Obviously there’s a lot to resolve with regard the weekend and in particular next Tuesday night. Subtle differences in phasing of the Tues low and where it makes it’s journey relative to the 300mb jet make big differences in intensity - or indeed whether it exists at all.
It’s a vague idea that might not be properly resolved until Saturday.

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Sunday needs specific focus before we start to worry about Tuesday night IMO 

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2020020506/102-289UK.GIF?05-6

 

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Anymore on this - Are we looking at a January 2007 gale - October 2002 gale - Or Burns day January 1990.

 

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Sunday needs specific focus before we start to worry about Tuesday night IMO 

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2020020506/102-289UK.GIF?05-6

 

Coupled with high spring tides, coastal flooding will once again be a high risk. The only saving grace is being on a Sunday when most 9 to 5 workers will be at home with no rush hour to contend with.

Gavin, I don't think Sunday's event will be the same as Burn's Day as this is a broadscale wind event tied to a deep Atlantic depression off to the north of the UK while the Jan 1990 storm was associated with a vicious "runner" low slicing through the middle of the UK - which a few output runs (eg, yesterday's 18z GFS) has been trying to hint at for the middle of next week. 

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The spring highs are actually Weds next week but they are high over the weekend and it doesn’t take much to raise the high by 20cm or so. Coastal overtopping likely IMO.

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Here's the MetO weather warning 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2020-02-08

and running on to Sunday

Posts above were tranaferred from MO thread

 

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Some models are still playing with the idea that there could be a major storm on or around St. Valentine's Day if not, next Tuesday/Wednesday.

Given that this weekend's storm has already been officially named by the Met Office as Storm Ciara, it would be interesting to see what the chances are of us possibly already experiencing Storm Dennis (which is the next name in that list after Ciara) in addition to that, by the middle of this month.

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Just had scaffolding put all over my house in Surrey so could really, really do without this. Do we think the winds inland will be anything exceptional this weekend?

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Just had scaffolding put all over my house in Surrey so could really, really do without this. Do we thing the winds inland will be anything exception this weekend?

 

Met O going for 50-60 mph gusts inland anywhere in the UK. Not exceptional but strong enough to cause some minor damage to trees & buildings......

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GFS not really having a big wind event next Tuesday. Definitely all about this Saturday night into Sunday.....

https://twitter.com/twoweather/status/1225116030801977344?s=21 

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Looks to me like they'll be 2 main periods of wind, affecting different parts of the UK - Saturday night in to early Sunday has a band of strong wind affecting Scotland, Northern England and Wales, which weakens as it marches South East. Later on Sunday the winds pick up again, with the focus of the strongest winds over England and Wales although still breezy further North.

For the second phase, Arpege going for gusts of 70-80 mph, the latter biased to Wales but the former over a fair chunk of England as things push through Sunday PM. 

GFS seems to top out around 70mph, maybe a bit higher for one or two spots.

Looking rather wild.

 

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Looking through the models it seems that Arpege is currently showing the worst case for the Southern half of the UK - gusts widely to 70mph inland with a fair few up to 80mph sprinkled in for good measure.

Icon though gets the prize for the top gust / severity at present with the storm modelled slightly further north. Still very strong winds in the South (gusts widely 60-70mph inland) but it's the north that takes the brunt.
Top gust is a whopping 108mph across southern Scotland with 90mph+ quite widely across northern half of UK.

Scary stuff if either of those two scenarios come to pass.
Sunday looks like a duvet day to me!

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MetO for all they've named Ciara is on the less spectacular end of the wind speed forecasts. Nevertheless, the gust speeds of 40+mph for all the UK for the whole of Sun - Wed (50+ on w coasts) is impressive.

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ECM continues to paint a very disturbing storm ripping through the heart of England and Wales on Sunday. Gusts at 18:00hrs.

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My poor scaffolding - it's one of those big tin roofs too! Supposed to be designed up to 80mph, but 70 mph gusts are closer than I would have liked it tested

Let's hope the more conservative MetO model is closer to the mark. The wind direction is at least my friend as I'm just below the ridge on the north facing slope of a hill. I shall be watching the evolution of this very closely.

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My poor scaffolding - it's one of those big tin roofs too! Supposed to be designed up to 80mph, but 70 mph gusts are closer than I would have liked it tested

Let's hope the more conservative MetO model is closer to the mark. The wind direction is at least my friend as I'm just below the ridge on the north facing slope of a hill. I shall be watching the evolution of this very closely.

My poor garage roof could finally come a cropper. Still praying for a shift north or some moderation. Worrying times

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06Z GFS HD backs off slightly from Sunday evening’s peak, not developing the wave so much.
Still very windy though and more changes to come no doubt.

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06Z GFS HD backs off slightly from Sunday evening’s peak, not developing the wave so much.
Still very windy though and more changes to come no doubt.

Rightly or wrongly I've always perceived GFS as over blowing (geddit?) Atlantic lows at mid range then slowly being more realistic closer to the moment. What has me worried about this one is the support from other models. Here's hoping they all steadily march this way. 50mph gusts are nothing special, 70mph gusts start to cause real problems.

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It's on the whole looking very turbulent from the weekend onwards. So many low pressures and troughs embedded in increasing the wind further.
I would say with the little changes going on there is potential of other days not so far mentioned as the main ones as being just as notable.
Some areas are going to take a sustained pounding particularly the more NW you go, but not exclusively.
Batten down the hatches and hunker down!

My poor scaffolding - it's one of those big tin roofs too! Supposed to be designed up to 80mph, but 70 mph gusts are closer than I would have liked it tested

Let's hope the more conservative MetO model is closer to the mark. The wind direction is at least my friend as I'm just below the ridge on the north facing slope of a hill. I shall be watching the evolution of this very closely.

Sometimes the Lee slope gets more serious gusts from a rotor effect though.
Scaffolding should be Ok but it would be bad news to have half the roof off.
In 2015 half the roof was supposed to be taken off here, and roughly felted in one day but it was December and despite carrying on until almost dark it was still partly open.
It stayed dry but winds touched 50mph and it was the scariest night ever with horrific banging and booming all night.

It was intolerable upstairs so slept downstairs on settees. Miraculously it was all still in place next morning. 

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