Gavin D
05 September 2020 15:36:59

Thursday 10 Sep - Saturday 19 Sep


A mainly settled start is expected for this period in the south of the UK with fine and dry weather. Although, with clearer skies and lighter winds, mist or fog may form on some nights. More unsettled spells of weather are expected in the north of the UK with rain and strong winds for many, with a risk of this pushing further south at times. Temperatures should be around average for the time of year, however it may be a little cooler than such for some. Although confidence is low for the latter part of this period, it is more likely that we will see a spell of more settled weather for a time, especially across southern counties.


Sunday 20 Sep - Sunday 4 Oct


Although confidence is low for this period, more settled weather is expected with lighter winds and drier conditions, especially for the south. Any unsettled weather with rain and stronger winds will most likely affect northern counties, however this may push further south at times. It is expected that it will feel a touch cooler than usual for the time of year.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Gavin D
08 September 2020 19:19:35

Sunday 13 Sep - Tuesday 22 Sep


The start of the period is likely to bring change to the weather seen in recent weeks, with conditions expected to become more settled in the up coming days ahead. This settled weather look set to bring temperatures to near normal for most, but the South could see warm or very warm temperature at times. Elsewhere, clear skies and light winds at night may see widespread mist or fog develop. The warm weather in the south could also harbour some thundery activity particularly for the South West after a prolonged warm spell. Uncertainty lies in the duration of the settled weather, with a potential of a return to more changeable, unsettled weather by the end of the period.


Wednesday 23 Sep - Wednesday 7 Oct


Confidence becomes very low for this period, but a changeable few week ahead looks most likely. The whole of the UK looks likely to see a weekly alternating set up between unsettled conditions, which would see typical autumnal wet and windy weather, followed by sunnier more settled conditions. Overall temperatures are likely to average out to near normal, but are likely to fluctuate with the weather, with the unsettled conditions bringing cooler spells, followed by warmer spells as it settles back down.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Gavin D
09 September 2020 14:45:21

Monday 14 Sep - Wednesday 23 Sep


The start of the period is likely to bring a change to the weather seen in recent weeks, with conditions expected to become more settled in the upcoming days. This settled weather looks set to bring temperatures to above normal for most, with the South possibly seeing warm or very warm temperature at times. Elsewhere, clear skies and light winds at night may see widespread mist or fog develop. The warm weather in the south could also harbour some thundery activity, particularly for the South West after a prolonged warm spell. Uncertainty lies in the duration of the settled weather, with a potential return to more changeable, unsettled weather by the end of the period.


Thursday 24 Sep - Thursday 8 Oct


Confidence becomes very low for this period, but a changeable few week ahead looks most likely. The whole of the UK looks likely to see a weekly alternating set up between unsettled conditions, which would see typical autumnal wet and windy weather, followed by sunnier more settled conditions. Overall temperatures are likely to average out to near normal, but are likely to fluctuate with the weather, with the unsettled conditions bringing cooler spells, followed by warmer spells as it settles back down.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
09 September 2020 14:55:28

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


The UK has reported 2,659 new cases


Last Wednesday. The UK reported 1,508 cases



Is this your deliberate attempt to see if anybody is taking any notice of your posts Gavin? 


Or is this the number of cases of winter weather hype on Weather Forums? 


 


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Gavin D
10 September 2020 16:34:48

Tuesday 15 Sep - Thursday 24 Sep


Initially the settled weather is likely to continue for most. This will bring above average temperatures in many locations, with southern areas in particular possibly seeing very warm or hot conditions by day. However, the warm weather in the south could also bring an increased risk of showers and thundery activity, particularly for the southwest. Overnight where cloud breaks allow, light winds will allow the development of mist or fog. Beyond midweek it is uncertain how long this spell of settled conditions will continue for. There is a broad signal for the potential return of more unsettled and changeable conditions to extend across western and in particular southwestern areas, whilst conditions may remain more settled across eastern and in particular northeastern areas, albeit with temperatures falling closer to average here.


Friday 25 Sep - Friday 9 Oct


Confidence becomes very low for this period, but a changeable few week ahead looks most likely. The whole of the UK looks likely to see an alternating set up between unsettled conditions, which would see typical autumnal wet and windy weather, followed by sunnier more settled conditions. Overall temperatures are likely to average out to near normal, but are likely to fluctuate with the weather, with the unsettled conditions perhaps bringing cooler spells, followed by warmer spells, especially by day as it settles back down.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Gavin D
10 September 2020 16:37:04

BBC monthly outlook


Summary


A mixed bag of weather for the month ahead.


