Unfortunately, I think you  are spot on, Brian.

My sister reports  people wandering around in Winchester, many not even putting up a pretence of Social Distancing. There are mountain ranges of evidence that Public Transport is not maintaining social distancing and mask use  on Public Transport and shops is sporadic.

Either we  are missing something here (higher UV pegging things back, or the thing not as virulent as  first thought)  or we are heading for one humdinger of a spike in 3 weeks time.

My personal view is that in hindsight we will look back on the VE Day celebrations as when the rot set in.

 

Yup, it's one or the other.

---

Not sure Michael then goes on to say this,,, first  time ever head thanked me

I met with senior leaders yesterday and we are developing a draft plan for a phased return on 1^st June.  Clearly, many of you will be required to work with a group of children who are not from your current year group and senior leaders will ensure that there are clear plans for you to follow and that you will be well supported in this.  I aim to share the draft plan with you on Friday.  I must reiterate that it is only a draft plan and subject to change with further guidance likely to influence any plan and I must also reiterate that a phased reopening of schools on 1^st June is CONDITIONAL at this stage and could well be delayed or redesigned. 

I know that you are feeling anxious and confused at the moment and this is completely understandable with so much in the media fuelling our anxieties.  But I want to remind you that for weeks now you have been applauded and thanked by the Nation for your selflessness and courage as you have put yourselves at risk by taking care of the children of NHS staff during a time when the disease was at its peak and the likelihood of infection at its height.  You have continued to play your part and come in to school on your day knowing that the vast majority of people were staying safe at home.  Our school has offered an outstanding provision for online learning and our safeguarding has been a model of good practice throughout with daily communications with social care and support for families who have been at breaking point.  I know that you will continue to adapt as we begin to move out of lockdown and with all my heart, I thank you for being such a fabulous team.

 

I’m curious as to how “homeschooling” (although that’s not really what it is) will be organised if all teaching staff are working full time in the classroom. What will be the answer to education provision for those at home? It is okay now as many teachers are also working from home. 

On the other issue Caz is right that teachers need to engage and have a voice at the planning stage.

 

Yes, it's just considering general risk of death by age and gender as far as I can tell. Also he's careful to point out it's not considering other factors like other long term consequences of catching the disease.

I thought the distinction between IFR and PFR was useful, and is often missed in news items as the article points out:

 

If the article is correct, it would confirm that there is virtually no mortality risk to younger children in sending them back to school. From the article "For under 15s, the possibility of COVID added a negligible fatal risk." However, I would assume there would be increased risk of mortality among older people (teachers, parents and the wider community) if open schools contribute to the general spread.

Devil's advocate: It all suggests nasty questions about how long younger people's lives should be put on hold to save their elders. It could be argued the young are currently sacrificing their liberty for the old - so at what point should it be reversed in the interests of fairness? Should older people accept confinement at some point in order to let younger people live more normally?

I can only speak for myself but I have three generations to consider and probably four in a few years time. I am heart broken for my grandson who is 18 in two weeks time. I absolutely think the young have sacrificed enough for me already and am happy to do anything that gives them their freedom. So long as they and their parents are safe I can do what I need to keep myself safe with very little effort or loss to my quality of life, especially compared to theirs.

---

 

I'm thinking of doing my usual £200 insurance bet on Trump to win while he is still evens. He wins - I get £200 compensation to get pissed. He loses - more than worth losing £200 to be so happy! Works every time so far. 

He is going to win

 

#NEW @CNN Key Battleground State* Poll:

Trump 52%
Biden 45%

(*AZ, CO, FL, GA, ME, MI, MN, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI):

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) May 13, 2020

---

HMG has, via Lloyd’s, just lent me £25k at 2.5% APR with nothing to repay for 12 months. I would be crazy not to take advantage of this 

 

I took 40k

 

---

 

He is going to win

Just watching PM's QT. Your mate Boris still doesn't look or sound very well IMHO. I think you mentioned something about it earlier today. 

---

Not sure Michael then goes on to say this,,, first  time ever head thanked me

I met with senior leaders yesterday and we are developing a draft plan for a phased return on 1^st June.  Clearly, many of you will be required to work with a group of children who are not from your current year group and senior leaders will ensure that there are clear plans for you to follow and that you will be well supported in this.  I aim to share the draft plan with you on Friday.  I must reiterate that it is only a draft plan and subject to change with further guidance likely to influence any plan and I must also reiterate that a phased reopening of schools on 1^st June is CONDITIONAL at this stage and could well be delayed or redesigned. 

I know that you are feeling anxious and confused at the moment and this is completely understandable with so much in the media fuelling our anxieties.  But I want to remind you that for weeks now you have been applauded and thanked by the Nation for your selflessness and courage as you have put yourselves at risk by taking care of the children of NHS staff during a time when the disease was at its peak and the likelihood of infection at its height.  You have continued to play your part and come in to school on your day knowing that the vast majority of people were staying safe at home.  Our school has offered an outstanding provision for online learning and our safeguarding has been a model of good practice throughout with daily communications with social care and support for families who have been at breaking point.  I know that you will continue to adapt as we begin to move out of lockdown and with all my heart, I thank you for being such a fabulous team.

 

Thanks for the updates, it’s good to hear from other parts of the country. 

I seriously doubt if the schools up here will go back until August and even then only on a partial basis with some form of blended learning. An unprecedented situation for a modern world will need some form of unprecedented response. What, how and when are all massive questions with no clear answers, yet the questions must be asked and asked now.

