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January UK Temperature analysis and discussion
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 1,380   Location: St Albans
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Originally Posted by: Caz  I’m certainly thinking I’ve gone too low with 5.2c!  I foolishly put some faith in the Met Office 4 week outlook which has consistently forecast temperatures returning to nearer normal, possibly cold at times. So I was expecting a dip later in the month. Could still happen I suppose but now looking unlikely. |
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl) Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl) |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 12,076 Location: West Hants
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Wow GW, I'm impressed by your bravado! I was seriously deliberating a very high estimate for this month, seeing that so much is in place for that, but kept getting this nasty feeling that if I did so, high pressure would manage to build just about far north enough to produce some cold inversion weather at times. The risk of that increases as the month goes on, due to the seasonal vortex easing aided by the QBO turning more and more easterly. So, I cowardly backed out of anything much more than a degree above the LTA. Let's see how much I regret it now, having told you what I might have done   .
Liking your thinking regarding odds of March being the lowest-CET month. We really do need to see some good releases of cold air from the Arctic to reduce the snow cover deficits across the mid-latitudes in general, else the spring heat-up is going to be rampant with so little to oppose it.
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Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2021's Homeland Extremes: T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb) Keep Calm and Forecast On |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,201 Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 6.7c. Anomaly 3.2c Provisional to 6th Metcheck 6.74c Anomaly 2.59c Netweather 7.25c Anomaly 3.06c Peasedown St John 7.5c Anomaly 2.22c |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 10/06/2016(UTC) Posts: 4,854 Location: Blackrod, near Chorley, Lancs - alt: 156m
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So January running higher than both November and December so far, and there's not much sign of any significant drop in that figure for the forseeable either. It would be incedible if January turned out to be the warmest month of the extended winter (November to March included). I wonder when the last time that happened was, if ever? |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC) Posts: 238 Location: Aylesbury, Bucks
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In 1916 it was by some margin. Both November and March surrounding that winter were exceptionally cold. Must have been a very strange winter and nature must have got very confused
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 16/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,327
Location: costa solent
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Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread In 1916 it was by some margin. Both November and March surrounding that winter were exceptionally cold. Must have been a very strange winter and nature must have got very confused Yes at 7.5C
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,201 Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 6th January 2019 CET was 3.9c. Met Office Hadley 7.0c. Anomaly 3.4c. Provisional to 6th. Metcheck 6.71c Anomaly 2.55c Netweather 6.31c Anomaly 3.12c Peasedown St John 7.5c Anomaly 2.22c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,806
Location: South Cambridgeshire
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Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Met Office Hadley 6th January 2019 CET was 3.9c. Met Office Hadley 7.0c. Anomaly 3.4c. Provisional to 6th. Metcheck 6.71c Anomaly 2.55c Netweather 6.31c Anomaly 3.12c Peasedown St John 7.5c Anomaly 2.22c. Phew - I went for 6.0C thinking that was quite high. At this rate I've gone too low. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,201 Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 7.1c Anomaly 3.6c Provisional to 7th Metcheck 7.30c Anomaly 3.15c Netweather 7.62c Anomaly 3.43c Peasedown St John 7.8c Anomaly 2.52c |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,806
Location: South Cambridgeshire
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When you think we're on 7.1C atm. No cold spells in sight We're in the top 5 mildest January's territory now.
5. 7.0 2007 4. 7.1 1834 3. 7.3 1796 2. 7.3 1921 1. 7.5 1916 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC) Posts: 9,191 Location: Dover
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Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger When you think we're on 7.1C atm. No cold spells in sight We're in the top 5 mildest January's territory now.
5. 7.0 2007 4. 7.1 1834 3. 7.3 1796 2. 7.3 1921 1. 7.5 1916 Average temperatures from now to the end of the month will result in a drop to between 5 and 6, slightly above average will result in a drop to around 6c. Maintaining or even exceeding 7c will take some doing, its not impossible but not that likely either. |
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,201 Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 7.4c. Anomaly 3.9c. Provisional to 8th. Metcheck 7.50c Anomaly 3.34c Netweather 7.89c Anomaly 3.7c Peasedown St John 8.2c Anomaly 2.92c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,806
Location: South Cambridgeshire
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Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Met Office Hadley 7.4c. Anomaly 3.9c. Provisional to 8th. Metcheck 7.50c Anomaly 3.34c Netweather 7.89c Anomaly 3.7c Peasedown St John 8.2c Anomaly 2.92c. 
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC) Posts: 6,714 Location: Chineham, Basingstoke
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Still looking quite mild for the foreseeable future. Not quite as warm as in the earlier update but the CET sticks above 7C for the foreseeable future, albeit somewhat below the CET record figure. TABLE1 TABLE2 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,806
Location: South Cambridgeshire
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Originally Posted by: Global Warming Still looking quite mild for the foreseeable future. Not quite as warm as in the earlier update but the CET sticks above 7C for the foreseeable future, albeit somewhat below the CET record figure. TABLE1 TABLE2
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,201 Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 7.5c Anomaly 3.6c. Provisional to 9th Metcheck 7.30c Anomaly 3.15c Netweather 7.62c Anomaly 3.43c Peasedown St John 8.2c Anomaly 2.92c |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 15,425 Location: Folkestone
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Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Met Office Hadley 7.5c Anomaly 3.6c. Provisional to 9th Metcheck 7.30c Anomaly 3.15c Netweather 7.62c Anomaly 3.43c Peasedown St John 8.2c Anomaly 2.92c ...before Gavin gets in first. 
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,201 Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Originally Posted by: Gusty ...before Gavin gets in first.
👍👌😈😵😭💪 |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 35,520
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Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger When you think we're on 7.1C atm. No cold spells in sight We're in the top 5 mildest January's territory now.
5. 7.0 2007 4. 7.1 1834 3. 7.3 1796 2. 7.3 1921 1. 7.5 1916 Must have been remarkable to get the first and second warmest January's on CET record within five years of each other!  Edited by user 10 January 2020 12:11:46(UTC)
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,806
Location: South Cambridgeshire
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Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Met Office Hadley 7.5c Anomaly 3.6c. Provisional to 9th Metcheck 7.30c Anomaly 3.15c Netweather 7.62c Anomaly 3.43c Peasedown St John 8.2c Anomaly 2.92c Phew - we're now equalling the record. |
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