_________________________________


Wednesday 9 September – Sunday 13 September


Wet at times in the north. Driest in the south.


The northern half of the UK will be wet and windy at times through the remainder of this week. The south will have the lengthiest periods of dry weather. Wednesday will see a band of cloud and patchy rain spreading south-eastwards. The patchy rain will give way to cooler but brighter weather in its wake. Much of the UK will see some sunshine developing through the afternoon. However, Scotland and northwest England will remain windy with a scattering of showers. On Thursday, after a chilly start in places, England and Wales will be largely dry with bright or sunny intervals.

Scotland and Northern Ireland will be mostly dry and bright at first. But, it will become cloudier and windier through the day with rain arriving in the west later as fronts approach from the Atlantic. On Friday and Saturday, the northern half of the UK will be cool and windy with showers or rain. Western Scotland has the potential for heavy and prolonged rain on Friday.
The southern half of the UK will have bright spells and only sporadic rainfall with temperatures mainly near average. By Sunday, high pressure should bring more extensive drier and sunnier weather over the UK. However, strong winds and rain may linger over parts of northern Scotland.


Monday 14 September – Sunday 20 September


Very warm for a time. Drier in the north.


Next week, there are signs of a brief return to summer for parts of the UK. A day or two of sunnier and much warmer weather is favoured early in the week as we import air from the Mediterranean. There is uncertainty over the northern extent of this warmth. However, parts of England and Wales could easily experience highs into the mid to locally high 20s Celsius for a time. From the middle part of next week, confidence in the forecast becomes much lower. This uncertainty is partly due to a conveyor belt of tropical storms or hurricanes that look like developing between western Africa and the Caribbean.

Weather models can struggle with how the remnants of these tropical features will interact with the weather nearer to the UK. Currently, we favour warmth to moderate but with high pressure remaining near to the UK. Therefore, any rain or showers should be interspersed by some lengthy periods of dry and settled weather. The north of the UK, in particular, looks like being generally drier compared to this week. However, there is a considerable risk that the high pressure area moves away more quickly than expected, which would bring a return to wetter and breezier conditions.


Monday 21 September – Sunday 4 October


Changeable conditions. Wet and cool at times.


Late September and the start of October are likely to see changeable weather conditions. Wet, breezy and cool conditions are likely to be interspersed by some drier and brighter days.
However, overall, late September is favoured to be wetter than average over the UK. Sustained periods of warm and dry weather currently appear unlikely. Into the start of October, there are signs that the low pressure track will push a bit further south.

Therefore, England and Wales look like still having episodes of wet, cool and windy weather. The best of the drier and brighter periods of weather by then are slightly favoured to be in Scotland and Northern Ireland. However, here we could start to see one or two night frosts under any clearer skies.  Confidence in the forecast details remains lower than usual. Weather models will continue to struggle to resolve the weather pattern over the UK and Europe at times, while an active Atlantic hurricane season continues.


Further ahead


We will be keeping an eye on the tropical cyclone activity over the Atlantic Ocean. This tropical activity could have impacts on the jet stream and our weather forecast for the month ahead.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Gavin D
11 September 2020 14:36:04

Wednesday 16 Sep - Friday 25 Sep


Mainly dry, settled weather seems likely to continue through the middle and perhaps the latter part of next week, bringing sunny spells. The best of these conditions will likely be found in the northwest. However, there is a chance of the odd thundery shower, more especially in southern and southwestern areas. Above average temperatures are likely for many locations and it could be very warm in the south, whilst the northeast may feel rather cold. Strong easterly winds many develop, particularly in southern and central areas. It is very uncertain how long this spell of more settled conditions will continue. There is potential to see more unsettled conditions becoming more widespread across the UK at times, bringing spells of wet and windy conditions with temperatures falling closer to average.


Saturday 26 Sep - Saturday 10 Oct


Confidence becomes very low by the start of this period, but a changeable few weeks looks most likely. The UK is likely to see alternating periods of relatively settled weather, bringing an increased risk of mist and fog in the morning, and more unsettled conditions, which would see typical autumnal wet and windy weather. Overall, temperatures are expected to average out during this period around or slightly above the normal. However, variations are to be expected as a result of the shifting weather systems, giving potential for both warm and cold spells.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Gavin D
12 September 2020 11:22:44

BBC monthly outlook


Summary


Changeable weather with long-range uncertainty


_________________________________


Saturday 12 September – Sunday 20 September


Briefly warm and dry, but rain likely later.