---

 

 

Unfortunately, I think you  are spot on, Brian.

My sister reports  people wandering around in Winchester, many not even putting up a pretence of Social Distancing. There are mountain ranges of evidence that Public Transport is not maintaining social distancing and mask use  on Public Transport and shops is sporadic.

Either we  are missing something here (higher UV pegging things back, or the thing not as virulent as  first thought)  or we are heading for one humdinger of a spike in 3 weeks time.

My personal view is that in hindsight we will look back on the VE Day celebrations as when the rot set in.

 

 

 

 

Perhaps the heatwave next week will kill it off?

Its possible it is mutating to something weaker, but we would have heard something 

Though cases in Alabama and other southern US states with high UV and humidity have spiked this week, so perhaps the weather is not going to help.

But Trumps rating are still sky high, so perhaps the plebs really don't care about dying, as long as they can go shopping

---

 

Just watching PM's QT. Your mate Boris still doesn't look or sound very well IMHO. I think you mentioned something about it earlier today. 

He doesn't look with it, and without his audience of cheering cretins behind him, his blustering doesn't work

He said on Monday that Covid was in the water supply, and later had to correct himself. Yet it didn't get any media coverage. Imagine if Diane Abbott had said it. 

It would have been on the front page of all the papers

 

---

None proof pics of the day its all hot air and disappointing 

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-05-13/coronavirus-lockdown-eases-public-transport-crowds-tubes-trains-buses-tfl/

Meaningless, unless we have pics taken at exactly the same time last week, to provide comparison.  

Remember: the media create stories.  The truth is not an issue.   Tomorrow never lies.

---

Yes Paul and last part very tricky to answer as someone who is  between both young and old thing is things very different today. A different world I’ve seen that, for myself most young humans just can’t wait for anything and want it yesterday and I do understand that point  what I have not seen is the suffering of the old like my father in WW2 and what they did for us all as I think about that quite a bit So I really can’t answer what’s fair or not as I can see both sides

 

 

Yes, it's just considering general risk of death by age and gender as far as I can tell. Also he's careful to point out it's not considering other factors like other long term consequences of catching the disease.

I thought the distinction between IFR and PFR was useful, and is often missed in news items as the article points out:

 

 

Devil's advocate: It all suggests nasty questions about how long younger people's lives should be put on hold to save their elders. It could be argued the young are currently sacrificing their liberty for the old - so at what point should it be reversed in the interests of fairness? Should older people accept confinement at some point in order to let younger people live more normally?

Turned to the dark side this afternoon and went for a short bike ride... lovely day here.

My impression is that the restrictions are still mainly holding although their are definitely cases of people interpreting things a bit casually. Lots of people out walking and generally being pretty good. Very few (if any) groups of more than 5 people. I would say traffic still around 50% of usual levels.

Slight signs of the Ontario consensus cracking

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-coronavirus-update-may-12-1.5565770

As I suspected, Ford wants to give people something to look forward to before the Victoria Day weekend and is preparing to announce something on Thursday, although the medics seem less sure. Luckily(!) this has been an atrocious spring weather wise and even the coming weekend looks cool and wet so the temptation for mass barbecues and so on may be lower.

---

Meaningless, unless we have pics taken at exactly the same time last week, to provide comparison.  

Remember: the media create stories.  The truth is not an issue.   Tomorrow never lies.

What is the truth then?

---

One hope is that the economic damage itself will act as a natural limiter on social interaction and keep R down. That's the ideal scenario, where R is held down without direct intervention.

 

---

Big news breaking tonight. PHE have approved an antibodies test

 

 

 

BREAKING: A coronavirus antibody test kit has been approved by Public Health England (PHE)

Via @Telegraph pic.twitter.com/0hSSNjq7l0

— Politics For All (@PoliticsForAlI) May 13, 2020

A really interesting documentary on Channel 4 right now about the contact tracing in South Korea.

Absolutely fascinating the measures they are taking, including looking at CCTV in restaurants and credit card transactions. Very few significant lockdown measures. 

I can’t see the UK ever following a model like that, but it clearly works. 

Worth a watch on 4OD. 

---

​

 Exclusive: First coronavirus antibody test given approval by Public Health England

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/13/exclusive-first-coronavirus-antibody-test-given-approval-public/

​

Interesting piece in UnHerd here:

https://unherd.com/2020/05/britain-might-end-up-following-the-swedes-lead/

I was surprised by these opinion poll outcomes:

"...

As for the voters, polls show that the British public has fully signed up to lockdown life. A survey released at the weekend showed that 73% of Brits think protecting lives should take precedence over the economy, compared to just 49% of Germans and 44% of Swedes. Polling since Sunday‘s announcement suggests that voters are split almost exactly evenly on whether or not even those tiny relaxations were too much, too soon. On that evidence, it looks like the Prime Minister went about as far as he could go.

..."

I am with those who now think the economy should be our primary concern.

---

https://twitter.com/_MiguelHernan/status/1260625031119409156

Not very encouraging news from Spain's antibody tests. Only 5% of the population estimated to have antibodies. 11% in Madrid.

https://twitter.com/_MiguelHernan/status/1260625031119409156

Not very encouraging news from Spain's antibody tests. Only 5% of the population estimated to have antibodies. 11% in Madrid.

Click for full size.

---