Tuesday 5 May - Thursday 14 May

It is likely to be generally unsettled during the first week of May as Atlantic weather systems bring further bands of rain to many areas, particularly in the south and the west of the UK. There could also be some brighter and showery conditions inbetween these frontal systems. It is expected to be windy at times, especially along southern and western coastlines. The confidence towards the end of this period is low, but after the unsettled start to May, there could be a return of more settled conditions, bringing longer drier spells into the second week of May. Temperatures should be around average for the time of year, with some warmer days possible in the east or southeast.

Friday 15 May - Friday 29 May

Confidence through this period remains low, but from mid-May to the end of the month, there could well be a mix of conditions. There is likely to be some periods of changeable weather, with heavy rain and thundery showers, as well as some drier and sunnier periods. Temperatures look likely to be near or above average for the time of year, with rainfall below the average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Wednesday 6 May - Friday 15 May

The beginning of this period will be largely dry with light to moderate winds, and temperatures near average or slightly above, allowing pleasant sunny and bright spells for most. Rain most likely in western areas. The weather will likely turn more unsettled, with a gradual increase in spells of rain and showers for most, broken by brief sunny or bright spells. Winds may turn fresh or strong in some western regions with cooler temperatures in the north spreading throughout the UK. Although the heaviest rainfall will be in southern regions, the unsettled picture is set to continue until mid-month where there is a chance we could see some longer drier spells. However, this is more likely later in May - beyond this period.

Saturday 16 May - Saturday 30 May

Generally a largely unsettled picture is set to continue, with periods of rain and showers broken by some brighter spells whilst staying on the cooler side. The heaviest rain is expected in the south. Towards the end of May, there is an increasing chance of longer, drier spells, with temperatures also turning warmer.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A mixed month of weather - wetter than April

_________________________________

Monday 4 May – Sunday 10 May

Turning drier and warmer for time

After an often dry and sunny April, cooler and much more showery weather has returned in recent days. This weekend, much of the UK will see fewer showers than in recent days. Many areas will have some bright or sunny intervals. However, a few showers will remain in Scotland and eastern and northeast England. Through Saturday night and Sunday, thicker cloud may bring patchy rain to the far southwest of England as well. Temperatures will be mostly near to the seasonal average this weekend albeit still with rather cold nights in Scotland where a patchy frost is possible.

Early next week, we will see a battleground between high pressure to the north of the UK and a low pressure to the southwest. It looks like the low pressure area will bring breezier conditions to the south with rain for a time. However, the northern half of the UK should stay mostly dry. From around Wednesday to Friday next week, it looks as though high pressure will become the dominant feature. Therefore, much of the UK will become dry and warmer with periods of sunshine and easing winds. Temperatures should climb into the low 20s Celsius in places. By the weekend of 9th and 10th May, temperatures are expected to fall closer to average as cooler air spreads from the northeast. However, there should continue to be a lot of dry weather until the end of the week.

Monday 11 May – Sunday 17 May

Turning breezier, chillier and showery

As we head into the middle part of the month, we are likely to see another change in the weather pattern. High pressure looks like moving further away to the northwest and this should open the door to chillier north or north-easterly winds. Much of the UK can expect a generally cooler and breezier week with showers. It may be cold enough for occasional snow showers over the hills and mountains of Scotland. One or two night frosts are favoured too where skies clear during the nights, albeit most likely over the northern half of the UK. There is a chance that high pressure could return later in the week, which would bring drier and calmer conditions again. However, most likely is for a generally cooler and more showery week.

Monday 18 May – Sunday 31 May

Rain giving way to a drier and warmer weather

The second half of May is likely to continue seeing a highly variable pattern of weather. Indications are for wet and windy weather at times in the third week of May. However, temperatures should return nearer the average as the northerly winds ease, perhaps giving way to milder south-westerly winds instead. By the last week of May, there are indications for a change to drier and calmer conditions again.

