KevBrads1
14 December 2019 13:53:24

Here is my prediction for the year 2020 and also some predictions for the decade of the 2020s.


2020


January: Generally unsettled but not especially wet. Snow potential during any polar maritime episodes. On the mild side


February: Unsettled, generally mild. 


March: On the dry side, first real spring warmth.


April: Wetter and milder than average 


May: on the average side, temperatures and rainfall


June: on the average side, temperatures and rainfall


July: Best month of the summer, on the warm and dry side. A couple of heatwaves


August: another mediocre August, wetter than average


September: on the wet side but generally mild


October: drier than September and a touch cooler than average


November: generally unsetlled, one of two notable gales


December: mostly unsettled and generally mild


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Predictions for the  2020s


Sub zero CET month in the 2020s?  No


Hottest CET month on record? No


Wettest and driest month on record for England and Wales? No to each


Wettest and driest individual months on record for England and Wales?  No to any month being the driest on record for it's grouping but wettest April on record, I'm going for occurring in the 2020s


Highest maximum ever recorded in the UK? Yes. 39.2C during July


Lowest minimum ever recorded in the UK? No


Coldest/mildest winter on record for CET? No to each


Coldest/mildest spring on record for CET? No to coldest, mildest, yes


Coldest/hottest summer on record for CET? No to each


Coldest/mildest autumn on record for CET? No to coldest, mildest, yes


Top 30 coldest, top 30 mildest CETs for each month?


(top 30 coldest, top 30 mildest)


January: 0, 3


February: 1, 2


March: 0, 2


April: 0, 4


May: 0, 1


June: 0, 2


July: 0, 3


August: 0, 1


September: 0, 3


October: 0, 4


November: 0, 4


December: 0, 2


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
Rob K
14 December 2019 21:10:54

I would have thought the hottest summer, highest annual CET and highest CET month are all fairly likely before 2030.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
johncs2016
14 December 2019 22:15:19
I haven't yet made up my mind about what I think will happen during the 2020s, but it wouldn't surprise me if somewhere in the UK hits 40°C on the odd day before the end of that decade with that not necessarily occurring during a decent summer and it also wouldn't surprise me if really cold winters such as the one which we were in at the beginning of this decade, becoming more or less a thing of the past by then.

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Bolty
26 December 2019 14:22:23

I'm not sure about the decade as a whole, but I'll post my prediction for 2020. I have a feeling it's going to be a rather non-descript year as a whole, to be honest, with no season really sticking out.


January: A very mild month, possibly touching on exceptionally mild at times, with very little in the way of any cold weather. I don't think it will be overly wet away from the far north west however, with a Bartlett High sheltering most of the country from the worst of the Atlantic. (CET: 6.3°C)


February: Cooler than January, but still overall a mild winter month. High pressure to the SE perhaps weakens slightly, allowing more of an Atlantic flow to return. A times, a brief toppler could bring some short-lived colder spells. (CET: 5.0°C)


March: Quite a north-westerly, Pm-type month, with frequent showers for many western coasts. Colder air does push through fairly frequently, bringing the only real widespread snowfall of the season early on in the month. (CET: 5.5°C)


April: A very traditional April with frequent showers, some of which are thundery. Around mid-month we see the first proper warm spell of the spring, with temperatures widely above 20°C. (CET: 8.4°C)


May: Settling down as high pressure hangs close to the UK, bringing a pretty decent month. Sunshine and temperatures are above average, and rainfall is below. Towards the late May bank holiday weekend, the first hot spell of the summer occurs with temperatures widely in the mid-to upper 20s. (CET: 12.5°C)


June: After a decent May, high pressure slips away to the south, allowing a westerly flow to produce a rather non-descript month. Generally quite cloudy with the odd warmer day mixed in. (CET: 14.2°C)


July: The best month of the summer, but nothing overly awe-inspiring occurs. Some warm and dry spells, with a Spanish plume around mid-month, but also a few cooler and wetter spells, especially later on. The mid-month Spanish plume produces a widespread thunderstorm event. (CET: 16.5°C)


August: The new decade sees yet another mediocre August. Temperatures are below average, whilst cloud and rainfall totals are above. (CET: 15.7°C)


September: After an indifferent summer, high pressure returns for a bit, producing a warmer, drier and sunnier than average start to autumn. Nothing particularly hot, just gentle late summer/early autumn warmth. (CET: 15.1°C)


October: High pressure slips away to the south again, allowing a westerly flow to produce another rather indifferent month. Nothing particularly stormy occurs, just a changeable autumn month with near-average temperatures. (CET: 11.3°C)


November: The Atlantic fires up, producing a very wet month, with one or two notable gales. The odd northerly incursion brings the odd short-lived cold snap. (CET: 7.1°C)


December: High pressure builds a bit further west, placing the UK under a colder flow from the N/NW. One or two widespread snow events occur in the first half of the month, before high pressure brings a cold and dry Christmas. (CET: 2.7°C)


Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
LeedsLad123
26 December 2019 15:12:33
I don’t know why people are saying ‘another mediocre August’ when August this year was pretty good.

