Wednesday 22 Jul - Friday 31 Jul

Wednesday looks fine and dry in the south with plenty of sunny spells on offer. Showers affecting northern parts will probably ease, being replaced by thicker cloud, more persistent rain and stronger winds. Temperatures on the warm side in the south, but slightly below average further north. As we head towards the weekend it looks like there will be transition to more unsettled conditions, starting in the north and west, but extending further south and east later. This brings rain and strong winds to many parts of the UK. There will be periods of calmer and more settled weather during the following week, especially further south and east, though unseasonally wet and windy conditions will likely return frequently. Temperatures around average, with any warm spells most likely in the south.

Saturday 1 Aug - Saturday 15 Aug

Confidence is low, but August currently appears to be a mix of dry and settled conditions, interspersed with occasional periods of wetter and windier weather. The most unsettled weather will most likely be in the north and west, though it will probably spread further south and east from time to time. Temperatures look like continuing to stick around normal, with any particularly warm weather being short-lived and only expected in the south. Signs are tentative, but there may be an overall more general trend towards widely dry and settled conditions come the middle of August.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Not sure what the record is but +50c is a little too extreme for residents living in Death Valley?

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/death-valley/92384/daily-weather-forecast/2258469?day=2 

Currently 45c in Las Vegas Nevada, as well as Phoenix AZ @ 18:00

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Please tell your wife that I won’t. Also, please tell her that I’m not overly fussed with what she thinks 🤪😎👋 ☀️ https://t.co/8IIB1kjvxG

— Tomasz Schafernaker (@Schafernaker) July 19, 2020

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Not sure what the record is but +50c is a little too extreme for residents living in Death Valley?

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/death-valley/92384/daily-weather-forecast/2258469?day=2

Currently 45c in Las Vegas Nevada, as well as Phoenix AZ @ 18:00

I think 50C is reached most summers in Death Valley. In the meantime, the east coast is also experiencing extreme heat and humidity,

https://www.crainsnewyork.com/weather/new-york-endures-most-sweltering-heat-summer

It seems like the USA and Russia are where the heat is this summer.

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I think 50C is reached most summers in Death Valley. In the meantime, the east coast is also experiencing extreme heat and humidity,

https://www.crainsnewyork.com/weather/new-york-endures-most-sweltering-heat-summer

It seems like the USA and Russia are where the heat is this summer.

Yes, although 26c here today in Exeter was fine!

it's already 43c in Death Valley and it's only 10:00 am

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/death-valley/92384/weather-forecast/2258469

 

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Sunday 26 Jul - Tuesday 4 Aug

The unsettled theme seems likely to continue through Sunday. After early rain clears from the east, showers, interspersed with sunny spells, look to spread to most areas of the UK. These could turn heavy and blustery at times with the risk of some hail and thunder too. A similar picture seems likely for the rest of the period, and although there will probably be short spells of more settled weather further periods of rain and strong winds are expected to return as well. It will probably be wettest in the north and northwest with the best of any drier weather further south. Temperatures are most likely to be below average, with any warm spells most likely confined to the southeast.

Tuesday 4 Aug - Tuesday 18 Aug

Confidence is low, but the first half of August is likely to see a mixture of dry and settled conditions, interspersed with occasional periods of wetter and windier weather. The majority of the unsettled weather will most likely be in the north and west, though it may spread further south and east from time to time. Temperatures are likely to be around the average for this time of year, with any particularly warm weather being short-lived and generally towards the south. Looking further ahead into mid-August, there are some tentative signs that conditions could become more widely dry and settled.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Monday 27 Jul - Wednesday 5 Aug

The unsettled theme seems likely to continue through the beginning of the period with scattered showers, and strong winds interspersed with sunny spells across much of the country. A similar picture seems likely to persist through the rest of the period, though there is likely to become more settled for a short time towards the end of July before there is a return to periods of rain and strong winds are expected to return as well. It will probably be wettest in the north and northwest with the best of any drier weather further south. It is generally likely to be on the cool side for much of the country with any warmer spells more likely across southeastern parts.

Wednesday 5 Aug - Wednesday 19 Aug

Confidence is low, but the first half of August is likely to see a mixture of dry and settled conditions, interspersed with occasional bouts of wetter and windier weather. The majority of the unsettled weather will most likely be in the north and west, though it may spread further south and east from time to time. Temperatures are likely to be around the average for this time of year, with any particularly warm weather being short-lived and generally towards the south. Looking further ahead into mid-August, there are some tentative signs that conditions could become more widely dry and settled.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Remaining changeable heading into August

_________________________________

Wednesday 22 July – Wednesday 26 August

An unsettled end to the week

This week so far has been fairly dry and sunny across the south of the UK with temperatures getting into the low to mid-twenties Celsius in the warmest areas. Meanwhile, the northern half of the country has seen some showers and rain, and it this wetter weather will become more of a feature across the whole of the country during the second half of this week. Wednesday will see a low pressure system moving across the north of the country. This low will bring outbreaks of rain to many areas of Scotland and Northern Ireland with some more persistent rain possible over the West Highlands.

