Chilly first week in April

Jetstream currently to the N of UK, but bending round to give the N Sea a northerly blast on Sun 29th, easing off but then settling into a NW-ly flow aimed at S Norway from Wed 1st through to Thu 9th before breaking up into loops

GFS as yesterday develops twin HP centres and by Sun 29th the Euro centre has faded but 1050mb is in place S of Iceland with NE-lies for UK. HP in that location sticks around but weakens to be close to Scotland 1030mb Sun 5th and fup till then the wind is generally N-ly but less strong later on. Finally the HP moves across us to Denmark 1040mb Sat 11th Apr and S-ly winds are back.

ECM similar but around Sun 5th it is still holding the HP out in the Atlantic so N-lies are still persisting 

In both cases the second bout of N-ly winds suggested yesterday for later on has gone away, but the first blast lasts longer but weaker

GEFS again predictable, big dip Sun 29th (~10c below norm), recovering more slowly than forecast yesterday, mean of runs back to norm by Tue 7th but op & control still cold. Bits and pieces of rain from Fri 3rd in some runs but dry until then.

GFS is continuing its backtrack to a short cold spell followed by a significant warm up.

Unfortunately it is a bit out on its own at the moment.

 

Unfortunately it is a bit out on its own at the moment.

Trend setter?? 🙏🙏🙏

I hope so. The prospect of lots of time in the garden is very appealing.

 

I hope so. The prospect of lots of time in the garden is very appealing.

Yes, I noticed the GFS switch round on last night's 18z.  Call me old-fashioned but once the calendar flips over to April I lose my enthusiasm for cold weather: it just becomes an irritating obstacle on the road to warmer, decent weather.

 

I hope so. The prospect of lots of time in the garden is very appealing.

Unfortunately there hasn't been a single day warm enough to spend any time in the garden this year and there is zero sign of that changing in the reliable time period. Latest GFS was appalling throughout the entirety of the next week with Friday 3rd April the first day to show anything acceptable by which time that would be almost a fortnight with barely any sunshine at all 

I see nothing remotely warm and nothing cold enough to be of interest just cloudy, chilly feeling, depressing conditions with the same dire temperatures of 6-12C we seem to have been suffering for an eternity.

Following the first extended winter in recorded history with no lying snow I note that tomorrow will mark exactly six months since I last recorded 15C. There's just no variety or extremes any more 

No model as keen with a direct Northerly hit now.

Can’t remember the last time we had a direct hit from the North.

Always something goes wrong with the modelling and they miss.

Agreed! I don't know the last time the whole of the UK had a direct northerly blasting through the whole country - a day or so back many were going for the -10c isothem @ 850hpa to sweep across the whole of the UK with the far north of Scotland going down to -12 or -13c @ 850hpa which would have mean daytime maxes of 0c. Same old failure.  

 

Unfortunately there hasn't been a single day warm enough to spend any time in the garden this year and there is zero sign of that changing in the reliable time period. Latest GFS was appalling throughout the entirety of the next week with Friday 3rd April the first day to show anything acceptable by which time that would be almost a fortnight with barely any sunshine at all 

I see nothing remotely warm and nothing cold enough to be of interest just cloudy, chilly feeling, depressing conditions with the same dire temperatures of 6-12C we seem to have been suffering for an eternity.

Following the first extended winter in recorded history with no lying snow I note that tomorrow will mark exactly six months since I last recorded 15C. There's just no variety or extremes any more 

 

This is turning into the spring 2020 rant thread! - Didn't parts of NE Scotland experiences temperatures of +17c sometime in winter due to the fohn effect!?

HP to S of Iceland 1050mb bringing in strong NE-lies by Sunday, as forecast, but drifting S-wards with ridge to Germany cutting off the wrorst of the N-ly flow (still there, but weaker) by Wed 1st. But by Fri 3rd LP off Norway 970mb brings Arctic air S-wards, mainly affecting Scotland (this feature was in earlier forecasts but has been resurrected today).It doesn't last and by Tue 7th we have long-fetch S-lies for all, and indeed winds from that general direction through to Sun 11th

ECM has a less strong but more widespread N'ly around the 3rd, and then moves on more quickly to the mild S-lies bringing them up by by Sun 5th

GEFS v cold Mon 30th, most runs staying below average to Sun 5th, then (unlike yesterday) the majority go for mild weather through to Sat 11th (less marked in Scotland). Some sporadic rainfall appearing after the 5th (more marked in Scotland)

Noticeably milder for UK in week 2 on this model, and still dry in the S  http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

Snow cover well in retreat over W Europe https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif One of the volunteers in the respite home where we're staying was marvelling at 14C in his home town in Lithuania- but it's forecast to drop overnight on Sat to 4C!

Superb set up , imagine this in January 

Superb set up , imagine this in January 

Remember that saying, 'as the days grow longer the cold grows deeper'? I didn't think it applied to April....

There continues to be a risk of snow showers on Sunday night / early Monday for parts of the extreme SE (Kent).

There continues to be a risk of snow showers on Sunday night / early Monday for parts of the extreme SE (Kent).

 

WRF shows quite a thick blanket of cloud spilling west and quite widespread flurries on Sunday morning. It even predicts a slight coating in places, but that seems doubtful. What seems clear is that it's likely to be a raw, unpleasant day with a strong NE wind, overcast skies and possibly spits and spots of rain/sleet/snow.

 

WRF shows quite a thick blanket of cloud spilling west and quite widespread flurries on Sunday morning. It even predicts a slight coating in places, but that seems doubtful. What seems clear is that it's likely to be a raw, unpleasant day with a strong NE wind, overcast skies and possibly spits and spots of rain/sleet/snow.

I agree. Sunday daytime seems unlikely.

The deepest core of cold associated with -9 and -10 uppers moves across the far SE overnight. There is a 12 hour window of dusting potential IMO between 21.00hrs Sunday ans 09:00hrs Monday.