Using GFS values so usual caveats apply but I think they demonstrate pretty well what degree of impact of the unusually chilly weather will have on the CET for a few days starting this Sunday, though the actual CET probably won't be quite as low based on past experience (cold bias).

There's a climb through to Saturday 9th, peaking at 11.0°C (probably underestimated), which is about 0.3°C above average.

Then comes the drop. 1.4°C is lost in the space of four days, taking the CET about 1.2°C below average.

This particular run (00z) features further chilly nights right out to 16th with only 'mild' days in between (mid-teens tops), which lowers the CET estimate slightly further, to 9.4°C, about 1.5°C below average. Again, likely too low - but you get the idea: the weather's going to have a fair bit of work to do if the CET is to recover to average, let alone above.

...and yet, I'd not be surprised to see it do that. There's a lot pointing toward ridges located in warm positions relative to the UK by the time we reach the final third of the month.

Met Office Hadley          10.4c.       Anomaly      0.6c. Provisional to 4th.

Metcheck                       9.654c      Anomaly      -1.75c

Netweather                    10.71c      Anomaly      -0.6c

Peasedown St John      10.1c       Anomaly       -1.66c         

Thanks everyone for your comments. Yes I am back and sorry for being AWOL for so long. The last few weeks have caused a bit of turmoil and so I'm afraid this site went to the bottom of my priorities. I have managed to shave 50 years off my age in the process so feeling much better now!

Here are the May predictions

TABLE

Here is the current May CET tracker.

After a slightly cooler than average day tomorrow we have three warm days followed by a cold snap. Temperatures likely to return to slightly above average by mid-month.

My calculations are already trending well below the Hadley provisional figures this month.

By the 19th I estimate the CET will be bang in line with the 1981-2010 mean.

I think I am now fully up to date with everything.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Using GFS values so usual caveats apply but I think they demonstrate pretty well what degree of impact of the unusually chilly weather will have on the CET for a few days starting this Sunday, though the actual CET probably won't be quite as low based on past experience (cold bias).

There's a climb through to Saturday 9th, peaking at 11.0°C (probably underestimated), which is about 0.3°C above average.

Then comes the drop. 1.4°C is lost in the space of four days, taking the CET about 1.2°C below average.

This particular run (00z) features further chilly nights right out to 16th with only 'mild' days in between (mid-teens tops), which lowers the CET estimate slightly further, to 9.4°C, about 1.5°C below average. Again, likely too low - but you get the idea: the weather's going to have a fair bit of work to do if the CET is to recover to average, let alone above.

Hmmmm….

Thanks everyone for your comments. Yes I am back and sorry for being AWOL for so long. The last few weeks have caused a bit of turmoil and so I'm afraid this site went to the bottom of my priorities. I have managed to shave 50 years off my age in the process so feeling much better now!

Here are the May predictions

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

TABLE

Here is the current May CET tracker.

After a slightly cooler than average day tomorrow we have three warm days followed by a cold snap. Temperatures likely to return to slightly above average by mid-month.

My calculations are already trending well below the Hadley provisional figures this month.

By the 19th I estimate the CET will be bang in line with the 1981-2010 mean.

I think I am now fully up to date with everything.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Chart 1

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Chart 2

Great  to see you back Simon - Hope you're OK.

Met Office Hadley          10.4c        Anomaly      o.5c. Provisional to 5th.

Metcheck                       9.43c        Anomaly      -1.98c

Netweather                    10.56c      Anomaly      -0.75c

Peasedown St John     9.86c        Anomaly       -1.94c.   

Hmmmm….

Today's runs should give you more hope - a warmer look for later next week onward. that could at least neutralise the CET after the dive down, maybe even more than that. A developing suspicion that this might occur is why I said in the April thread on Monday that I wasn't feeling very confident in my near-average CET estimate. As GW's analysis shows!

