https://twitter.com/_MiguelHernan/status/1260625031119409156

Not very encouraging news from Spain's antibody tests. Only 5% of the population estimated to have antibodies. 11% in Madrid.

Doesn’t this imply a very high death rate? 

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Doesn’t this imply a very high death rate? 

Something around 1.1 to 1.2% I think at an estimate (from those infected).

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Doesn’t this imply a very high death rate? 

30,000 deaths would suggest a mortality rate of 1.28%. 

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30,000 deaths would suggest a mortality rate of 1.28%. 

Not good at all.

In other news, anyone interested in the contact tracing challenge ahead should watch this. 

Seen 'The Country That Beat the Virus'? Watch it here on All 4:

https://www.channel4.com/programmes/the-country-that-beat-the-virus?cntsrc=social_share_ios_the_country_that_beat_the_virus

 

It will be difficult and not very British, but it could be our only hope.

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Interesting comments from Ryan at the WHO:

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A return to austerity after this is over? Not necessarily according to the Bank of England.

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-05-13/governor-of-bank-of-england-andrew-bailey-robert-peston/

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Not sure if mentioned but a study in France suggests the most likely figure for the number of people in France who have been infected is 4.4% (start of the paragraph below shows it is not based on antibody data)

'France has been heavily affected by the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and went into lockdown on the 17 March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find 3.6% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.7% die, ranging from 0.001% in those <20 years of age (ya) to 10.1% in those >80ya. Across all ages, men are more likely to be hospitalized, enter intensive care, and die than women. The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 2.90 to 0.67 (77% reduction). By 11 May 2020, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project 2.8 million (range: 1.8–4.7) people, or 4.4% (range: 2.8–7.2) of the population, will have been infected. Population immunity appears insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown.'

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/12/science.abc3517

Not sure if mentioned but a study in France suggests the most likely figure for the number of people in France who have been infected is 4.4% (start of the paragraph below shows it is not based on antibody data)

'France has been heavily affected by the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and went into lockdown on the 17 March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find 3.6% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.7% die, ranging from 0.001% in those <20 years of age (ya) to 10.1% in those >80ya. Across all ages, men are more likely to be hospitalized, enter intensive care, and die than women. The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 2.90 to 0.67 (77% reduction). By 11 May 2020, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project 2.8 million (range: 1.8–4.7) people, or 4.4% (range: 2.8–7.2) of the population, will have been infected. Population immunity appears insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown.'

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/12/science.abc3517

This, plus similar findings from Spain, suggests that there really has not been huge asymptomatic infection. It is bad news. It makes it clear that herd immunity is a catastrophic approach. SK, NZ are the countries to emulate.

Meanwhile, we are governed by idiots with blood on their hands. I am very fearful for where we are heading.

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Interesting comments from Ryan at the WHO:

Ryan said there was lots of "magical thinking" surrounding countries opening back up. He added that there was a "long, long way to go" on the path to returning to normal.

It's astonishingly difficult to detect any inflexion in the case graph curves when lockdown was introduced - for any country.
That seems to suggest gradual easing is unlikely to make much difference either.

Well actually it suggests the virus is doing a normal bell curve but the released figures are being constantly manipulated for political reasons to justify the lockdown and scare people into not just supporting it but clamouring for it to remain.

Too many things don't stack up like why the virus mainly attacks power centres in the west, like the heart of the EU, the UK and specifically New York - but leaves other parts of the world with similar population density and haphazard health services largely untouched.

All that's different is the way things are being monitored and deaths assigned to cv-19 whether that was tested and proven as the cause or not.
By the end of the year it will be clear enough that there has been a disastrous if not deliberate over reaction.
A totally unnecessary mortal wound caused by media induced mass hysteria.

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This, plus similar findings from Spain, suggests that there really has not been huge asymptomatic infection. It is bad news. It makes it clear that herd immunity is a catastrophic approach. SK, NZ are the countries to emulate.

Meanwhile, we are governed by idiots with blood on their hands. I am very fearful for where we are heading.

We need to launch an effective mass testing and contract tracing strategy fast. One that is bold, and one that works.

The silence is deafening in relation to this. 

Hopefully the snippets we are hearing actually have substance and I am just being impatient. I’m worried this is another disaster waiting to happen. 

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It's astonishingly difficult to detect any inflexion in the case graph curves when lockdown was introduced - for any country.
That seems to suggest gradual easing is unlikely to make much difference either.

Well actually it suggests the virus is doing a normal bell curve but the released figures are being constantly manipulated for political reasons to justify the lockdown and scare people into not just supporting it but clamouring for it to remain.

Too many things don't stack up like why the virus mainly attacks power centres in the west, like the heart of the EU, the UK and specifically New York - but leaves other parts of the world with similar population density and haphazard health services largely untouched.

All that's different is the way things are being monitored and deaths assigned to cv-19 whether that was tested and proven as the cause or not.
By the end of the year it will be clear enough that there has been a disastrous if not deliberate over reaction.
A totally unnecessary mortal wound caused by media induced mass hysteria.

That's just total nonsense from start to finish. Every line.

Asian countries have avoided it because they took the right measures.

Meanwhile, Ecuador, Brazil, and Mexico are in deep trouble.

The idea that this is about power centres in the west? Did you see this tonight?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOcahxnQsak

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Not seen that many vox-pops during the last few months but thought this chap was quite funny

 

Remember Owen Filer, the 100-year-old that no-one could quite believe?@robosborneitv caught back up with Owen in the midst of this global pandemic to reflect on his life - and hear his thoughts about this time we are all living through https://t.co/sVkQ7NIw2K pic.twitter.com/6z1vquKhIh

— ITV Wales News (@ITVWales) May 12, 2020

A really interesting documentary on Channel 4 right now about the contact tracing in South Korea.

Absolutely fascinating the measures they are taking, including looking at CCTV in restaurants and credit card transactions. Very few significant lockdown measures. 

I can’t see the UK ever following a model like that, but it clearly works. 

Worth a watch on 4OD. 

https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2020/may/13/the-country-that-beat-the-virus-review-breathtaking-damning-and-humiliating

 

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