It looks like high pressure may become much more dominant across the country, bringing more settled weather. In the sunshine, it should become rather warm. However, under any clear skies, the nights can still be quite chilly at times in May. There is low confidence regarding the details of the forecast in the second half of the month. However, it appears likely we are in for a much more variable month of weather compared to April.

Further ahead

We will take another look to see if we can still expect a return to some spring sunshine later in the month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 7 May - Saturday 16 May

The beginning of this period will be largely dry with light to moderate winds, and temperatures near average or slightly above, allowing pleasant sunny and bright spells for most. Rain most likely in western areas. The weather will likely turn more unsettled, with a gradual increase in spells of rain and showers for most, broken by brief sunny or bright spells. Winds may turn fresh or strong in some western regions with cooler temperatures in the north spreading throughout the UK. Although the heaviest rainfall will be in southern regions, the unsettled picture is set to continue until mid-month where there is a chance we could see some longer drier spells. However, this is more likely later in May - beyond this period.

Sunday 17 May - Sunday 31 May

Generally a largely unsettled picture is set to continue, with periods of rain and showers broken by some brighter spells whilst staying on the cooler side. The heaviest rain is expected in the south. Towards the end of May, there is an increasing chance of longer, drier spells, with temperatures also turning warmer.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

That latest Met Office outlook must be northern blocking and would give an awful month for the south. North west Scotland sounds like the place to be for most of May. From a NIMBY perspective I'm hoping that the BBC outlook is more accurate.

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Friday 8 May - Sunday 17 May

The beginning of this period will be largely dry with light to moderate winds, and temperatures near average or slightly above, allowing pleasant sunny and bright spells for most. Rain most likely in western areas. The weather will likely turn more unsettled, with a gradual increase in spells of rain and showers for most, broken by brief sunny or bright spells. Winds may turn fresh or strong in some western regions with cooler temperatures in the north spreading throughout the UK. Although the heaviest rainfall will be in southern regions, the unsettled picture is set to continue until mid-month where there is a chance we could see some longer drier spells. However, this is more likely later in May - beyond this period.

Monday 18 May - Monday 1 Jun

Generally a largely unsettled picture is set to continue, with periods of rain and showers broken by some brighter spells whilst staying on the cooler side. The heaviest rain is expected in the south. Towards the end of May, there is an increasing chance of longer, drier spells, with temperatures also turning warmer.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Saturday 9 May - Monday 18 May

The beginning of this period will be largely dry with light to moderate winds, and temperatures near average or slightly above, allowing pleasant sunny and bright spells for most. Rain most likely in western areas. The weather will likely turn more unsettled, with a gradual increase in spells of rain and showers for most, broken by brief sunny or bright spells. Winds may turn fresh or strong in some western regions with cooler temperatures in the north spreading throughout the UK. Although the heaviest rainfall will be in southern regions, the unsettled picture is set to continue until mid-month. Towards the end of the period there is a chance we could see some longer drier spells developing.

Tuesday 19 May - Tuesday 2 Jun

Generally a largely unsettled picture is set to continue, with periods of rain and showers broken by some brighter spells whilst staying on the cooler side. The heaviest rain is expected in the south. Towards the end of May, there is an increasing chance of longer, drier spells, with temperatures also turning warmer.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Sunday 10 May - Tuesday 19 May

The beginning of this period should be largely dry with cloudier skies and some patchy light rain here and there. A few longer spells of rain are possible across southern parts accompanied by strenghtening winds and a risk of gales along coasts. Drier and brighter conditions should develop across the country through the middle of the period, interspersed with sunny spells. However, parts of northern Scotland and southern England. may see periods of thicker cloud with spells of rain and strong winds at times throughout the forecast period. Feeling cold for most with a chance of frost overnight in rural spots. Some warmer weather may creep into the far south towards the end of the period.