As a ridge of high pressure begins to build in eastern Europe this weekend, a couple of frontal waves will move across Scotland and Northern Ireland. This will bring some heavy rain for western Scotland along with strong winds at times. Further south though, it will be a mostly fine and dry weekend with some sunny spells and light winds.


By Monday, the high to the east will build enough to shift the winds for the UK to a southerly direction and push fronts off to the north. The result: a warm, dry, and mostly sunny couple of days. The warmth will likely peak on Tuesday in the south-east, with highs reaching into the upper-twenties. Although 30 Celsius is not completely out of the question, a lot of factors would all need to line up to get that warm.


As we start Wednesday, the high pressure to the east will begin to decline and shift away further east into Russia. This will cause us to lose our warm southerly winds and the temperatures will begin to moderate. At the same time, a cut-off low to our south-west will be able to drift slightly closer and will likely bring some rain later in the week to southern and south-western areas. By the following weekend, temperatures will have moderated to near-normal, but perhaps a touch cooler than normal for Scotland with north-east winds developing.


Monday 21 September – Sunday 27 September


Drier for most with rain at times in the south.


As we enter the last full week of September, we should see a large-scale pattern shift in the weather across northern Europe. High pressure is expected to build across the north of the continent, including the UK, which will keep things more settled and drier. However, temperatures will stay near or a bit below normal with an easterly or north-easterly breeze across the North Sea. Expect some cloudier conditions on eastern coasts at times too, especially in Scotland.


While we expect the high pressure to stick around throughout the week, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast since the UK is sat right on the edge of the high. Low pressure in France and Spain will occasionally bring some rain into southern areas during the week, but this will likely be more an exception than the rule. However, there is a risk that high pressure will be further east and low pressure could become more dominant.


The strong high is in part due to plenty of warm air from tropical storm Paulette, currently in the tropical Atlantic. This is contributing to the high degree of uncertainty in the forecast, so confidence is low for this week.


Monday 28 September – Sunday 11 October


Changeable weather, but often unsettled.


By the end of September and into October, the forecast becomes trickier. In recent weeks, the computer models have been unusually poor at this range. This is mainly due to the extremely active Atlantic hurricane season this year, as these storms are so large and powerful, they can have downstream effects on the weather pattern over Europe, thousands of miles away!


In general, we expect the high pressure from late September to gradually shift east and allow low pressure to become the more dominant feature into October. However, high pressure will often be lurking nearby in the Atlantic or central Europe, so the wettest and windier weather will tend to be in the northern half of the country. Occasional fronts will still bring some rain to everyone though, but southern areas will likely be a bit drier than normal.


The downside is that all this comes with the rather large caveat that if any tropical cyclones from the Atlantic influence our weather pattern, high pressure becomes more likely. So again, confidence is quite low at the moment, with a chance that a high pressure system could develop to the west or overhead and bring some drier weather. Atlantic hurricane season peaks in September and October, so we will likely continue to see storms well into mid-October.


Further ahead


As we continue to watch Atlantic hurricane activity, next week we will have a closer look into high pressure and drier weather for late September.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Gavin D
12 September 2020 14:30:36

Thursday 17 Sep - Saturday 26 Sep


Mainly dry, settled weather seems likely to continue through the middle and perhaps the latter part of next week, bringing sunny spells. The best of these conditions will likely be found in the northwest. However, there is a chance of the odd thundery shower, more especially in southern and southwestern areas. Above average temperatures are likely for many locations and it could be very warm in the south, whilst the northeast may feel rather cold. Strong easterly winds many develop, particularly in southern and central areas. It is very uncertain how long this spell of more settled conditions will continue. There is potential to see more unsettled conditions becoming more widespread across the UK at times, bringing spells of wet and windy conditions with temperatures falling closer to average.


Sunday 27 Sep - Sunday 11 Oct


Confidence becomes very low by the start of this period, but a changeable few weeks looks most likely. The UK is likely to see alternating periods of relatively settled weather, bringing an increased risk of mist and fog in the morning, and more unsettled conditions, which would see typical autumnal wet and windy weather. Overall, temperatures are expected to average out during this period around or slightly above the normal. However, variations are to be expected as a result of the shifting weather systems, giving potential for both warm and cold spells.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Gavin D
13 September 2020 14:46:03

Friday 18 Sep - Sunday 27 Sep


Mainly dry, settled weather seems likely to continue through the middle and perhaps the latter part of next week, bringing sunny spells. The best of these conditions will likely be found in the northwest. However, there is a chance of the odd thundery shower, more especially in southern and southwestern areas. Above average temperatures are likely for many locations and it could be very warm in the south, whilst the northeast may feel rather cold. Strong easterly winds many develop, particularly in southern and central areas. It is very uncertain how long this spell of more settled conditions will continue. There is potential to see more unsettled conditions becoming more widespread across the UK at times, bringing spells of wet and windy conditions with temperatures falling closer to average.


