Nothing much of note here as we head into Feb. I continue to think this winter could make the top 10 for mildness.

A step in the right direction in the medium term in terms of cold if that’s what you’re after. A subtle, small and unclear step but a step nonetheless : http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3 

I would be surprised if the ECM shows the equivalent of a 60% on the snow rows here on the 27th.

ECM is as good a run as we've seen this winter (slim pickings).  Positives from this day 9 FI chart is how far south the HP cell is (N Africa) and the jet remains largely to the S of the UK in the latter stages.  I'm encouraged, as users of Scottish Ski resorts should be.

Nothing much of note here as we head into Feb. I continue to think this winter could make the top 10 for mildness.

Yes not looking good for cold and snowy spells. So Brian do you still think there could be something wintry for all after mid February? Or any cold snap or cold spell this winter?

ECM is as good a run as we've seen this winter (slim pickings).  Positives from this day 9 FI chart is how far south the HP cell is (N Africa) and the jet remains largely to the S of the UK in the latter stages.  I'm encouraged, as users of Scottish Ski resorts should be.

Comes to something when a zonal chart is described as the best chart of the winter in mid- late January. 

 

Comes to something when a zonal chart is described as the best chart of the winter in mid- late January. 

That's where we are at.  And I think we had perhaps  best dial down our expectations for the years to come. 

 

That's where we are at.  And I think we had perhaps  best dial down our expectations for the years to come. 

Wow, an actual ‘winters are over, full stop’ post.

Wow, an actual ‘winters are over, full stop’ post.

LOL - Dramatic stuff eh? Weather is about synoptics. Get the right source and it's game on. It may not happen this winter but things change quickly so some perspective is needed (I know, I know, it's wasted in here! ) 

There has been plenty of very cold air up north this year. Just been impossible to get any of it this far south. 

Good synoptics would still deliver the goods. 

There has been plenty of very cold air up north this year. Just been impossible to get any of it this far south. 

/quote]

I know - that bloody Arctic gets it every year

---

S.Essex, 42m ASL

There has been plenty of very cold air up north this year. Just been impossible to get any of it this far south. 

I know - that bloody Arctic gets it every year

ha! 

I guess my point is, very often we say “look at the severe lack of cold air to our north, even if we get a northerly it will be watered down, etc etc”

In actual fact, there has been no shortage of cold air to our north this year. 

Of course good Synoptics will deliver - even in these 1.1 degree warmer times than a pre industrial world, but it is fair to say that good Synoptics are getting rarer. Look I am too near to 60 to throw a stone past the gap, so when I was a young lad, the world was only 0.5 degrees warmer than pre-industrial times, and guess what, we got more cold episodes and they lasted longer. It was common for snow to hang about "waiting for the next lot" we used to say. That's less likely now, but like the beast from the east, if you get the Synoptics right - you'll get snow that really settles on low ground - even in Match. It's not the first snowless winter and it won't be the last, but it is likely that these warmer winters will become ever more common - and the rate of change is speeding up.

I still think we might get a toppler at least in Feb. In zonal years, the cold stays locked up above the jet and does not spill out, but as it is still dark 24 hours up there it's getting colder still. Eventually it does destabilise and you do get really good Easter incursions - and as per the Beast, this can occur in Match - even April (even now), though the days of snow stopping play on June 6th at Colchester cricket ground have gone.

Absolutely agree. 

We seem to have the double whammy of fewer instances of cold synoptics, and even when we do get them, it isn’t quite as cold as it used to be. 

The simple theory is the jet is more active. 

You can dress it up as much as you like, but the ‘winter’ has been pig swill so far and not just for the UK. Those days of ‘snow on snow’ are a rare distant memory for most of us down here in lowland Britain and yes March 2018 was an exception but it was March - the longer days and higher sun finished off the snow within two days.
Back on topic (or still on topic) it’s looking more of the same to the end of Jan with next to zero prospects of meaningful cold.

I don’t think anyone has, and would, disagree with any of that. 

 

In actual fact, there has been no shortage of cold air to our north this year. 

Chicken and egg!

When the jet's strong and not meandering, it "bottles up" the cold. That then gets trapped, effectively, which itself helps reinforce the strength of the jet due to the temperature contrast with those areas where the sun is starting to strengthen. (Hence the stereotypical March gales, as the still-cold Arctic air clashes with the rapidly warming midlatitude air).

To see any of it, we need the jet to buckle such that we get it. The chances of that are lower than usual, though, not least due to the depth of the cold up north!

Eventually it'll head south, but whether we have to wait until spring remains to be seen.

GFS this morning showing HP for this week, largely gone by the weekend, then a rther irregular zoanl flow with Lp and HP giving 'bumps' in the general westerly theme. (LP mid-Atlantic 29th/30th Jan, HP swiftly followed by LP Sun 2nd/Mon 3rd Feb - some potent gales out of that last combination)

ECM similar but brings LP and cold air further south and over the UK 29th Jan.

In the S, GEFS temps a little above seasonal norm until 27th Jan, and dry; then more widespread rain than forecast yesterday and temps up and down in big swings, presumably correlating with whether the zonal flow is SWly or NWly. In the N, milder wrt seasonal norm at first, the up-and-down pattern also there but more on the cold side of normal.

Not looking good really for any snow for lowland UK (on the whole). Things improve slightly as we get some cooler interludes with passing fronts, but that is about it! 

Absolutely nothing in Saddleworth snow wise this winter other than a brief sprinkle above about 400m in November! Snow is possible in March though, so we will hopefully pick something up later winter, early spring!

 

Absolutely agree. 

We seem to have the double whammy of fewer instances of cold synoptics, and even when we do get them, it isn’t quite as cold as it used to be. 

The simple theory is the jet is more active. 

I think that's broadly correct, Joe.

While instances of cold, especially deep and long-lasting cold, have certainly become fewer, the likes of December 2010 (coldest December since the late 19th century I think) proved that given the right synoptics, it is still possible to get notable cold spells in this country which are comparable to those of more than 30 years ago. We then had March 2013 which although that was technically a spring month, was the coldest overall March in this country since the early 60s.

If you ask me, the jet seems to have been more active all year round in many years since the turn of the century not just the winter, but maybe that's just my perception.