If any of you are interested in knowing more about the weather stories which appear in the media you can join a live Zoom videochat I will be doing with Alistair Grant this Thursday at 8:30pm. You'll be able to ask questions and give your views. There will also a chance to talk about the prospects for the rest of April and May, as well as looking back on winter 2019/20. If you've got specific questions about TWO you'll be able to ask those too.

https://www.facebook.com/events/2660997017342172/

Sounds interesting Brian - and well done on sticking it to the Met Office over Easter temperatures 

Let's hope you don't attract the attention of the people who joined the Archers Zoom chat the other day 

Sunday 19 Apr - Tuesday 28 Apr

Remaining mostly fine and dry on Sunday with the best of the sunshine in the north and northeast. Further south, there may be more cloud with the risk of some showers in the west. Generally warm, but cooler in the breeze. Looking into next week, settled conditions seem likely to continue across the north with a good deal of sunshine and dry weather, as well as some overnight frost in sheltered spots. Showers and some longer spells of rain are possible for many central and southern parts of England and much of Wales, turning heavy and possibly thundery at times. Temperatures generally on the warmer side in the south, but it may be cooler in the north and around the coasts.

Wednesday 29 Apr - Wednesday 13 May

At first, northern areas may see a continuation of the settled weather. Spells of showery rain seem to be largely confined to central and southern parts of England, as well as Wales, though there is the possibility for the rain/showers to spread further north. Towards the middle of May, there looks to be a shift towards more unsettled conditions, though confidence is low at this time. Temperatures should recover in the north, with the rest of the UK remaining rather above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Monday 20 Apr - Wednesday 29 Apr

Remaining mostly fine and dry on Monday with some sunshine for most. Cloudier in the south and southwest with showers likely, perhaps heavy with a risk of thunder. Stronger winds across the east and southeast, but remaining light across the northeast. Generally warmer in the south, with temperatures around average elsewhere. Looking into next week, settled conditions seem likely to continue across the north with a good deal of sunshine and dry weather, as well as some overnight frost. Showers and some longer spells of rain are possible for many southern parts of England, turning heavy and possibly thundery at times. Temperatures generally on the warmer side in the south, but it may be cooler in the north and around the coasts.

Thursday 30 Apr - Thursday 14 May

At first, northern areas may see a continuation of the settled weather. Spells of showery rain seem to be largely confined to central and southern parts of England, as well as Wales, though there is the possibility for the rain or showers to spread further north. Towards the middle of May, there looks to be a shift towards more unsettled conditions, though confidence is low at this time. Temperatures should recover in the north, with the rest of the UK remaining rather above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

April looking dry, mild, and sunny. Rain in May

_________________________________

Wednesday 15 April – Sunday 19 April

Wetter, mild in the south. Dry, cool in the north

For the second half of this week, a low pressure system will slowly drift into south west England from the Bay of Biscay. This will bring some showers, heavy or thundery in places, but also some milder air. Thursday and Friday will see showers more widely across southern England and Wales, with temperatures climbing to a little above average, but not nearly as warm as the Easter holiday weekend. Further north, high pressure to the north near Shetland will keep things fine and dry, although the milder air will not reach this far, so temperatures will stay just below normal.
Over the weekend, the low pressure system in the south will linger but begin to slowly drift into France, so a wet, cloudy, and unsettled weekend is in store for most places south of Birmingham, but especially in the southwest. There will be some dry spells mixed in to due to the showery nature of the rain. However, the closer to France the low gets, the less mild air will reach southern England, so by the end of the weekend temperatures across the country are likely to be near or a bit below normal. High pressure will continue to keep things dry for the north, and a ridge will extend further south beginning Sunday, so drier weather is expected in the west too.

Monday 20 April – Sunday 26 April

Very dry but cooler than normal

High pressure from the north will continue to influence the weather for the final full week of April. This will keep things very dry for most of the country, but in particular the northern half which will be nearer to the high. However, a cooler northeast wind will persist through the week, so temperatures everywhere will tend to run slightly below normal. This will be most pronounced in the east and north. The main exception to the dryness will be in the south, where a nearby low will potentially bring some early-week showers.

However, this is only a risk at the moment, and we expect conditions to be mostly dry even along the south coast. Confidence is high with good agreement in the computer models, but there is perhaps a 25% chance that we see some wetter weather in the south through the first half of the week. Rain would mainly be confined to south of the M4 corridor.