Monday 28 Sep - Monday 12 Oct


Confidence becomes very low by the start of this period, but a changeable few weeks looks most likely. The UK is likely to see alternating periods of relatively settled weather, bringing an increased risk of mist and fog in the morning, and more unsettled conditions, which would see typical autumnal wet and windy weather. Overall, temperatures are expected to average out during this period around or slightly above the normal. However, variations are to be expected as a result of the shifting weather systems, giving potential for both warm and cold spells.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

redmoons
14 September 2020 17:32:44
Northern hemisphere breaks record for hottest ever summer.

"June, July and August were 1.17C (2.11F) above the 20th-century average, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa)."

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/sep/14/northern-hemisphere-record-hottest-summer-noaa 
Andrew,
Watford
ASL 35m
http://weather.andrewlalchan.co.uk 





Gavin D
15 September 2020 14:05:43

Sunday 20 Sep - Tuesday 29 Sep


Remaining mainly dry with sunny spells and light winds for most parts on Sunday and into the start of next week. Any isolated mist and fog patches in the north each morning quickly clearing. However, the far south and southwest will remain breezy with possible thundery showers. Temperatures around average for many though probably warm in the south. A spell of wet and windy conditions likely to arrive in the northwest on Tuesday. Through the rest of the week confidence is low with the most likely scenario a transition to more unsettled conditions. Some longer spells of rain or showers for a time are likely, the rain could be heavy in places, wettest and windiest in the north and west. Temperatures around average, possibly turning rather cold in the north.


Wednesday 30 Sep - Wednesday 14 Oct


Confidence remains low for this period. It seems likely that there could be changeable conditions with alternating periods of relatively settled weather, bringing an increased risk of mist and fog in the morning, and more unsettled conditions. The best of any settled spells will be in the south and there is a signal that these could become more prolonged during early October. Overall, temperatures are expected to be around or slightly above the normal. However, variations are to be expected as a result of the shifting weather systems, giving potential for both warm and cold spells.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Gavin D
17 September 2020 14:36:47

Tuesday 22 Sep - Thursday 1 Oct


Remaining mainly dry on Tuesday, with sunny spells and light winds for most. Some isolated mist and fog patches in the south and east to start but quickly clearing. However, wet and windy conditions in the northwest will tend to spread a little further southeastward and there is a chance of showers, possibly heavy, in the south. Through the rest of the week the transition to more unsettled conditions looks likely to continue spreading southeastward across the country. Some longer spells of rain or showers for a time are likely, the rain could be heavy in places, wettest and windiest in the north and west. Despite this, there are still likely to be some drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures around average, possibly turning rather cold in the north and northwest.


Friday 2 Oct - Friday 16 Oct


Confidence remains low for this period. It seems most likely that it will be changeable, with alternating periods of relatively settled weather bringing an increased risk of mist and fog in the morning, and more unsettled conditions. The best of any settled spells will be in the south and there is a signal that these could become more prolonged during early October. Overall, temperatures are expected to be around or slightly above the normal. However, variations are to be expected as a result of the shifting weather systems, giving potential for both warm and cold spells.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Gavin D
18 September 2020 14:24:02

Wednesday 23 Sep - Friday 2 Oct


A largely unsettled picture looking ahead through the forecast period. A band of rain and showers is expected to move eastward across the country through Wednesday, bringing strengthening winds and possibly gales later in the west. Generally windy conditions coupled with further spells of rain and showers will continue through the rest of the week and likely into the following week too, heaviest most probable in the north and northeast which may also see gales at times. Meanwhile there may still be brief interludes of drier and sunnier weather, most likely perhaps in the south and southwest. Temperatures will generally be cool and overnight frost may be seen in prone parts of the north as and when calmer spells of weather allow.