Some outbreaks of rain are also likely over northern England and parts of north Wales. Meanwhile, the Midlands, south Wales and southern England should escape with another dry and bright day with some nice sunny spells. Thursday will see showers and rain affecting many areas of the country as a cold front pushes southwards. A brief spell of calmer, drier weather looks likely to most on Friday, but the weekend promises another Atlantic low and another spell of wet and very breezy, locally windy weather. With regard to temperatures, it has been a little cooler than normal for the time of year this week and we've had some cool nights. Temperatures are likely to fluctuate around normal over the second part of the week, perhaps remaining a little cooler than normal.

Thursday 27 August – Sunday 2 August

Changeable but with big regional differences

The weather looks fairly unsettled through most of next week as low pressure systems track close to or over the UK at times. However, high pressure lying over mainland Europe is likely to extend a little further north at times. As a result, we can probably expect similar conditions to that expected in the second half of this week i.e. some wet weather but interspersed with some drier and sunny spells interludes too. One of the main patterns we see is that there could be a notable split in the weather across the UK.

The north and west look likely to be wetter and windier than average for the time of year. Meanwhile, the south and east are more likely to see rainfall near normal with lighter winds. The south and east are also likely to see the best of any sunny weather and as a result should see temperatures nearest to normal, and perhaps a little above normal at times if we get any continental air feeding in from the south. The north and west will probably be a bit cooler than normal. Whilst the above doesn't look too much like summer weather, there is a chance that we'll see high pressure expanding further northwards across the UK than expected. If that happens then more of the country will see drier and sunnier weather, and there could be a spell of very warm weather too.

Monday 3 August – Sunday 16 August

Drier for a time but further unsettled weather to

The first full week of August should bring a bit of a break to the unsettled weather, but it looks to be only a temporary break with the weather turning more unsettled again heading towards mid-month. We currently don't see any sustained dry, sunny weather in August. Whilst low pressure systems are expected to be a major feature of the weather at the end of July and start of August, there are indications that as we move a little further into August, low pressure will become less of an influence. The UK should become less unsettled and there will be a better chance of drier, sunnier and warmer weather. However, we expect a return to more unsettled weather for the middle of the month.

Low pressure systems are again expected to track close to or over the UK, with the weather likely to be wetter, windier and cooler again. As with the end of July, there will be the chance of high pressure ridging up from the south to bring some spells of warmer and more settled weather to the UK. The south is most favoured to see any of this drier and warmer weather.
Whist confidence in the forecast has generally increased a little since our last update, we are still keeping a close eye on developments in the tropical Atlantic. Whilst it has been relatively quiet here in the last couple of weeks, there are still indications that this will be an active hurricane season. Tropical storms and hurricanes tend to make forecasting more than a week or two ahead a tricky job. That means that there is the chance that the forecast for the middle of August could change a fair bit over the next week or so.

Further ahead

Will the forecast for August still lack any sustained dry and sunny periods or will a tropical storm intervene?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

As is often the case, once the summer weather pattern is set in early June, it is very difficult to break it. Definitely a case of looking south and east if you are planning a UK holiday and want some decent weather. What's the betting that we get a warm, sunny spell UK wide in early September?

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As is often the case, once the summer weather pattern is set in early June, it is very difficult to break it. Definitely a case of looking south and east if you are planning a UK holiday and want some decent weather. What's the betting that we get a warm, sunny spell UK wide in early September?

I did mention back in June that I was fairly concerned for the summer pattern ahead as I am a big advocate of the pattern setting up in June and sticking around.

It has not been anywhere near as wet as I thought it would be, but the pattern has been largely changeable and cool, and this is kind of what I anticipated from early June onwards.

Its very seldom in my opinion that a summer recovers from a relatively poor start, and I firmly believe summer 2020 will go down as average to just below average overall.

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I did mention back in June that I was fairly concerned for the summer pattern ahead as I am a big advocate of the pattern setting up in June and sticking around.

It has not been anywhere near as wet as I thought it would be, but the pattern has been largely changeable and cool, and this is kind of what I anticipated from early June onwards.

Its very seldom in my opinion that a summer recovers from a relatively poor start, and I firmly believe summer 2020 will go down as average to just below average overall.

This summer for me has been typical of a number of summer we had in the 1980s prior to 1989. As you have said, cool and changeable although not overly wet. What has made it seem poor I think was the excellent spell we enjoyed from late March through April and May into the start of June.