Monday 27 April – Sunday 10 May

Drier for a time but rain returns in May

For the end of April and start of May, the high pressure to the north will likely drift north and west, heading for Greenland and Iceland. This will lead to a gradual shift in the pattern from a dry, sunny, calm outlook to some wetter and windier weather. Low pressure tracks will begin to creep in from the southwest via the Bay of Biscay, bringing some spells of rain and winds to most of the country. With the high pressure nearby, this will likely lead to some lengthy dry spells between weather fronts, especially for the northern half of the country. Temperatures will still tend to be below normal as well.

Heading into the first full week of May, low pressure should become more established over the UK with wetter and windier weather for all. This may lead to some slow-moving fronts overhead that tend to keep things very wet for some places. Temperatures will be a bit nearer to normal, but likely still on the cooler side. Warm fronts will bring milder air into Europe, but this will likely struggle to reach into the UK except for perhaps one or two brief warmer days. Confidence is medium for this range with some uncertainty on the intensity of high pressure and the amount of unsettled weather. However, there aren't too many encouraging signs for a warmer-than-normal outlook.

Further ahead

More on May's weather and how the final month of spring is shaping-up.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

I normally try not to let it bug me but sometime the SE-centric nature of the national BBC forecasts really grates.

Yesterday after the BBC1 6 o'clock news Louise Lear presented the national forecast, and emphasised that today would be sunny and pleasant in most places. She made a brief mention of temperatures saying most would be 14 to 16C, and maybe up to 18C in the London area.

Well today 20C has been reached from inland Aberdeenshire down to Northumberland and Yorkshire, and it was always going to be like this with the high centred further south and a westerly flow affecting the northern half of the country.

Met Office regional forecasts were going for up to 19C in eastern Scotland.

Nothing will change - it's just a bit annoying when an obvious change to the maximum temperature distribution is glibly brushed away with the usual "up to 18C in the London area."

Tuesday 21 Apr - Thursday 30 Apr

Remaining mostly dry on Tuesday with sunny spells for many parts of the UK. Cloudier in southwest with a risk of heavy rain or showers, perhaps accompanied by thunder at times. Breezy with temperatures around average, although warmer in parts of the west and colder along eastern coasts. Towards the end of April, settled conditions are likely to build across much of the UK with a good deal of sunshine and dry weather, as well as some overnight frost. Showers or some longer spells of rain are possible in southern parts of England at times, perhaps heavy and thundery at times. Temperatures generally on the warm side in the south but cooler in the north and around coasts.

Friday 1 May - Friday 15 May

During the start of May, many parts are expected to see a continuation of settled weather with the driest conditions across the north of the UK. Any showers or longer spells of rain are likely to be confined to southern areas of England and parts of Wales. Towards the middle of May, a shift towards more unsettled conditions across much of the UK is expected, though confidence is low at this time. Temperatures are likely to recover to around normal in the north, with the rest of the UK remaining rather above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Wednesday 22 Apr - Friday 1 May

It is expected to be largely fine and dry with plenty of sunshine to start this period, with any risk of showery conditions confined to the south of England. When, at times, unsettled conditions reach the south, it may also carry a risk of thunder and lightning. Temperatures are expected to be rather warm for most, but perhaps cool along eastern coastlines. As we move further into Spring, temperatures will tend towards average for the time of year, with any overnight frosts isolated to sheltered northern regions. The largely sunny, settled conditions with light winds are expected to continue until the end of April, when showery, unsettled conditions may become more widespread and extend further north.

Saturday 2 May - Saturday 16 May

Although confidence is low for this period, it is likely that unsettled, showery conditions that were confined to the south, will extend further north and become somewhat widespread. It's possible that towards the middle of May we will see a return to settled conditions with dry and bright weather. Temperatures overall near or above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Thursday 23 Apr - Saturday 2 May

It is expected to be largely fine and dry with plenty of sunshine to start this period, with any risk of showery conditions confined to the south of England. When, at times, unsettled conditions reach the south, it may also carry a risk of thunder and lightning. Temperatures are expected to be rather warm for most, but perhaps cool along eastern coastlines. As we move further into Spring, temperatures will tend towards average for the time of year, with any overnight frosts isolated to sheltered northern regions. The largely sunny, settled conditions with light winds are expected to continue until the end of April, when showery, unsettled conditions may become more widespread and extend further north.

