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Offline GezM  
#21 Posted : 06 January 2020 11:12:42(UTC)
GezM

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,380
Man
United Kingdom
Location: St Albans

Originally Posted by: Caz Go to Quoted Post

I’m certainly thinking I’ve gone too low with 5.2c!  

I foolishly put some faith in the Met Office 4 week outlook which has consistently forecast temperatures returning to nearer normal, possibly cold at times. So I was expecting a dip later in the month. Could still happen I suppose but now looking unlikely.

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Offline Stormchaser  
#22 Posted : 06 January 2020 11:14:51(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 12,076
Man
Location: West Hants

Wow GW, I'm impressed by your bravado!

I was seriously deliberating a very high estimate for this month, seeing that so much is in place for that, but kept getting this nasty feeling that if I did so, high pressure would manage to build just about far north enough to produce some cold inversion weather at times.

The risk of that increases as the month goes on, due to the seasonal vortex easing aided by the QBO turning more and more easterly.

 

So, I cowardly backed out of anything much more than a degree above the LTA. Let's see how much I regret it now, having told you what I might have done .

 


Liking your thinking regarding odds of March being the lowest-CET month. We really do need to see some good releases of cold air from the Arctic to reduce the snow cover deficits across the mid-latitudes in general, else the spring heat-up is going to be rampant with so little to oppose it.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2021's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline ARTzeman  
#23 Posted : 06 January 2020 11:20:51(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley          6.7c.       Anomaly     3.2c Provisional to 6th

Metcheck                      6.74c        Anomaly    2.59c

Netweather                   7.25c        Anomaly    3.06c

Peasedown St John      7.5c       Anomaly        2.22c   

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Bolty  
#24 Posted : 06 January 2020 12:31:29(UTC)
Bolty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/06/2016(UTC)
Posts: 4,854
Man
Location: Blackrod, near Chorley, Lancs - alt: 156m

So January running higher than both November and December so far, and there's not much sign of any significant drop in that figure for the forseeable either. It would be incedible if January turned out to be the warmest month of the extended winter (November to March included). I wonder when the last time that happened was, if ever?
Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station

Offline Spring Sun Winter Dread  
#25 Posted : 06 January 2020 13:51:00(UTC)
Spring Sun Winter Dread

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 238
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Aylesbury, Bucks

In 1916 it was by some margin. Both November and March surrounding that winter were exceptionally cold. Must have been a very strange winter and nature must have got very confused
Offline picturesareme  
#26 Posted : 06 January 2020 20:07:20(UTC)
picturesareme

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 16/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,327
Location: costa solent

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread Go to Quoted Post
In 1916 it was by some margin. Both November and March surrounding that winter were exceptionally cold. Must have been a very strange winter and nature must have got very confused

Yes at 7.5C 

Offline ARTzeman  
#27 Posted : 07 January 2020 10:56:04(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley      6th January 2019 CET was  3.9c.

Met Office Hadley            7.0c.        Anomaly        3.4c. Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck                         6.71c       Anomaly        2.55c

Netweather                      6.31c       Anomaly        3.12c

Peasedown St John     7.5c      Anomaly      2.22c.          

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#28 Posted : 07 January 2020 11:27:06(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,806
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Met Office Hadley      6th January 2019 CET was  3.9c.

Met Office Hadley            7.0c.        Anomaly        3.4c. Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck                         6.71c       Anomaly        2.55c

Netweather                      6.31c       Anomaly        3.12c

Peasedown St John     7.5c      Anomaly      2.22c.          

Phew - I went for 6.0C thinking that was quite high. At this rate I've gone too low.

 

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.

Offline ARTzeman  
#29 Posted : 08 January 2020 11:49:31(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         7.1c        Anomaly     3.6c Provisional to 7th

Metcheck                      7.30c      Anomaly     3.15c

Netweather                   7.62c      Anomaly     3.43c

Peasedown St John      7.8c       Anomaly      2.52c       

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#30 Posted : 08 January 2020 14:07:39(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,806
Location: South Cambridgeshire

When you think we're on 7.1C atm. No cold spells in sight We're in the top 5 mildest January's territory now.  