Metcheck            10.4c        Anomaly        0.4c Provisional to 6th

Metcheck             9.57c        Anomaly        -1.83c

Netweather         10.59c       Anomaly        -0.72c

Peasedown St John  10.07c   Anomaly     -1.69c    

Thanks everyone for your comments. Yes I am back and sorry for being AWOL for so long. The last few weeks have caused a bit of turmoil and so I'm afraid this site went to the bottom of my priorities. I have managed to shave 50 years off my age in the process so feeling much better now!

Here are the May predictions

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TABLE

Looks like I'm well off the mark.

Can't see your prediction on there GW- unless your new youth has brought you an alter ego also!

 

Looks like I'm well off the mark.

Can't see your prediction on there GW- unless your new youth has brought you an alter ego also!

I didn’t see GW’s entry for last month either!

Met Office Hadley            10.8c.        Anomaly       0.6c

Metcheck                         10.37c       Anomaly       -1.04c

Netweather                      11.04c       Anomaly       -0.27c

Peasedown st John       10.6c         Anomaly        -1.16c.   

Met Office Hadley           11.4c.        Anomaly       1.2c. Provisional to 8th 

Metcheck                        11.02c       Anomaly        -0.31c

Netweather                     11.68c       Anomaly        0.38c

Peasedown St John       11.1c        Anomaly        -0.66c.    

Out of interest, plugged in raw numbers from the GFS 06z and 12z runs.

Both drop the CET estimate to about 9.9°C as of 17th, approx. 1°C below average.

Then they diverge - a little at first, then massively!

06z has the estimate climbing to the 11s °C by 22nd and all the way to the low 12s °C as of 26th, over half a °C above average. A bit of a heatwave going on - what a roller-coaster ride that would make for us!

12z has it changing very little and actually falling overall, to about 9.7°C as of 26th. That's over 1.5°C below average! Chilly nights are the biggest part of that - the average across 11th-26th is only in the mid-3s°C!

So, no clear signals there .

ECM 12z looks more likely to take the GFS 06z route than 12z. The 00z was similar, though not quite as 'poised for warmth'. Yet yesterday, that model was putting out runs with a chilly northeast flow as of the 10th day. It's a modelling muddle!

Met Office Hadley           11.9c          Anomaly        1.7c Provisional to 9th

Metcheck                        11.59c        Anomaly        0.18c

Netweather                     12.25c        Anomaly        0.96c

Peasedown St John       11.3c         Anomaly        -0,46.  

Met Office Hadley           11.8c.       Anomaly        1.5c   Provisional to 10th.

Metcheck                        11.10c      Anomaly        -0.30c

Netweather                     12.07c      Anomaly         0.79c

Peasedown St John       11.2c        Anomaly        -0.56c. 

Met Office Hadley           11.4c        Anomaly         0.9c. Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                        10.65c      Anomaly         -0.75c

Netweather                     11.62c      Anomaly         0.33c

Peasedown St John      11.3c         Anomaly        -0.46c.           

I know that Arty only reports the provisional mean CETs every day on these threads (I wouldn't expect him to do otherwise) but by studying the other Hadley pages more closely, I have noticed that the provisional maximum CET for this month up until 11 May 2020 was 16.6°C which is 1.8°C warmer than the 1961-90 average and yet, the provisional minimum CET for this month up until 11 May 2020 was 5.6°C which is 0.5°C colder than the 1961-90 average.

I'm not sure how usual or unusual it is for there to be such a big discrepency in the temperature anomalies between the minimum and maximum temperatures, but this shows just how big the average diurnal temperature ranges have been just recent as a result of high pressure being in charge for so much of the time.

That is also replicated to a certain extent here in Edinburgh where the mean minimum temperature at Edinburgh Gogarbank up until today was 4.0°C which is a massive 2.5°C colder than the 1981-2010 average for that particular station, whilst the mean maximum temperature there up until today was 15.6°C which is actually 1.0°C warmer than the 1981-2010 average for that same station.

Balancing that out, the overall mean temperature for this month at Edinburgh Gogarbank up until today was 9.8°C, which is 0.7°C colder than the 1981-2010 average for that particular station.