Sunday 3 May - Sunday 17 May

Although confidence is low for this period, it is likely that unsettled, showery conditions that were confined to the south, will extend further north and become somewhat widespread. It's possible that towards the middle of May we will see a return to settled conditions with dry and bright weather. Temperatures overall near or above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

After a very dry and warm April, rain returns in May

_________________________________

Saturday 18 April – Sunday 26 April

Mostly dry and sunny with some warm days

Showers on Friday night across the southern half of the UK will continue on Saturday, whilst the northern half of the UK will stay dry with some sunshine. Showers should fade by Saturday night, to leave it dry and warm for almost the entirety of the UK on Sunday, with plenty of sunshine in the north and east. The exception will be for Northern Ireland, southwest England and the Channel Islands, where there will be more cloud and the odd shower. It will be a similar picture through the first half of the working week, with largely dry and mostly sunny conditions across the UK, apart from a few showers for the Channel Islands and the far southwest of England.

It will be warm, but there will be a fresh easterly breeze, making it feel somewhat cooler for North Sea coasts. The rest of the week should remain dry across the majority of the UK, with light winds and periods of sunshine by day. It will be rather warm by day too, particularly on Thursday and Friday, although always cooler for North Sea coastal parts. Relatively cool by night under clear spells. Next weekend looks likely to be cooler everywhere, as we import air from a more northeasterly orientation. There should be lots of dry weather, but there will likely be a few showers moving in from the northeast at times.

Monday 27 April – Sunday 3 May

Dry and cool for a time, but rain returns in May

The cooler northeasterly flow in place at the end of the previous week will likely hang around for a few days more. This will give some cool days, particularly for North Sea coasts under the influence of a northeasterly breeze. There will be showers tracking in from the northeast at times too, whilst Northern Ireland and western parts of Britain will likely be driest. Then, around the turn of the month, we expect to see a shift in the weather. Low pressure tracks will begin to creep in from the west, bringing with it some spells of rain and windy conditions at times.
With such a dry month through April, the change to a wetter theme will be welcome news for gardeners and farmers.

After a cold start to the week, temperatures should start to trend closer to the seasonal average, although temperatures will likely fluctuate as fronts come and go. Confidence is fairly high for this shift in the weather to occur in early May. However, there is a slight chance that high pressure will linger for longer than expected, allowing the dry and cool weather to stick around for longer. This scenario seems most feasible for the northeast of the UK.

Monday 4 May – Sunday 17 May

Further spells of wet weather possible

Low pressure systems are expected to continue to influence our weather throughout early- and mid-May, giving changeable conditions. There will likely be spells of wet and windy weather, but it is not expected to be a complete wash-out, with dry and calm periods too. In fact, there are some indications that high pressure could become extensive over the UK once again, which could bring with it some dry, calm and warm weather. This outcome seems most likely for the southeast of the UK.

However, the more likely scenario is that low pressure remains a dominating feature through the middle part of May, with wetter and windier weather for the northern half of the UK compared to normal for this time of year. Warm fronts will bring milder air into Europe, but this will probably struggle to reach into the UK except for perhaps one or two brief warmer days. For the north of the country, temperatures may generally trend a little below normal.

Further ahead

We will have a closer look at the forecast for the latter half of May, and take a closer look at how much rain we might expect as we head deeper into spring.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Friday 24 Apr - Sunday 3 May

It is expected to be largely fine and dry with plenty of sunshine to start this period, with any risk of showery conditions confined to the south of England. When, at times, unsettled conditions reach the south, it may also carry a risk of thunder and lightning. Temperatures are expected to be rather warm for most, but perhaps cool along eastern coastlines. As we move further into Spring, temperatures will tend towards average for the time of year, with any overnight frosts isolated to sheltered northern regions. The largely sunny, settled conditions with light winds are expected to continue until the end of April, when showery, unsettled conditions may become more widespread and extend further north.