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Tuesday 28 Jul - Thursday 6 Aug

The unsettled theme seems likely to continue through the beginning of the period with scattered showers, and strong winds interspersed with sunny spells across much of the country. A similar picture seems likely to persist through the rest of the period, though there is likely to become more settled for a short time towards the end of July before there is a return to periods of rain and strong winds are expected to return as well. It will probably be wettest in the north and northwest with the best of any drier weather further south. It is generally likely to be on the cool side for much of the country with any warmer spells more likely across southeastern parts.

Thursday 6 Aug - Thursday 20 Aug

Confidence is low, but the first half of August is likely to see a mixture of dry and settled conditions, interspersed with occasional bouts of wetter and windier weather. The majority of the unsettled weather will most likely be in the north and west, though it may spread further south and east from time to time. Temperatures are likely to be around the average for this time of year, with any particularly warm weather being short-lived and generally towards the south. Looking further ahead into mid-August, there are some tentative signs that conditions could become more widely dry and settled.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Wednesday 29 Jul - Friday 7 Aug

The unsettled theme seems likely to continue through the last few days of July, with showers and variable cloud, with the driest and sunniest weather in the south and southwest. Into early August, it will remain unsettled with the wettest conditions and greatest likelihood of prolonged rainfall in the west and southwest. Sunshine and showers will be most probable further north. Strong winds are also likely across many areas. There could be a brief interlude of more settled weather bringing some dry weather to some parts, but confidence in this remains low. It is generally likely to be on the cool side for much of the country with temperatures nearest to normal in the south and southeast.

Saturday 8 Aug - Saturday 22 Aug

Confidence is low, but the second week of August is likely to see a mixture of dry and settled conditions, interspersed with occasional bouts of wetter and windier weather. The majority of the unsettled weather will most likely be in the north and west, though it may spread further south and east from time to time. Temperatures are likely to be around the average for this time of year, with any particularly warm weather being short-lived and generally towards the south or southeast. Looking further ahead into late-August, there are some tentative signs that conditions could become more widely dry and settled, particularly in the southeast.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Wednesday 29 Jul - Friday 7 Aug

The unsettled theme seems likely to continue through the last few days of July, with showers and variable cloud, with the driest and sunniest weather in the south and southwest. Into early August, it will remain unsettled with the wettest conditions and greatest likelihood of prolonged rainfall in the west and southwest. Sunshine and showers will be most probable further north. Strong winds are also likely across many areas. There could be a brief interlude of more settled weather bringing some dry weather to some parts, but confidence in this remains low. It is generally likely to be on the cool side for much of the country with temperatures nearest to normal in the south and southeast.

Saturday 8 Aug - Saturday 22 Aug

Confidence is low, but the second week of August is likely to see a mixture of dry and settled conditions, interspersed with occasional bouts of wetter and windier weather. The majority of the unsettled weather will most likely be in the north and west, though it may spread further south and east from time to time. Temperatures are likely to be around the average for this time of year, with any particularly warm weather being short-lived and generally towards the south or southeast. Looking further ahead into late-August, there are some tentative signs that conditions could become more widely dry and settled, particularly in the southeast.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

These updates are generally pretty gash and when you weigh up the potential for a couple of hot days around the month end it proves the point (if it verifies)

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A changeable month of weather

_________________________________

Saturday 25 July – Sunday 2 August

Unsettled at first, then potentially hot for some

This weekend, much of the UK will be breezy with showers and some longer outbreaks of rain. One or two thunderstorms are possible, too, most likely during Saturday afternoon. However, there will be sunnier interludes as well, with the best of these during Sunday. Temperatures mostly near to the average although staying cool in the northwest.

The unsettled theme will continue into the early part of next week. Many areas will see further showers or longer outbreaks of rain with brisk winds at times. Staying cool for many, too, although the south-east may tap into some warmth at times.

A change in weather then appears likely from around Wednesday to Friday as an area of high pressure crosses the country from the west. Most areas should have at least two or three drier and somewhat calmer days. We are also likely to import warmer air from the near-continent by Friday.

There is the potential for one or two significantly hotter days around Friday and Saturday. The highest probability for a mini-heatwave appears to be in the southeast, where temperature may reach around 30C for a time. However, any strong heat should not last too long. Indications are for cooler, wetter and breezier conditions to return from the west by the end of the weekend.

Monday 3 August – Sunday 9 August

Cool, wet and breezy at times

The changeable weather conditions are likely to persist into the first full week of August. Low pressure areas passing to the north are likely to bring cool, wet and breezy weather at times. Most areas should have some showers or longer outbreaks of rain. Overall, rainfall amounts are favoured to be above average in most areas with temperatures near to a little below average.However, there should also be at least one or two drier and calmer days as high pressure areas briefly move over the country. The best chance for some drier and calmer weather currently appears to be later in the week.

