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Offline Whether Idle  
#1 Posted : 29 February 2020 12:05:18(UTC)
Whether Idle

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Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC)
Posts: 8,477
Man
Location: Dover

I’m sure all CETers are polishing their predictions and sending them by PM to Global Warming. Thought I’d start this thread as an aide memoire to anyone who might have forgotten 

Edited by moderator 29 April 2020 13:54:29(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

The Johnson Government had a choice on whether to tackle the virus hard- or let it spread- they've shown they care more for their money than they do for the health and the safety of the British People.

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Offline ARTzeman  
#2 Posted : 29 February 2020 15:23:19(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,010
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Hope March is not all sixes and sevens. Or a tale of three sections. Anyway, Prediction shall be PM'nd .

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Global Warming  
#3 Posted : 29 February 2020 22:45:48(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,247

This thread is for all comments, discussion and analysis of temperatures in the UK during March, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own back yard.  

Historic CET summary for March 

1971-2000 6.3C (30 years) 

1981-2010 6.3C (30 years) 

2000-2019 6.6C (last 20 years)

The temperature in March has varied significantly in recent years. We have had 3 cold years, 2013, 2016 and 2018 (with just 2.7C in 2013). All three were under 6C. But 2012, 2017 and 2019 were all very warm. 2017 saw 8.7C.

Here is a chart of the March CET for all years since 1961:

Direct link to larger version of the chart 

CHART

Current model output

GFS 850's https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=

GFS T2m https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=12&lid=ENS&bw= 

ECM T2m http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png

Contingency planners - Met Office

Temperature Summary - above average

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Caz  
#4 Posted : 01 March 2020 09:41:03(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 20,203
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Better bump this up!  Could a mod please sticky it?  Thank you. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#5 Posted : 01 March 2020 10:05:46(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,065
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

Better bump this up!  Could a mod please sticky it?  Thank you. 

Just stickied it Caz.

Gavin S.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet asl.

Offline Caz  
#6 Posted : 01 March 2020 12:27:12(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 20,203
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger Go to Quoted Post

 

Just stickied it Caz.

 Thanks HT!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline ARTzeman  
#7 Posted : 02 March 2020 10:57:26(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,010
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley           5.3c.       Anomaly       0.7c.  Provisional to 1st.

Metcheck                        4.11c      Anomaly       -2.05c

Netweather                     5.63c      Anomaly       -0.68c

Peasedown St John       5.3c.       Anomaly       -0.97c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline springsunshine  
#8 Posted : 02 March 2020 20:59:02(UTC)
springsunshine

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC)
Posts: 1,409
Location: Bournemouth

It will be sods law if March turned out to be the coldest month of the `winter`

Offline Global Warming  
#9 Posted : 02 March 2020 22:03:27(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,247

Here are the March predictions and the first look at the March CET tracker

TABLE

CHART1

CHART2

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline Caz  
#10 Posted : 03 March 2020 06:05:50(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 20,203
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

  Thanks GW!  

There’s quite a group around the 7c mark!

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline ARTzeman  
#11 Posted : 03 March 2020 11:16:37(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,010
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         5.0c.       Anomaly       0.4c. Provisional to 2nd.

Metcheck                      4.09c      Anomaly       -2.07c

Netweather                   4.97c      Anomaly       -1.34c

Peasedown St John     5.3c        Anomaly        -0.97c.

 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline ARTzeman  
#12 Posted : 04 March 2020 10:48:45(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,010
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        5.1c.       Anomaly        0.6c. Provisional to 3rd.

Metcheck                     4.14c      Anomaly        -2.02c

Netweather                  4.97c      Anomaly        1.34c

Peasedown St John     5.4c       Anomaly         0.87c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Online Saint Snow  
#13 Posted : 04 March 2020 12:06:12(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 45,949
Man
Location: St Helens

I really need a cold spell this month 

"Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline ARTzeman  
#14 Posted : 05 March 2020 10:48:19(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,010
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         4.9c.      Anomaly        0.3c. Provisional to 4th.

Metcheck                      4.17c     Anomaly        -1.99c

Netweather                   4.88c     Anomaly        -1.43c

Peasedown St John     5.3c       Anomaly        -0.97c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline ARTzeman  
#15 Posted : 06 March 2020 11:06:10(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,010
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley          4.8c.        Anomaly        0.1c. Provisional to 5th.

Metcheck                       3.98c       Anomaly        -2.18c

Netweather                    4.8c         Anomaly        -1.51c

Peasedown St John       5.3c        Anomaly         -0.97c.    

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Caz  
#16 Posted : 06 March 2020 20:27:28(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 20,203
Woman
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Met Office Hadley          4.8c.        Anomaly        0.1c. Provisional to 5th.

Metcheck                       3.98c       Anomaly        -2.18c

Netweather                    4.8c         Anomaly        -1.51c

Peasedown St John       5.3c        Anomaly         -0.97c.    

  Crikey!  If it carries on like this, we’ve all gone too high!

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.

Offline ARTzeman  
#17 Posted : 07 March 2020 10:57:22(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,010
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley           4.7c.        Anomaly         -0.1c. Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck                        4.15c       Anomaly         -2.01c

Netweather                     4.66c       Anomaly         -1.65c

Peasedown St John       5.4c         Anomaly          -1.65c.        

Prediction                       6.98c       Anomaly        -1.58c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline ARTzeman  
#18 Posted : 08 March 2020 10:48:08(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 27,010
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley           5.0c.       Anomaly        0.1c. Provisional to 7th.

Metcheck                        4.90c      Anomaly        -1.26c

Netweather                     5.17c      Anomaly        -1.14c

Peasedown St John        5.9c        Anomaly        -0.37c. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

Offline Global Warming  
#19 Posted : 08 March 2020 12:06:24(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,247

Here is the latest March CET tracker

CHART1

CHART2

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl
Offline GezM  
#20 Posted : 08 March 2020 16:16:17(UTC)
GezM

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 772
Man
United Kingdom

That's a very pleasant surprise for the 7C+ brigade! Based on recent GFS Ops runs I was wondering if we were going to get above 6C this month!?

I'm not convinced that the CET will pan out as mild the current estimates are showing. But perhaps any easterlies will be more like spring lambs than spring lions .....

Living in St Albans, Herts (90m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

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