Monday 4 May - Monday 18 May

Although confidence is low for this period, it is likely that unsettled, showery conditions that were confined to the south, will extend further north and become somewhat widespread. It's possible that towards the middle of May we will see a return to settled conditions with dry and bright weather. Temperatures overall near or above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Saturday 25 Apr - Monday 4 May

It is expected to be largely fine and dry with plenty of sunshine to start this period, with any risk of showery conditions confined to the south of England. When, at times, unsettled conditions reach the south, it may also carry a risk of thunder and lightning. Temperatures are expected to be rather warm for most, but perhaps cool along eastern coastlines. As we move further into Spring, temperatures will tend towards average for the time of year, with any overnight frosts isolated to sheltered northern regions. The largely sunny, settled conditions with light winds are expected to continue until the end of April, when showery, unsettled conditions may become more widespread and extend further north.

Tuesday 5 May - Tuesday 19 May

Although confidence is low for this period, it is likely that unsettled, showery conditions that were confined to the south, will extend further north and become somewhat widespread. It's possible that towards the middle of May we will see a return to settled conditions with dry and bright weather. Temperatures overall near or above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

A recording of the first episode of Blowing Hot and Cold is on YouTube.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYEKdhpPbj4&feature=youtu.be

Sunday 26 Apr - Tuesday 5 May

Fog to start for some on Sunday, but this soon clearing to leave a cloudy day in the north with patchy rain and showers for parts of the west. Dry with sunny spells elsewhere. Through next week confidence becomes low but it looks to be generally more unsettled. There will still be periods of fine and dry weather with sunshine but with a greater chance of showers or at times some longer spells of rain developing, especially in the south at first. Following this into early May there is a chance of seeing more organised bands of rain arriving into the west with showers, perhaps heavy and blustery, in the north. Temperatures above average to start but becoming a little cooler with the chance of overnight frosts in the north.

Wednesday 6 May - Wednesday 20 May

Although confidence is low for this period, it is likely that unsettled, showery conditions will reach much of the country for a time before towards the middle of May we will see a return to drier and brighter weather. Temperatures overall near normal or slightly above.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

After a warm & very dry April, rain returns in May

_________________________________

Wednesday 22 April – Sunday 26 April

Mostly dry and sunny. Warm for a time.

Much of the UK will remain dry and sunny through Wednesday and Thursday. It will become warmer too with easterly winds easing. On Thursday, temperatures are likely to approach 20 Celsius over some northern parts of the UK while reaching the mid-20s Celsius in parts of the south. However, North Sea coasts will remain much cooler with an onshore breeze.
Friday and Saturday also look set to be mainly dry and sunny with gentle winds.

However, there could be a little early mist or fog in rural valleys. It will still be quite warm away from eastern coasts, with temperatures mostly above the seasonal average. However, by Sunday, a northerly breeze looks set to develop. The northern half of the UK is therefore likely to become cloudier at times on Sunday and cooler with the chance of showers for northern Scotland. The southern half of the UK staying dry with periods of sunshine.

Monday 27 April – Sunday 3 May

Dry and cool at first, then turning wetter.

The first half of next week will be rather cool with north or north-westerly winds predominating. However, high pressure should still be near to the UK, bringing a lot of dry and settled weather. Later next week, we are likely to see the return of low pressure from the west.

Therefore, it looks like turning breezier and wetter for the start of the new month. Wettest conditions are favoured to develop over Northern Ireland and western Scotland with the potential for prolonged outbreaks of rain there. Other parts of the UK are likely to have some rain at times before the end of the week. Overall, less warm compared to this week with temperatures staying nearer the seasonal average.

Monday 4 May – Sunday 17 May

Wetter and breezier than recently

Wetter and breezier than recently through early to mid-May. Low pressure areas are likely to approach from the northeast Atlantic at times, bringing showers and some longer outbreaks of rain. It currently looks as though the rainfall will be most frequent over western and northern parts of the UK. Here, rainfall totals are likely to be above average. Central and eastern parts of England, which have been very dry recently, should see nearer-normal rainfall through the first half of May.

However, there should also be some drier and brighter days as well. Temperatures are likely to alternate around the seasonal average. There is a chance that low pressure areas remain further away to the west than currently expected, which would bring lengthier periods of dry weather for many. However, at the moment, it looks like turning wetter with at least some useful rainfall for gardens.