Wednesday 20 May - Wednesday 3 Jun

After a largely dry and bright start to the period, more unsettled conditions are likely to arrive from the southwest towards the end of May. This will bring spells of rain or showers at times across southern and western areas. Eastern and southeastern areas are likely to see the best of any drier and brighter weather. After a cold start temperatures should recover to around normal towards the end of the period and it may feel warm at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Monday 11 May - Wednesday 20 May

The beginning of this period should be largely dry with cloudier skies and some patchy light rain here and there. A few longer spells of rain are possible across southern parts accompanied by strenghtening winds and a risk of gales along coasts. Drier and brighter conditions should develop across the country through the middle of the period, interspersed with sunny spells. However, parts of northern Scotland and southern England, may see periods of thicker cloud with spells of rain and strong winds at times throughout the forecast period. Feeling cold for most with a chance of frost overnight in rural spots. Some warmer weather may creep into the far south towards the end of the period.

Thursday 21 May - Thursday 4 Jun

After a largely dry and bright start to the period, more unsettled conditions are likely to arrive from the southwest towards the end of May. This will bring spells of rain or showers at times across southern and western areas. Eastern and southeastern areas are likely to see the best of any drier and brighter weather. After a cold start, temperatures should recover to around normal towards the end of the period and perhaps becoming warm at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Tuesday 12 May - Thursday 21 May

During the beginning of this period high pressure will dominate with most places seeing largely fine and dry conditions, with variable cloud and sunny spells. However, the far north and far south could see some thicker cloud with more organised rain at times, as well as strengthening winds and a risk of gales along coasts. Elsewhere winds will remain light. Temperatures below average with some overnight frosts across rural areas in the north but still feeling warm in sunshine. Through the middle and towards the end of the period, high pressure will continue to dominate bringing more of the fine weather and light winds across the UK. Temperatures should gradually return back to around average.

Friday 22 May - Friday 5 Jun

After a largely dry and bright start to the period, more unsettled conditions are likely to arrive from the southwest towards the end of May. This will bring spells of rain or showers at times across southern and western areas. Eastern and southeastern areas are likely to see the best of any drier and brighter weather. Temperatures around normal, perhaps becoming warm at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Met office CPF

April update

May to July

Temperature summary

For May-June-July as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for May-June-July will fall into the coldest of our five categories is between 5% and 10%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is between 50% and 55% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-mjj-v2.pdf

Precipitation summary

For May-June-July as a whole, below-average precipitation is more likely than above-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for May-June-July will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 30% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 10% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-mjj-v2.pdf

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Warm at times but occasionally showery

_________________________________

Wednesday 6 May – Sunday 10 May

Dry and warm for a time, then colder

Turning warmer through the remainder of the working week. As high pressure moves to the east of the UK, this will push warmer air in from the near-continent. Many areas will also have periods of sunshine through the coming days. However, there will be occasional showers for western and northern parts of the UK, possibly locally thundery. However, by Saturday, a cold front will approach from the north, heralding a change in the weather. The southern half of the UK should still be rather warm on Saturday with spells of sunshine. However, a few sharp showers look like developing through the afternoon.

Further north, the cold front will bring cloudier skies, cooler conditions and showery rain. By the end of the week we should see colder weather surging southwards across the UK. Temperatures are likely to fall from around 5 to 8C above average on Friday to nearer 5C below average by Sunday. A brisk north-easterly wind is likely to develop on Sunday, too, adding to the chill. Arctic air is also likely to bring scattered wintry showers to some north-eastern parts of the UK. There could be a dusting of snow even to low levels in northern Scotland early on Sunday morning.

Monday 11 May – Sunday 17 May

Breezy and cold at first, then calmer and dry

The second full week of May is likely to be rather cold at first with north or north-easterly winds. These winds are likely to bring showers near to north-facing coasts. Further inland and over southern areas of the UK, it should be largely dry but feeling cold in a brisk wind. By the middle part of the week, we expect high pressure to topple in from the northwest.

