Where have you heard 5.44 metres? Current forecast is 4.8-5.2 metres on EA website.

It was on BBC weather last night

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radar looking bad over wales now, Shrewsbury in the firing line too

 

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We've been lucky so far, but this morning there was a lot of local flooding, mostly due to run-off from fields.

But looking at a re-run of the rainfall radar over the past few hours, and a hell of a lot of rain has fallen on Wales (from top to bottom!). Flooding is only going to get worse in border towns, unfortunately.

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Where have you heard 5.44 metres? Current forecast is 4.8-5.2 metres on EA website.

On the current Severe Flood Warning for Shrewsbury on the gov.uk website the peak is estimated at 4.7 to 5.0m for later this afternoon.  A friend there has told me that Radio Shropshire is giving reports of roads in the flood-prone parts of the town being impassable because of the depth of floodwater.  Google traffic shows them quite well - the roads have no coloured traffic info when they should have some.

Edit: Gaugemap https://www.gaugemap.co.uk/#!Map/Summary/37/40 shows the current level (at Welsh Bridge) as 4.7m and rising.

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Current forecast Max for today in Shrewsbury is 4.7-5. Another peak coming tomorrow from last night/today's rainfall in Wales. Vyrnwy and Severn both rising rapidly in their upper reaches. 34.2mm at Lake Vyrnwy since 0000.The main rain is now clearing but that total is not far short of totals over the last few nights. There has been pretty much a month's worth of rainfall at Lake Vyrnwy over the last 3 days, coming on top of an already very wet month.

Current level high up on the Severn at Dolwen is higher than the previous flood peaks. Doesn't necessarily translate into higher levels downstream as tributaries might not be as high. However, it has rained heavily on them too and they are also rising sharply.

Level at Shrewsbury is showing signs of starting to level off, montford bridge not that far upstream has not risen much in quite a number of hours so it may not have that much further to go today, still waiting to see what happens tomorrow.

Flood peak for shrewsbury tomorrow is expected to be 5.2-5.5 metres. The flood warning for Ironbridge is now a severe one.

The amount of surface water on the roads around here is incredible. Both today and yesterday I have been on the minor roads between here and Bingley and the roads resemble fast flowing streams at times. Not seen anything like it before.

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From the EA re Ironbridge: I've not seen the explicit bit in bold in warnings before. The river is expected to overtop the temporary flood barriers.

River levels are forecast to rise at the Buildwas river gauge to between 6.7m to 7.0m overnight Tuesday 25/02/20 into Wednesday. We expect river levels to remain high over the rest of the week. We are closely monitoring the situation. Our incident response staff are liaising with emergency services regarding the temporary flood barriers at Ironbridge. Please move possessions and valuables to safety and have a bag ready with vital items like medicines and insurance documents.

 

 

Cranborne Chase  and the Dorset Downs seem to have the worst of the groundwater flooding

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Severn continuing to inch up in Shrewsbury. Now at 5.05metres - only 5cm higher than 12 hours ago but much of that rise has been in the last few hours. Levels have now stabilised upstream at Cae Howel and just starting to at Montford perhaps so maybe there is another 10cm or so to go? EA latest estimate is 5.1-5.4 metres.

As of 8.00pm, GaugeMap https://www.gaugemap.co.uk/#!Map/Summary/37/40 is showing 5.10m at Welsh Bridge in Shrewsbury.  The EA flood warning predicted a maximum height for this evening, so it looks as though (hopefully) that might be it this time.

I've just come back from Shrewsbury, and the flooding in parts of the town was the worst I've ever seen.

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Not looking good this weekend, especially on Saturday. I wouldn't be surprised if it get to be a named system at least by Met Eireann.

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Not looking good this weekend, especially on Saturday. I wouldn't be surprised if it get to be a named system at least by Met Eireann.

It is likely to be ‘named’ (for what it’s worth).

Severe gales S ROI into S Wales and the SW Saturday - some changes on track and intensity but GFS 0.25 HR has been impressive with these systems lately so I’d say another stormy weekend is on the way.

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Ironbridge's barriers have been breached. Water is coming under in one area, barriers have buckled and also moved backwards several feet. Apparently the current amount of water coming underneath can be pumped out but not a good sign. The level is now dropping but it will take a long time for the level to drop below the barrier level.

Have this to look forward to; near 60 mph southerly on Saturday morning for my location. The Autumn that keeps on giving for all the wrong reasons.

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 So it seems this weekend's low to affect the UK will be using the name "Jorge" assigned by the Spanish Met Office. 

While that will not help our cause when it comes to UK storm naming, it actually does make sense in a backwards kind of way. It's actually looking like a fairly typical Atlantic low for the UK and thus probably wouldn't warrant the Ellie name but it may bring weather-related impacts to Spain and France which are not as used to that kind of thing, so it seems the Met Office are "borrowing" the Jorge name while they are at it.

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Ironbridge's barriers have been breached. Water is coming under in one area, barriers have buckled and also moved backwards several feet. Apparently the current amount of water coming underneath can be pumped out but not a good sign. The level is now dropping but it will take a long time for the level to drop below the barrier level.

What's happened to Ian Brown (Shropshire)? Not barred I hope?

 

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Looks like a bit of a repeat perfomance this weekend - flood levels finally dropping in Shropshire, only for heavy rain to start up again, at least in mid-Wales, with another surge to come down the Severn through the weekend. Level looks like dropping enough beforehand for the flood plains to empty out and create some space but i imagine it will be another 4metre + job at the Welsh Bridge gauge.

For those interested in such things, you can see on this graph that the EA are releasing water out of Llyn Clywedog near the source of the Severn to try and create a bit of extra capacity to soak up this weekend's rainfall. Not sure how much effect it will have in the end but every little helps.

https://rloi.naturalresources.wales/ViewDetails?station=2054

 So it seems this weekend's low to affect the UK will be using the name "Jorge" assigned by the Spanish Met Office. 

While that will not help our cause when it comes to UK storm naming, it actually does make sense in a backwards kind of way. It's actually looking like a fairly typical Atlantic low for the UK and thus probably wouldn't warrant the Ellie name but it may bring weather-related impacts to Spain and France which are not as used to that kind of thing, so it seems the Met Office are "borrowing" the Jorge name while they are at it.

Having studied the most likely path of Storm Jorge, it would appear as though it's centre is likely to be over or just the north of Scotland. That is obviously quite a long way away from Spain and so, the only reason which I can think of as to why it is the Spanish Met service rather than either the UK Met Office or Met Eireann who have named this storm can only be down to the fact that there must be some sort of trailing weather front associated with that particular system, which is likely to cause enough of an impact in that part of world to warrant that particular storm being officially named.

That must obviously be quite a big impact as well since I would imagine that there would need to be the Spanish equivalent of an amber/orange warning in place somewhere in Spain as a result of that, in order to warrant that system actually being named by the Spanish Met service.

 

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So what is the record amount of named storms for the UK this time of year. At the moment seems to be every weekend and already quite a few this winter. Here we go again another weekend more wind and rain. 

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