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Euro4 model still going for widespread snow. Seemingly an upgrade to some parts.... however not much lying tho.Lets not forget that mondays snow event was forecast for hills only and that turned out wrong too.Could be some surprises tomorrow.
Have to see what the updated airport TAFs say but I have looked at Liverpool, Manchester and Birmingham last ones issued and none are going for snow just rain.
None of the other models are going for anything but rain away from Pennine areas, until you get up into Cumbria/N Yorks/S Scotland.
Perhaps some brief excitement across the tops of the northern Pennines and southern uplands.
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2020021212/18-779UK.GIF?12-12
What exactly is wrong with the EURO4 at the moment?
Perhaps some brief excitement across the tops of the northern Pennines and southern uplands.http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2020021212/18-779UK.GIF?12-12
Snow "20 twenties style." You can keep it.
Does anyone still use it?
Interestingly it got mondays event well modelled... others did not
The AROME did.
But the EURO4 precip parameter is clearly broken or not showing up correctly. It has snow in the channel with an ambient temp of 11C.
Well it forecast snow at several time points on both Monday and Tuesday here. Needless to say it remained bone dry.
The AROME did.But the EURO4 precip parameter is clearly broken or not showing up correctly. It has snow in the channel with an ambient temp of 11C.
Why not just look at the snowfall accumulation?
I find that is usually fairly accurate with Euro4. Been ok the last few days in terms of showery activity and was accurate in December when we had a small snowfall.
Nothing exciting really:
https://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/web/en/euro4-high/2020/02/12/basis12/ukuk/weas/20021310_1212.gif
Precipitation type charts should be banned, they are either faulty or show 1 snowflake:99 rain drops as snow. Factor in the GFS known bias for exaggerating PM blasts (normally GFS precip type charts are used) and you have hopelessly inaccurate charts most of the time.
If there was colder air embedded we might be in with a chance of some snow tonight, but it isn't to be. The temperature hasn't really been below 2c this week, as predicted. Will be 3c with rain here at 200m asl tonight.
Currently heavy wet sleet here in Sheffield, 200m asl mind so probably snow over 300-400m
This band of precipitation is now not far away from here to my SW according the latest rain radar maps.Currently, the temperature is hovering around freezing here in Edinburgh (an official air frost has even been recorded at Edinburgh Airport and the botanic gardens in Edinburgh, but not at Edinburgh Gogarbank) and we may well get a few flakes of snow on the leading edge of that as seen when you turn on the precipitation type on those radar maps.However, this then shows that the heavier stuff is only really giving a little bit of sleet or snow on the hills with mostly rain elsewhere.When I saw the most recent model runs trending the path of this system back northwards again, I had a feeling that this was going to happen because if there really was going to be a lot of snow on that system, it would probably have ended up staying to our south as what generally tends to happen in these situations.