This area of high pressure should bring mostly dry and calmer conditions. Temperatures are likely to return nearer to the seasonal average. It should feel warmer with lighter winds for most. There is a risk that wetter and breezier weather spreads from the Atlantic into western and northern areas late in the week. However, many areas are favoured to hold onto drier and calmer conditions.

Monday 18 May – Sunday 31 May

Showery at times but turning warmer

The second half of May is likely to continue seeing a variable pattern of weather. In the third week of May, indications are for wetter and windier weather to develop in the northwest of the UK. Further south and east across the UK, rainfall is likely to be much more variable with hit and miss showers. Winds look like starting to develop from the south or south-west, so it should become a little warmer. By the last week of May, current indications are for a warmer and calmer pattern of weather quite widely over the UK.

However, it does not look like being completely dry. The warmth could spark a few heavy showers or thunderstorms in places amongst some decent drier and sunnier periods of weather. There is a risk, though, that fronts manage to push-in from the Atlantic. If this happens, it would end up being more frequently wet and also less warm.

Further ahead

Next Update: May looks like seeing a mixture of weather albeit with some warmth at times. Will this mixed pattern continue into the start of June? We will take a look.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Wednesday 13 May - Friday 22 May

To start the period, high pressure will dominate with most places seeing largely fine and dry conditions, with variable cloud and sunny spells. There could be a chance of rain and showers from the south at times, as well as in the far northwest. Light winds across most areas, however, the far northwest and south could turn windier at times with a risk of gales along coasts. Through the middle and towards the end of the period, high pressure will continue to dominate bringing more of the fine weather and light winds across the UK, especially in the east. Temperatures will continue to recover, but still feeling cold for most with a chance of frost overnight in rural spots. Could warm up in places towards the end of the period.

Saturday 23 May - Saturday 6 Jun

After a largely dry and bright start to the period, particularly in the east. More unsettled conditions are likely to arrive in the south from northward extending showers. There will also be outbreaks of rain and showers across the west and northwest from the weak Atlantic mobility. Winds remaining light through most of the period. Temperatures should be rather warm for most, although there could still be the odd chilly night with some frosts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Warm at times but occasionally showery

_________________________________

Saturday 9 May – Sunday 17 May

Breezy and cold for a time. Warmer later

This weekend will see a dramatic change in our weather as a cold front sweeps southwards across the UK. Saturday will be another warm day over England and Wales with periods of sunshine but a few locally sharp afternoon showers. Scotland and Northern Ireland will see rain and cooler conditions approaching from the north. After the clearance of a cold front, Sunday then looks set to be breezier and much chillier with brisk north-easterly winds. Temperatures will be up to 12 or 13C lower than Saturday's in some central and southern parts of Britain. Northern Scotland will even see a scattering of snow showers.

Next week will be rather cold at first with northerly winds. These winds are likely to bring showers near northern and eastern coasts. Further inland and over southern and western areas of the UK, it should be largely dry but feeling cold in a brisk wind. A touch of frost in places during the nights. By the middle part of the week, we expect high pressure to topple in from the northwest. This area of high pressure should bring mostly dry and calmer conditions. Temperatures are likely to return nearer to the seasonal average. It should feel warmer with lighter winds for most, but winds will freshen again in the south. It looks like remaining mainly dry, but just the chance of a few showers in the south for a time around the end of the week.

Monday 18 May – Sunday 24 May

Wetter and breezier in the west

We are likely to see a change in the weather pattern for a time after mid-month. High pressure looks like giving way to lower pressure from the west. Western areas of the UK are likely to become breezier and wetter with showers or some longer outbreaks of rain. Eastern parts of the UK could see fronts from the west bring occasional showery rain. However, there should also be decent periods of drier and brighter weather here.

Winds are likely to turn around to a mostly south or south-westerly direction. Therefore, temperatures are favoured to rise a little above average. The southeast could even see a few much warmer days. Currently there is some uncertainty over the extent of any showery rain. There are chances that high pressure stays more dominant, which would mean a drier and calmer week for most.

