with the virus from the outset.

 

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In countries that relaxed their lockdown earlier than the UK e.g Denmark and Austria, there has been no uptick in cases so I’m hopeful that we will see similar here. I think social distancing and no mass events are key to keeping the numbers ticking over.

Should we wait until our new daily case rate is the same as Denmark and Austria’s or should we ease the lockdown far sooner than when they reached those levels?

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Should we wait until our new daily case rate is the same as Denmark and Austria’s or should we ease the lockdown far sooner than when they reached those levels?

 

Personally, I think we are taking a real risk in slackening things off at the levels they currently have. I would have been happier if we had stuck with "Stay at home"  for a few weeks more. Although it was starting to "fray at the edges"  the current "woolly" message seems to have initiated a total free-for-all.   However, as always, time will tell.

 

 

 

 

 

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Should we wait until our new daily case rate is the same as Denmark and Austria’s or should we ease the lockdown far sooner than when they reached those levels?

Are you talking about per capita, or in absolute terms?

 

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Mass demonstrations against the so called lockdown are planned in London tomorrow.

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Should we wait until our new daily case rate is the same as Denmark and Austria’s or should we ease the lockdown far sooner than when they reached those levels?

When Denmark eased their restrictions cases were growing at a rate of 2.9%, here it was 1.5%.

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Mass demonstrations against the so called lockdown are planned in London tomorrow.

And where did you read that?

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