Anyway, I expect another heatwave at some point. Probably breaking some record.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Bolty
26 December 2019 17:11:36

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

I don’t know why people are saying ‘another mediocre August’ when August this year was pretty good.

Anyway, I expect another heatwave at some point. Probably breaking some record.


Apart from the heat wave over the bank holiday weekend, it was another uninspiring month around here. Lots of days in the mid-upper teens and cloudy with rain.


The only really decent August in recent years around here was 2016, if I'm honest. The rest have been no more than "meh".


Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
richardabdn
31 December 2019 15:08:51

For 2020 in Aberdeen:


January and February - a continuation of the horror show that has been December 2019 resulting in the most snowless winter on record as well as the first time that successive winters have each failed to get 5cm of snow at some point.


Spring - dominated by vile easterly winds with the first half of April particularly repulsive – grey, wet and cold but no frost or snow.


Summer – Another dire wet one with the worst weather always falling at the weekends. Record or near record low maxes likely at some point.


Autumn – Dismal, unsettled and frost free with poor tree colour. Little in the way of warmth either with September failing to hit 20C.


December – So bad there isn’t even a single air frost.


As for the decade as a whole, well it’s a case of a continuation of life in the weather vacuum. Even worse than the 2010s with bland garbage dominating to an extent that extremes of all kind no longer happen (which is pretty much the case already).


Despite the 2010s having the lowest absolute maximum of any decade, the 2020s will be even worse not managing to hit 27C and no readings below -10C either. No 10cm depth of snow or 70 mph wind gust. Even days with 25mm will start to become increasingly rare. 


Almost every year will have 200+ rain days but none will be notably wet and any “dry” years will still record above average rain days.


The current record high mean temp for a 12-month period of 9.83C, for the 12 months ending 10th June 2007, will not be beaten at any point.


Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
01 January 2020 07:04:36

Originally Posted by: richardabdn 


For 2020 in Aberdeen:


 



And you will continue to bitch, moan and whine about the weather for the whole of 2020.


That's my prediction.


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
springsunshine
01 January 2020 18:07:06

One statistic that could be confidently predicded for the next decade is that the annual cet is very unlikely to be sub 10c in any year and there is now a high probability of seeing the first 11c+ in the cet recoed. We will of course get our usual mixed bag of weather across all seasons and yes there will probably be one or two epic hot and cold spells but winter is the disappearing season certainly in terms of cold temperatures,snow and frost as yet again this `winter`is showing.

Gusty
01 January 2020 18:48:45

40c will be exceeded in the UK during this decade.


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



John S2
01 January 2020 19:27:12
Some predictions for the 2020s, with brief reasons:
1) Monthly CET - I think the most vulnerable record is March. Could easily be broken, for example a brisk south westerly first half [to keep frosts away] followed by an anticyclonic but southerly second half.
2) Summers - combination of low solar activity plus arctic amplification will mean many negative NAO summers. Unlikely to see a 2-month June & July combination as good as 2018 in my location [NW England]
3) Winters - best chance of severe months at end of decade when Hale cycle returns?
phlippy67
01 January 2020 23:06:54
More disappointment during the 'winter' months...
johncs2016
05 January 2020 14:41:56

Here is my prediction for the rest of this year.


January - The mild weather which we finished the 2010s with will continue throughout this month with more long-fetched SW winds from the Tropical Atlantic Ocean. I don't think that we will get our mildest January on record, but this month will be very mild nevertheless. With the model output now looking slightly more unsettled than what it did a few days ago, I am anticipating that this month will provide us with average to slightly above average rainfall, with most of the rainfall being to our west and not all that much of it getting through to the east of Scotland.


February - A continuation of the same old mild and zonal theme, although we probably won't see those exceptionally high temperatures which were recorded during February 2019 on this occasion. Nevertheless, it will be another milder month which is more substantially wetter than average month in this part of the world, although this is due to the fact that February is our driest winter month on average according to the 1981-2010 averages.


March - The unsettled weather continues in Scotland, but becomes more confined to NW Scotland over time as high pressure to our south becomes more influential. For here, it will be our first drier than average month for some time, though still with a lot of cloud around as the driest and sunniest weather will still be down south at this stage. Overall though, it will be a mild or even a warm month right across the UK with SE England already starting to get well into the 20s.