Saturday 3 Oct - Saturday 17 Oct


The early part of October is looking to be a cool and unsettled period at first. Overall, southern parts may see the most of dry and brighter spells whilst the wettest and windiest weather will be most likely across the north and northwest. Later in the month, conditions may generally begin to settle down and temperatures may nudge back towards average or slightly above average for the time of year, though with significant variation between warm and cool spells. Morning fog and patchy frost may also become more prevalent towards mid-month.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Gavin D
19 September 2020 10:00:16

BBC monthly outlook


Summary


Wettest and windiest in the north


_________________________________


Wednesday 16 September – Sunday 20 September


Largely dry and settled. Easterly wind in south


Extensive high pressure over central and eastern Europe, along with a slow moving area of low pressure to the west of Portugal have brought summery weather to England and Wales in recent days. We have seen temperatures close to 30C in south-eastern England. However, a change in location of high pressure is set to occur during the rest of this week, pulling in winds from a less warm north-easterly direction. We say goodbye to the impressive warmth of recent days, but there will still be a great deal of dry and settled weather across the country.
After the prolonged heavy rain over western Scotland last week, the second half of this week will see plenty of dry and calm weather.

Low pressure will deepen over France and Spain by Friday and Saturday, pushing some cloud and a few isolated showers northwards into southern England. This low pressure area will also strengthen easterly winds over the southern half of the UK, especially during the weekend. Temperatures will still reach the mid-20Cs over southern England on Wednesday.
But for the rest of the week, the maximum temperatures will be in the low 20Cs in the south and the high teens in the north.


Monday 21 September – Sunday 27 September


Westerly winds returning, with rain for all of us


As we enter the last full week of September, Monday 21st should be dry, calm and settled in many areas. High pressure over the UK and a low pressure area over France will slip away taking any showers with it. The brisk easterly breeze across southern England will have eased. A significant change to the weather pattern is expected by the middle of next week. An intensifying jet stream over the north Atlantic, fuelled by the remnants of Hurricane Sally, over the south-eastern USA, will sweep in a new round of low pressure areas.

This is similar to the weather pattern during late August and early September, when the westerlies were strong and sustained over northern parts of the UK. Once again, the wettest weather and strongest winds will affect the northern half of the UK, particularly Northern Ireland and Scotland. There is the possibility for a burst of gale force westerly winds here on Tuesday and Wednesday, although the detail will need to be refined as we get nearer the time. A dip in temperature is expected after mid-week as well, as winds flick around to the west and north-west, pushing the warmer air in the south away into France. While the south will see some rain or showers during the middle of the week, it does seem that by the weekend of September 26th and 27th, a ridge of high pressure will build in from the south and bring a return to drier, sunnier, calmer conditions.


Monday 28 September – Sunday 11 October


Changeable weather. Wettest and windiest in north


By the end of September and into October, the forecast becomes trickier. In recent weeks, the computer models have been unusually poor at this range. This is mainly due to the extremely active Atlantic hurricane season this year. As these storms are so large and powerful, they can have downstream effects on the weather pattern over Europe. The most likely weather pattern for much of the time will be for a conveyor belt of low pressure areas to track close to Scotland and then into Scandinavia. As a result, further drier than average conditions seem likely over southern parts of the UK, especially southern England and south Wales.

The north will have some drier interludes, as transient high pressure ridges move eastwards. But overall, we can expect some spells of rain and brisk westerly winds to also be in the mix. Temperatures will be variable. One thing that needs watching out for is the prospect of an ex-hurricane from the Atlantic tropics making its way towards the UK, as a potent autumn wind storm. Such systems can introduce severe gales and heavy rain, especially over northern and western parts of the UK. We saw this with ex-Hurricane Ophelia in October 2017, which brought very strong and damaging winds to parts of Ireland.

However, on the flip side, if the track of an ex-Hurricane remains well to the west or south-west of the UK, we will see a large area of high pressure building up over the UK for a week or so, perhaps even longer. The days can be warm and fine, but it can turn distinctly chilly overnight, with some localised air frost. This was a common occurrence in October 2016, which was a very dry and calm month across the country.


Further ahead


We will see if the recent rash of Atlantic Hurricane activity will continue into October and how this may shape the October weather pattern over the UK.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Gavin D
19 September 2020 14:09:21

Thursday 24 Sep - Saturday 3 Oct


A largely unsettled picture looking ahead through the forecast period, starting with showers and longer spells of rain on Thursday. Generally windy conditions coupled with spells of rain and showers will continue through the week and likely into the following week too, with those showers becoming heavy and blustery at times. The heaviest rain most likely in the north and northwest which may also see gales at times. Meanwhile there may still be brief interludes of drier and sunnier weather, most likely perhaps in the south and southwest. Temperatures will generally be rather cool, potentially cooler in more persistent rainfall, and overnight frost may be seen in prone parts of the north as and when calmer spells of weather allow.


