Tuesday 18 Feb - Thursday 27 Feb

Unsettled conditions are expected to continue next week with spells of rain, interspersed with brighter, showery interludes across the north and northwest with the driest and brightest weather across the east and southeast. Hail and thunder are also possible, with some wintriness over northern hills. Gales and winds easing for a time, with temperatures on the cold side. It will remain mostly unsettled into the end of next week, with the northwest/southeast split continuing. Becoming windier, particularly in the north. There is a low chance that more settled and dry conditions will move in from the southeast, extending to all but the far northwest, bringing some overnight frost and fog. However, any settled weather will be short lived as unsettled conditions return by the end of this period.

Thursday 27 Feb - Thursday 12 Mar

A continuation of the unsettled weather is expected at first, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter but showery conditions. The heaviest rain and strongest winds are expected in the northwest, with drier conditions expected in southern and eastern parts. Temperatures should generally be above normal for the time of year. It will perhaps become more generally settled throughout the UK in early March, with more prolonged dry spells, particularly in the south and east, with wetter conditions more likely to be confined to the northwest. Temperatures are expected to stay above average, with any cold interludes fairly brief.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Red warning for hurricane force winds in Iceland now...

https://en.vedur.is/alerts

​

 Met office 10 day trend

Next 10 days

More wind and rain
Storm Dennis
Less stormy next week

Days 7 to 10

Sun and showers
Then more wind and rain
Less stormy

​

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Chillier in the wake of ‘Dennis’


• Computers say more wind and rain


• Confidence very low!

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2020/02/14/john-hammonds-month-ahead-d-dennis-s-spring/

​

 Met office 10 day trend

Next 10 days

More wind and rain
Storm Dennis
Less stormy next week

Days 7 to 10

Sun and showers
Then more wind and rain
Less stormy

 

​

Red warning for hurricane force winds in Iceland now...

 

https://en.vedur.is/alerts

 

"Many routes are closed due to bad weather and we ask that people just stay indoor today. "

Says it all. http://www.road.is/

 See the latest wind gusts here: https://vegasja.vegagerdin.is/eng/

49 m/s is the strongest I see right now - 110mph, in the Westfjords where I visited in September. One site showing MEAN wind speed of 34m/s (76mph) and a temperature of -4C. Ouch!

Wednesday 19 Feb - Friday 28 Feb

Unsettled conditions are expected to continue with spells of rain, interspersed with brighter, showery interludes across the north and northwest with the driest and brightest weather across the east and southeast. Hail and thunder are also possible, with some wintriness over northern hills. Gales and winds easing for a time, with temperatures on the cold side. It will remain mostly unsettled into the end of next week, with the northwest/southeast split continuing. Becoming windier, particularly in the north. There is a low chance that more settled and dry conditions will move in from the southeast, extending to all but the far northwest, bringing some overnight frost and fog. However, any settled weather will be short lived as unsettled conditions return by the end of this period.

Friday 28 Feb - Friday 13 Mar

A continuation of the unsettled weather is expected at first, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter but showery conditions. The heaviest rain and strongest winds are expected in the northwest, with drier conditions expected in southern and eastern parts. Temperatures should generally be above normal for the time of year. It will perhaps become more generally settled throughout the UK by the middle of March, with more prolonged dry spells, particularly in the south and east, with wetter conditions more likely to be confined to the northwest. Temperatures are expected to stay above average, with any cold interludes fairly brief.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

If you felt that January was warmer than usual, you're right. In 141 years of record-keeping from NOAA, there has never been a warmer January, according to a new report. https://t.co/c4nPMj1IpZ

— CNN (@CNN) February 14, 2020

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet and windy at times - wettest in the north

_________________________________

Saturday 15 February – Sunday 23 February

Another wet and very windy weekend to come

The weekend weather will be dominated by Storm Dennis, which will bring severe gales and heavy rain to the UK. Saturday will be a windy day countrywide and there will be widespread showers and rain. Storm Dennis will remain nearby for the rest of the weekend. There will be little respite overnight or on Sunday, with gales and severe gales expected to continue, and with further heavy showers and rain expected. Given recent heavy rain, the ground is still very wet, so there is a risk of flooding this weekend.

It took a couple of days for winds to die down after Storm Ciara moved through last weekend. We'll see a similar pattern with Storm Dennis. By this, we mean that whilst Monday is not expected to be as windy as this weekend, it will still be a very windy day. Gale force winds are possible, and there will be frequent blustery showers. There will be the risk of snow on high ground in the north of the UK, especially later on Monday and overnight as cold air moves in.

Tuesday will be another showery day with the chance of some snow in the north. It will be windy but not as windy as Monday. Wednesday should be less cold, less windy and less showery. However, Thursday should bring a return to wetter and windier weather as the next Atlantic weather system moves through. The rest of next week looks changeable. Atlantic weather systems are likely to affect the country, but there are some indications that the south of the UK might be a little drier and calmer than it has been.

