KevBrads1
12 February 2020 09:48:42

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


Euro4 model still going for widespread snow. Seemingly an upgrade to some parts.... however not much lying tho.

Lets not forget that mondays snow event was forecast for hills only and that turned out wrong too.

Could be some surprises tomorrow.



 


Have to see what the updated airport TAFs say but I have looked at Liverpool, Manchester and Birmingham last ones issued and none are going for snow just rain.


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Saint Snow
12 February 2020 11:28:02

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


 


 


Have to see what the updated airport TAFs say but I have looked at Liverpool, Manchester and Birmingham last ones issued and none are going for snow just rain.



 


None of the other models are going for anything but rain away from Pennine areas, until you get up into Cumbria/N Yorks/S Scotland.


 


 



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Tim A
12 February 2020 15:48:48
Snow warning for the far N England/ Borders area . Nothing I can see including Euro4 is showing snow further south. Cold rain here and 2c forecast .

Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl


Gusty
12 February 2020 16:21:55

Perhaps some brief excitement across the tops of the northern Pennines and southern uplands.


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2020021212/18-779UK.GIF?12-12


 


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Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
12 February 2020 18:02:46


What exactly is wrong with the EURO4 at the moment?


 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Whether Idle
12 February 2020 18:44:36

Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Perhaps some brief excitement across the tops of the northern Pennines and southern uplands.


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2020021212/18-779UK.GIF?12-12


 



Snow "20 twenties style."  You can keep it.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Brian Gaze
12 February 2020 18:46:34

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



What exactly is wrong with the EURO4 at the moment?


 



Does anyone still use it?


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Rob K
12 February 2020 18:46:38
https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1227664919111360512 

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Russwirral
12 February 2020 19:17:14

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Does anyone still use it?



 


Interestingly it got mondays event well modelled... others did not


Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
12 February 2020 19:21:21

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


 


 


Interestingly it got mondays event well modelled... others did not



The AROME did.


But the EURO4 precip parameter is clearly broken or not showing up correctly. It has snow in the channel with an ambient temp of 11C.


 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
doctormog
12 February 2020 19:26:08

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


 


 


Interestingly it got mondays event well modelled... others did not



Well it forecast snow at several time points on both Monday and Tuesday here. Needless to say it remained bone dry.


Tim A
12 February 2020 20:46:13

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


The AROME did.


But the EURO4 precip parameter is clearly broken or not showing up correctly. It has snow in the channel with an ambient temp of 11C.


 



 


Why not just look at the snowfall accumulation? 


I find that is usually fairly accurate with Euro4.  Been ok the last few days in terms of showery activity and was accurate in December when we had a small snowfall.


Nothing exciting really:


https://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/web/en/euro4-high/2020/02/12/basis12/ukuk/weas/20021310_1212.gif


 


Precipitation type charts should be banned, they are either faulty or show 1 snowflake:99 rain drops as snow.  Factor in the GFS known bias for exaggerating PM blasts (normally GFS precip type charts are used) and you have hopelessly inaccurate charts most of the time.


 


 


If there was colder air embedded we might be in with a chance of some snow tonight, but it isn't to be.  The temperature hasn't really been below 2c this week, as predicted.   Will be 3c with rain here at 200m asl tonight.  


 


Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl


Jezd
  • Jezd
  • Advanced Member
13 February 2020 01:46:09

Currently heavy wet sleet here in Sheffield, 200m asl mind so probably snow over 300-400m


Dungworth, Sheffield S6 - 250m asl
Snow, snow and more snow!
johncs2016
13 February 2020 02:55:49

This band of precipitation is now not far away from here to my SW according the latest rain radar maps.

Currently, the temperature is hovering around freezing here in Edinburgh (an official air frost has even been recorded at Edinburgh Airport and the botanic gardens in Edinburgh, but not at Edinburgh Gogarbank) and we may well get a few flakes of snow on the leading edge of that as seen when you turn on the precipitation type on those radar maps.

However, this then shows that the heavier stuff is only really giving a little bit of sleet or snow on the hills with mostly rain elsewhere.

When I saw the most recent model runs trending the path of this system back northwards again, I had a feeling that this was going to happen because if there really was going to be a lot of snow on that system, it would probably have ended up staying to our south as what generally tends to happen in these situations.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
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