April - An anticyclonic month which is warm and sunny right across the board, although there might still be a few frosty mornings. It will be much drier than average overall, much warmer than average and also much sunnier than average.


May - By now, the switch to an easterly QBO is starting to take effect, along with a very late SSW event. This will cause the high pressure which is sitting right over the UK in April, to drift to our north and start to feed in easterly winds. This will frustrate a of people on the MO thread who will now being seeing a lot of "if only it were winter" synoptics which they could have done with seeing right now. From that, the weather will be hot and sunny here in Scotland away from the east coast which will continued to plagued by cooler temperatures along with low and east coast haar being bought in by those easterly winds from off the North Sea.


June - The blocking high to our north remains in place for the first half of the month, oscillating in its position between Scandinavia, Iceland and Greenland. That will continue to feed in easterly winds which bring hot and sunny weather to our west, but with the east coast continued to be plagued my much cooler temperatures, low cloud and that east coast haar. Over time though, low pressure will slowly edge in with the weather becoming more unsettled as a result. That could bring a thundery breakdown to begin with before it then becomes generally more unsettled and cooler during the second half of the month.


July - A rather unsettled month although the odd Spanish Plume can't be ruled out. Low pressure becomes centred over or just to the north of the UK. If the low pressure is centred right over the UK, it will be very wet right across the UK, otherwise the wettest weather will be here in Scotland with SE England escaping reasonably OK. For here in Scotland in particular, it will probably be rather a cool month.


August - A typically zonal month with the wettest weather being here across Scotland, but with England and Wales being that bit drier. Temperatures will be close to average here in Scotland although England and Wales will be a bit warmer.


September - A more gently unsettled month here in Scotland with the Azores High ridging more into England and Wales to give some drier weather down there. For here in Scotland, rainfall will be around average with slightly above average temperatures.


October - High pressure builds more strongly to our east to possibly give us a bit of an Indian Summer with warm winds wafting up from the south at times. It will be a dry month which will be both warmer and sunnier than average.


November - High pressure remains close by and continues to give us another drier than average, but an increasingly strong jet is already putting that ridge under a lot of pressure and pushing it further south. That results in the UK being on the mild side of that block, so that ends up being a dry and rather mild month with the wettest places being in NW Scotland.


December - Back to square one with a return to more zonal and unsettled conditions with a lot of mild weather. However, the effects of the easterly QBO will be to result in more of a NW-SE aligned jet which gives us a greater chance of any showers in between those weather systems turning to sleet or snow, especially over high ground though not exclusively so.


 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Stormchaser
06 January 2020 11:22:58

Er, well, for what it's worth...


Jan: Predominantly mild, perhaps some colder anticyclonic weather later on for S UK.


Feb: Not as mild as Jan; mildness more intermittent. Some chance (not big!) of a more noteworthy cold spell in the final third.


Mar: If there's going to be a big cold snowy spell of weather within the first quarter of 2020, this month's most likely to see it IMO. On the flip-side, I'd not be surprised to see some unusual warmth by the final week.


Apr-Jun: Clarity falls off a cliff due to very uncertain El Nino Southern Oscillation prospects. Could see the recent Nina-like atmospheric tendency finally give way, favouring warmer but more unsettled months. Otherwise, cooler but drier, though some chance of an April 2011-like wonder.


Jul-Oct: Again, highly ENSO-dependent. Low solar activity amplifies this; whatever patterns dominate are likely to be particularly persistent.


Nov-Dec: Best chance of a cold start to winter since 2010, thanks to low solar plus a well-established easterly QBO. Possible spanner in the works is if ENSO has continued (let alone increased) a La Nina tendency.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected] 🙂
https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
KevBrads1
29 January 2020 08:01:53

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


Here is my prediction for the year 2020


2020


January: Generally unsettled but not especially wet. Snow potential during any polar maritime episodes. On the mild side


 



Looking reasonable


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
jhall
29 January 2020 17:02:03

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


 


Looking reasonable



Pretty impressive! Any modification to your forecast for the next month or two?


Cranleigh, Surrey
Bolty
30 January 2020 00:40:31

Originally Posted by: Bolty 


January: A very mild month, possibly touching on exceptionally mild at times, with very little in the way of any cold weather. I don't think it will be overly wet away from the far north west however, with a Bartlett High sheltering most of the country from the worst of the Atlantic. (CET: 6.3°C)



Quite pleased with that, to be honest.


Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
KevBrads1
01 March 2020 15:32:15

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


Here is my prediction for the year 2020 and also some predictions for the decade of the 2020s.


2020


February: Unsettled, generally mild. 



 


Didn't expect it to be so wet


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
Users browsing this topic

    Ads