Monday 25 May – Sunday 7 June

Generally warm but occasionally showery

Indications for the closing week of May and start of June are for often rather warm weather to prevail with winds mainly from the south or east. High pressure looks like being mostly to the east or northeast of the UK. Therefore, eastern and northern areas of the UK should also experience a lot of dry weather. However, occasionally, North Sea coasts could be more suspectable to cooler conditions with some low cloud or mist.

Occasionally, we can expect showers too. The focus of any showers is most likely to be over southern and western areas of the UK. The showers could be occasionally thundery. However, even here, there should also be some decent periods of drier and settled weather. There is a risk, though, that high pressure stays further away than expected, which would mean more widespread and frequent showery weather.

Further ahead

Next Update: We will take another look to see whether we can still expect a return to warmth later in May and for the start of June.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 14 May - Saturday 23 May

To start the period, high pressure will dominate with most places seeing largely fine and dry conditions, with variable cloud and sunny spells. There could be a chance of rain and showers from the south at times, as well as in the far northwest. Light winds across most areas, however, the far northwest and south could turn windier at times with a risk of gales along coasts. Through the middle and towards the end of the period, high pressure will continue to dominate bringing more of the fine weather and light winds across the UK, especially in the east. Temperatures will continue to recover, but still feeling cold for most with a chance of frost overnight in rural spots. Could warm up in places towards the end of the period.

Sunday 24 May - Sunday 7 Jun

After a largely dry and bright start to the period, particularly in the east. More unsettled conditions are likely to arrive in the south from northward extending showers. There will also be outbreaks of rain and showers across the west and northwest from the weak Atlantic mobility. Winds remaining light through most of the period. Temperatures should be rather warm for most, although there could still be the odd chilly night with some frosts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Friday 15 May - Sunday 24 May

To start the period, high pressure will dominate with most places seeing largely fine and dry conditions, with variable cloud and sunny spells. There could be a chance of rain and showers from the south at times, as well as in the far northwest. Light winds across most areas, however, the far northwest and south could turn windier at times with a risk of gales along coasts. Through the middle and towards the end of the period, high pressure will continue to dominate bringing more of the fine weather and light winds across the UK, especially in the east. Temperatures will continue to recover, but still feeling cold for most with a chance of frost overnight in rural spots. Could warm up in places towards the end of the period.

Monday 25 May - Monday 8 Jun

After a largely dry and bright start to the period, particularly in the east. More unsettled conditions are likely to arrive in the south from northward extending showers. There will also be outbreaks of rain and showers across the west and northwest from the weak Atlantic mobility. Winds remaining light through most of the period. Temperatures should be rather warm for most, although there could still be the odd chilly night with some frosts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

The Daily Star claims that we will have the coldest June to August period in five years because of a “cold blob”. Er...?

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The Daily Star claims that we will have the coldest June to August period in five years because of a “cold blob”. Er...?

Well assuming this comes from the same source of most Express articles (ie James Madden), that should mean we are in for a belter of a summer, since the opposite always transpires.

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Sunday 17 May - Tuesday 26 May

To start the period, high pressure should dominate with most parts of the UK seeing largely fine and dry conditions, with variable cloud and bright or sunny spells. The far north/northwest may turn less settled with a greater chance of cloudier skies, outbreaks of rain and stronger winds at times here. Temperatures look to take an upward trend over the next two weeks with most areas becoming warm, especially in the south and east. Through the middle and towards the end of the period, there looks to be a continuation of the settled weather as high pressure stays in control. Most places should remain largely dry with plenty of brightness or sunshine as well as light winds.

Wednesday 27 May - Wednesday 10 Jun

Although with low confidence, this period looks to stay largely dry and fine with bright or sunny spells for many. Despite the dominance of settled weather, this doesn't rule out some spells of rain or showers, with any prolonged rain more likely in the northwest. Temperatures generally trending on the warmer side with an increased chance of some very warm/hot spells in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Interesting to note the mention of possible very warm/hot spells as we head into June.

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