Sunday 4 Oct - Sunday 18 Oct


The early part of October is looking to be a cool and unsettled period at first. Overall, southern parts may see the most of dry and brighter spells whilst the wettest and windiest weather will be most likely across the north and northwest. Later in the month, conditions may generally begin to settle down and temperatures may nudge back towards average or slightly above average for the time of year, though with significant variation between warm and cool spells. Morning fog and patchy frost may also become more prevalent towards mid-month.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Gavin D
20 September 2020 14:23:44

Friday 25 Sep - Sunday 4 Oct


It is set to be a continued unsettled picture looking ahead through the forecast period. Generally windy conditions coupled with spells of rain and showers will continue through the weekend and likely into the following week as well, with those showers becoming heavy and blustery at times. The heaviest rain most likely in the north and northeast, which may also see gales at times. Meanwhile, there may still be brief interludes of drier and sunnier weather, most likely in the south and southwest. Temperatures will generally be rather cool, potentially cooler in more persistent rainfall, and overnight frost may be seen in prone parts of the north as and when calmer spells of weather allow.


Monday 5 Oct - Monday 19 Oct


During the early part of October, a cool and unsettled period is likely. Overall, southern parts may see the most of any dry and brighter spells, whilst the wettest and windiest weather will be most likely across the north and northwest. Towards the middle of the month, conditions may begin to settle down and temperatures may nudge back towards average or slightly above average for the time of year, though with significant variation between warmer and colder spells. Morning fog and patchy frost may also become more prevalent towards mid-month.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Gavin D
21 September 2020 14:02:55

Saturday 26 Sep - Monday 5 Oct


The coming weekend will see a brief period of drier weather on Saturday, though it will be cold with grass frost possible widely. Looking further ahead however, it is set to return to an unsettled picture. Generally windy weather coupled with spells of rain and showers will likely continue through next week, with those showers becoming heavy and blustery at times. The heaviest rain most likely in the north and northwest, which may also see gales at times. Meanwhile, there may still be brief interludes of drier and sunnier weather, most likely in the south and southeast. Temperatures will generally be rather cool, potentially cooler in more persistent rainfall, and overnight frost may be seen in prone parts of the north as and when calmer spells of weather allow.


Tuesday 6 Oct - Tuesday 20 Oct


Further into October, conditions may begin to settle down and temperatures may nudge back towards average or slightly above average for the time of year, though with significant variation between warmer and colder spells. Morning fog and patchy frost may also become more prevalent towards mid-month.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

nsrobins
22 September 2020 08:15:23
And as a salient reminder of the fragility of long range products, here is the forecast for the week from 10 days ago:

‘ Monday 21 September – Sunday 27 September

Drier for most with rain at times in the south.

As we enter the last full week of September, we should see a large-scale pattern shift in the weather across northern Europe. High pressure is expected to build across the north of the continent, including the UK, which will keep things more settled and drier. However, temperatures will stay near or a bit below normal with an easterly or north-easterly breeze across the North Sea. Expect some cloudier conditions on eastern coasts at times too, especially in Scotland.

While we expect the high pressure to stick around throughout the week, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast since the UK is sat right on the edge of the high. Low pressure in France and Spain will occasionally bring some rain into southern areas during the week, but this will likely be more an exception than the rule. However, there is a risk that high pressure will be further east and low pressure could become more dominant.’

Whoops 😅
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gavin D
22 September 2020 19:04:59

Sunday 27 Sep - Tuesday 6 Oct


A brief period of drier weather on Sunday, though it will be cool with a ground frost possible even in the south. Into the start of next week, it is set to return to an unsettled picture. Generally windy weather coupled with showers and occasional longer spells of rain. The heaviest rain most likely in the north and northwest, which may also see gales at times. Although in the east and southeast, there may still be brief interludes of drier and sunnier weather. Temperatures will generally be rather cool, potentially cooler in more persistent rainfall, and overnight frost may be seen in prone parts of the north as and when calmer spells of weather allow.


Wednesday 7 Oct - Wednesday 21 Oct


Further into October, conditions are likely to remain unsettled for most. The most unsettled conditions being in southern areas. Generally windy with a chance of gales however the risk of gales reduces later in the period. Feeling cool throughout with a risk of overnight frost. Lighter winds means that morning fog patches may also become more prevalent towards mid-month.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Users browsing this topic

Ads