Fine margins indeed and looks better than the rest, but still goes pretty poor towards the end.

Longer term, the BCC long range model is setting up deep troughing for July, while CFS V2 is cool, but relatively dry in the north but more unsettled in the south.

The BCC is a big concern though because if that is correct or even near the mark, July will be pretty dreadful.

”July will be pretty dreadful”

Is that a forecast?

I only ask because, so far, your summer forecasts have proved wrong.

So you might like to clarify.

 

 

”July will be pretty dreadful”

 

Is that a forecast?

 

I only ask because, so far, your summer forecasts have proved wrong.

 

So you might like to clarify.

I'm commenting on models in here. If the BCC model verifies for July, it will be pretty dreadful. If it doesn't verify, it may not be.

If I was going to make a call for July I'd probably also go unsettled but very warm as well. So much hot air near by at the moment. Certainly no write off.

ECM Para keeps the heat over the weekend and also pushes in the Azores late on. Mean is similar. Good stuff from the ECM tonight.

Jetstream in process of switching from W-ly S of the UK to SW-ly W of the UK which should help promote the forecast warmth in the SE. However by Sat 27th a fresh pulse enfolds the UK in a loop  to Tue 30th which disperses fairly quickly in favour of a NW-ly flow lasting to Sun 5th before breaking up into meanders again

GFS shows LP out in Atlantic bringing up warm SW-ly (though LP is too close to NW to give fine weather there) filling by Fri 26th but new LP W of Ireland taking track across Scotland to Norway around Mon 29th. Week ridge of HP builds from the S for the rest of that week before shallow LP runs across  the UK NW to SE (centered over England Sun 5th) and finally another weak ridge of HP forming behind it.

GEFS for the S shows very warm Tue 23rd - Sat 27th, then dipping below norm for a couple of days before the mean of runs resumes average, but well scattered, and op & control suggest another warm spell Wed 1st - Sat 4th. Some rain about from Sat 27th, a bit more than yesterday but still not much and well scattered. Scotland temp pattern similar but a lot of rain esp in the Borders Sat 27th, and not exactly dry after that. N England intermediate as usual.

ECM is similar to GFS at first but weak trough of LP from the S on Fri 26th (possibly thundery?) before the Atlantic takes over with LP well N of Scotland Mon 29th and persisting there with W-lies across the UK, HP to the S not ridging as in GFS