5. 7.0 2007

4. 7.1 1834

3. 7.3 1796

2. 7.3 1921

1. 7.5 1916

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.

Offline Whether Idle  
#31 Posted : 09 January 2020 08:11:22(UTC)
Whether Idle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC)
Posts: 9,191
Man
Location: Dover

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger Go to Quoted Post

When you think we're on 7.1C atm. No cold spells in sight We're in the top 5 mildest January's territory now.  


5. 7.0 2007

4. 7.1 1834

3. 7.3 1796

2. 7.3 1921

1. 7.5 1916

Average temperatures from now to the end of the month will result in a drop to between 5 and 6, slightly above average will result in a drop to around 6c. 

Maintaining or even exceeding 7c will take some doing, its not impossible but not that likely either.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Offline ARTzeman  
#32 Posted : 09 January 2020 10:54:51(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         7.4c.        Anomaly       3.9c. Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                     7.50c        Anomaly       3.34c

Netweather                  7.89c        Anomaly       3.7c

Peasedown St John      8.2c         Anomaly       2.92c.  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#33 Posted : 09 January 2020 13:59:57(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,806
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Met Office Hadley         7.4c.        Anomaly       3.9c. Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                     7.50c        Anomaly       3.34c

Netweather                  7.89c        Anomaly       3.7c

Peasedown St John      8.2c         Anomaly       2.92c.  

 

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.

Offline Global Warming  
#34 Posted : 09 January 2020 22:07:01(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Still looking quite mild for the foreseeable future. Not quite as warm as in the earlier update but the CET sticks above 7C for the foreseeable future, albeit somewhat below the CET record figure.

TABLE1

TABLE2

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#35 Posted : 10 January 2020 10:02:40(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,806
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: Global Warming Go to Quoted Post

Still looking quite mild for the foreseeable future. Not quite as warm as in the earlier update but the CET sticks above 7C for the foreseeable future, albeit somewhat below the CET record figure.

TABLE1

TABLE2

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.

Offline ARTzeman  
#36 Posted : 10 January 2020 11:05:36(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        7.5c      Anomaly      3.6c. Provisional to 9th

Metcheck                     7.30c    Anomaly      3.15c

Netweather                  7.62c    Anomaly      3.43c

Peasedown St John      8.2c     Anomaly      2.92c    

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Gusty  
#37 Posted : 10 January 2020 11:07:29(UTC)
Gusty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 15,425
Man
Location: Folkestone

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Met Office Hadley        7.5c      Anomaly      3.6c. Provisional to 9th

Metcheck                     7.30c    Anomaly      3.15c

Netweather                  7.62c    Anomaly      3.43c

Peasedown St John      8.2c     Anomaly      2.92c    

...before Gavin gets in first. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground...m/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/

Offline ARTzeman  
#38 Posted : 10 January 2020 11:17:34(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post

 

...before Gavin gets in first. 

👍👌😈😵😭💪

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Gavin P  
#39 Posted : 10 January 2020 12:08:02(UTC)
Gavin P

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 35,520
Man
United Kingdom

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger Go to Quoted Post

When you think we're on 7.1C atm. No cold spells in sight We're in the top 5 mildest January's territory now.  


5. 7.0 2007

4. 7.1 1834

3. 7.3 1796

2. 7.3 1921

1. 7.5 1916

Must have been remarkable to get the first and second warmest January's on CET record within five years of each other! 

Edited by user 10 January 2020 12:11:46(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#40 Posted : 10 January 2020 13:42:41(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,806
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Met Office Hadley        7.5c      Anomaly      3.6c. Provisional to 9th

Metcheck                     7.30c    Anomaly      3.15c

Netweather                  7.62c    Anomaly      3.43c

Peasedown St John      8.2c     Anomaly      2.92c    

Phew - we're now equalling the record.

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.

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