Further ahead

We will take a look at whether the expected change to wetter conditions could last into late May.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 30 Apr - Saturday 9 May

Thursday is likely see a continuation of unsettled weather with a risk of strong wind in places. Showers will potentially be more focused to the west, with more prolonged and heavy periods of rainfall at times. Bright or sunny spells elsewhere. Moving into May, the more unsettled theme is likely to continue as Atlantic weather systems bring bands of rain across many areas. There will probably still be some bright spells interspersed by showers between these frontal systems. It is likely to be windy at times, particularly around coasts in the south and west. Temperatures remaining around average, but with the potential for some warm days in the east. Signs that more settled conditions may return to end this period, but confidence is low.

Sunday 10 May - Sunday 24 May

Confidence remains low, but the second week of May appears to have the best chance of more settled and drier conditions. From mid-month until the end of May, conditions look mixed. There is likely to be a mixture of changeable periods of a few days with the chance of thundery showers, but also some periods of drier and sunnier weather. Temperatures are likely to be near the climatological average, or maybe slightly above, with rainfall around average as well.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Friday 1 May - Sunday 10 May

Looking slightly ahead into the beginning of May, the unsettled theme is likely to continue as Atlantic weather systems bring further bands of rain across to many areas, particularly in the south and the west of the UK. Although the southwest is most likely to see the wettest of these conditions, there should still be some brighter and showery spells in between these frontal systems. It is expected to be windy at times, especially around the south and west coasts. Temperatures should remain around average, but with the potential for some warmer days in the east. Towards the end of this period, although confidence is low, there are some signs that more settled conditions may return.

Monday 11 May - Monday 25 May

Confidence remains low, but the second week of May appears to have the best chance of more settled and drier conditions. From mid-month until the end of May, conditions look mixed. There is likely to be a mixture of changeable periods of a few days with the chance of thundery showers, but also some periods of drier and sunnier weather. Temperatures are likely to be near the climatological average, or maybe slightly above, with rainfall around average as well.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Saturday 2 May - Monday 11 May

Looking slightly ahead into the beginning of May, the unsettled theme is likely to continue as Atlantic weather systems bring further bands of rain across to many areas, particularly in the south and the west of the UK. Although the southwest is most likely to see the wettest of these conditions, there should still be some brighter and showery spells in between these frontal systems. It is expected to be windy at times, especially around the south and west coasts. Temperatures should remain around average, but with the potential for some warmer days in the east. Towards the end of this period, although confidence is low, there are some signs that more settled conditions may return.

Tuesday 12 May - Tuesday 26 May

Confidence remains low, but the second week of May appears to have the best chance of more settled and drier conditions. From mid-month until the end of May, conditions look mixed. There is likely to be a mixture of changeable periods of a few days with the chance of thundery showers, but also some periods of drier and sunnier weather. Temperatures are likely to be near the climatological average, or maybe slightly above, with rainfall around average as well.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Sunday 3 May - Tuesday 12 May

It is likely to be generally unsettled during the first week of May as Atlantic weather systems bring further bands of rain to many areas, particularly in the south and the west of the UK. There could also be some brighter and showery conditions in-between these frontal systems. It is expected to be windy at times, especially along southern and western coastlines. The confidence towards the end of this period is low, but after the unsettled start to May, there could be a return of more settled conditions, bringing longer drier spells into the second week of May. Temperatures should be around average for the time of year, with some warmer days possible in the east or southeast.

Wednesday 13 May - Wednesday 27 May

Confidence through this period remains low, but from mid-May to the end of the month, there could well be a mix of conditions. There is likely to be some periods of changeable weather, with heavy rain and thundery showers, as well as some drier and sunnier periods. Temperatures look likely to be near or above average for the time of year, with rainfall below the average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Monday 4 May - Wednesday 13 May

It is likely to be generally unsettled during the first week of May as Atlantic weather systems bring further bands of rain to many areas, particularly in the south and the west of the UK. There could also be some brighter and showery conditions inbetween these frontal systems. It is expected to be windy at times, especially along southern and western coastlines. The confidence towards the end of this period is low, but after the unsettled start to May, there could be a return of more settled conditions, bringing longer drier spells into the second week of May. Temperatures should be around average for the time of year, with some warmer days possible in the east or southeast.

Thursday 14 May - Thursday 28 May

Confidence through this period remains low, but from mid-May to the end of the month, there could well be a mix of conditions. There is likely to be some periods of changeable weather, with heavy rain and thundery showers, as well as some drier and sunnier periods. Temperatures look likely to be near or above average for the time of year, with rainfall below the average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/