Monday 10 August – Sunday 23 August

Gradually becoming a little drier and warmer

The changeable weather pattern looks like continuing into mid-August. We are likely to see further rain at times with occasionally brisk winds. However, transient high pressure ridges should also bring some drier, calmer and warmer days. Indications are that the drier and warmer days should become a little more numerous as we enter the second half of August. This is because we should see the track of low pressure areas lifting a little further away to the north of the UK. Rainfall amounts look like falling nearer average for many after mid-month and perhaps below-average over southern Britain.

However, confidence in the forecast becomes rather low as well after mid-month. There is a risk that low pressure continues to track over the UK, which would lead to a somewhat wetter and breezier outlook then. There is even a slight risk of one or two ex-hurricanes or tropical storms reaching our shores later in August. If this happens, it would bring the potential for one or two strong wind events in the north-west. However, this appears more of a risk as we enter autumn.

Further ahead

A changeable month of weather appears most likely through August. We will take another look to see if there are still signs of drier and warmer weather through the second half of the month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 30 Jul - Saturday 8 Aug

Thursday is likely to be fine, dry and warmer for most places. A brief very warm spell is likely for many areas at the end of this week with a good deal of sunshine, although increasing cloud may bring rain to northwestern areas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will probably bring a change to cooler, more changeable conditions from the west next weekend. Through early August changeable weather is likely to continue with bands of rain, perhaps accompanied by strong winds, interspersed with brighter, showery conditions. Wettest conditions are likely across western areas. However, all areas should have some dry spells, these most likely in the east. It is often likely to be on the cool side for western areas, but with temperatures closer to average across the east and southeast.

Saturday 8 Aug - Saturday 22 Aug

Confidence is low, but the second week of August is likely to see a mixture of dry and settled conditions, interspersed with occasional bouts of wetter and windier weather. The majority of the unsettled weather will most likely be in the north and west, though it may spread further south and east from time to time. Temperatures are likely to be around the average for this time of year, with any particularly warm weather being short-lived and generally towards the south or southeast. Looking further ahead into late-August, there are some tentative signs that conditions could become more widely dry and settled, particularly in the southeast.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Friday 31 Jul - Sunday 9 Aug

A brief very warm spell is likely for many areas at the end of this week with a good deal of sunshine, although increasing cloud may bring rain to the northwest. It may become hot in southeastern areas. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms will probably introduce cooler, more changeable conditions from the west next weekend. Through early August changeable weather is likely to continue with bands of rain, perhaps accompanied by strong winds, interspersed with brighter, showery conditions. However, all areas should have some dry spells, these most likely in the east, with a better chance of dry spells more generally late in the period. It is likely to be on the cool side for western areas, but with temperatures closer to average across the east and southeast.

Monday 10 Aug - Monday 24 Aug

Confidence is low, but the second week of August is likely to see a mixture of dry and settled conditions, interspersed with occasional bouts of wetter and windier weather. The majority of the unsettled weather will most likely be in the north and west, though it may spread further south and east from time to time. Temperatures are likely to be around the average for this time of year, with any particularly warm weather being short-lived and generally towards the south or southeast. Looking further ahead into late-August, there are some tentative signs that conditions could become more widely dry and settled, particularly in the southeast.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Good old Met Office, been pushing those "tentative signs" of widespread settled conditions since the end of June. Just like the signs of an easterly outbreak in winter that got pushed back and back before disappearing altogether!

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Good old Met Office, been pushing those "tentative signs" of widespread settled conditions since the end of June. Just like the signs of an easterly outbreak in winter that got pushed back and back before disappearing altogether!

Some interesting comments from the Met in this piece:

https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/5854791/scotland-weather-french-frazzle-july-coldest-summer-five-years/

 

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Saturday 1 Aug - Monday 10 Aug

A brief very warm spell is likely for many areas at the end of this week with a good deal of sunshine, although increasing cloud may bring rain to the northwest. It may become hot in southeastern areas. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms will probably introduce cooler, more changeable conditions from the west next weekend. Through early August changeable weather is likely to continue with bands of rain, perhaps accompanied by strong winds, interspersed with brighter, showery conditions. However, all areas should have some dry spells, these most likely in the east, with a better chance of dry spells more generally late in the period. It is likely to be on the cool side for western areas, but w

Tuesday 11 Aug - Tuesday 25 Aug

Confidence is low, but the second week of August is likely to see a mixture of dry and settled conditions, interspersed with occasional bouts of wetter and windier weather. The majority of the unsettled weather will most likely be in the north and west, though it may spread further south and east from time to time. Temperatures are likely to be around the average for this time of year, with any particularly warm weather being short-lived and generally towards the south or southeast. Looking further ahead into late-August, there are some tentative signs that conditions could become more widely dry and settled, particularly in the southeast.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/