Monday 24 February – Sunday 1 March

Less windy with rain mainly in the north

The final week of February should see a subtle change in the weather. We still expect Atlantic weather systems to affect the UK, but less frequently than we have been seeing. This will be because a ridge of high pressure centred over Europe is expected to expand northwards, this in turn deflecting the track of the Atlantic lows northwards. There is a little uncertainty over exactly how far north the ridge of high pressure will extend, and this has a knock-on effect on winds and rain across the country. However, it should be less wet and less windy for the UK as a whole.

There will still be some rain, this mainly over the north of the country where it may become windy at times. The south of the country should become drier and calmer, although don't be surprised if there is still a spell or two of wet weather. As we've seen for much of the winter, temperatures will be near or a little above normal for the time of year. However, with winds likely to be coming in from the north-west at times there will be some spells of cooler weather.

Monday 2 March – Sunday 15 March

Briefly drier, then wet and windy again

The first working week of March will bring little change to the overall pattern seen at the end of February. High pressure should limit the impact of Atlantic weather systems, so it looks drier and calmer than normal in most areas. Just the north of the UK, mainly Scotland but perhaps Northern Ireland, are likely to see rainfall near normal, perhaps a little above normal locally

As we move towards the middle of the month it looks as though high pressure will either decline southwards or start to drift eastwards. The upshot of this is that we would see rainfall nearer normal across the UK, although still with wettest areas of the country being in the north and west. A similar pattern is expected with winds - northern and west parts look most likely to see windy weather whilst the south and east remain relatively calm.

One thing that doesn't seem to change much in March is that it still looks warmer than normal. We do think there could be the occasional cooler spell but at the moment there are no indications of any prolonged cold weather before the end of winter.

Further ahead

Will there be another spell of very windy weather before we get to the end of February?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet and windy at times - wettest in the north

_________________________________

Saturday 15 February – Sunday 23 February

Another wet and very windy weekend to come

The weekend weather will be dominated by Storm Dennis, which will bring severe gales and heavy rain to the UK. Saturday will be a windy day countrywide and there will be widespread showers and rain. Storm Dennis will remain nearby for the rest of the weekend. There will be little respite overnight or on Sunday, with gales and severe gales expected to continue, and with further heavy showers and rain expected. Given recent heavy rain, the ground is still very wet, so there is a risk of flooding this weekend.

It took a couple of days for winds to die down after Storm Ciara moved through last weekend. We'll see a similar pattern with Storm Dennis. By this, we mean that whilst Monday is not expected to be as windy as this weekend, it will still be a very windy day. Gale force winds are possible, and there will be frequent blustery showers. There will be the risk of snow on high ground in the north of the UK, especially later on Monday and overnight as cold air moves in.

Tuesday will be another showery day with the chance of some snow in the north. It will be windy but not as windy as Monday. Wednesday should be less cold, less windy and less showery. However, Thursday should bring a return to wetter and windier weather as the next Atlantic weather system moves through. The rest of next week looks changeable. Atlantic weather systems are likely to affect the country, but there are some indications that the south of the UK might be a little drier and calmer than it has been.

Monday 24 February – Sunday 1 March

Less windy with rain mainly in the north

The final week of February should see a subtle change in the weather. We still expect Atlantic weather systems to affect the UK, but less frequently than we have been seeing. This will be because a ridge of high pressure centred over Europe is expected to expand northwards, this in turn deflecting the track of the Atlantic lows northwards. There is a little uncertainty over exactly how far north the ridge of high pressure will extend, and this has a knock-on effect on winds and rain across the country. However, it should be less wet and less windy for the UK as a whole.

There will still be some rain, this mainly over the north of the country where it may become windy at times. The south of the country should become drier and calmer, although don't be surprised if there is still a spell or two of wet weather. As we've seen for much of the winter, temperatures will be near or a little above normal for the time of year. However, with winds likely to be coming in from the north-west at times there will be some spells of cooler weather.

Monday 2 March – Sunday 15 March

Briefly drier, then wet and windy again

The first working week of March will bring little change to the overall pattern seen at the end of February. High pressure should limit the impact of Atlantic weather systems, so it looks drier and calmer than normal in most areas. Just the north of the UK, mainly Scotland but perhaps Northern Ireland, are likely to see rainfall near normal, perhaps a little above normal locally

As we move towards the middle of the month it looks as though high pressure will either decline southwards or start to drift eastwards. The upshot of this is that we would see rainfall nearer normal across the UK, although still with wettest areas of the country being in the north and west. A similar pattern is expected with winds - northern and west parts look most likely to see windy weather whilst the south and east remain relatively calm.

One thing that doesn't seem to change much in March is that it still looks warmer than normal. We do think there could be the occasional cooler spell but at the moment there are no indications of any prolonged cold weather before the end of winter.

Further ahead

Will there be another spell of very windy weather before we get to the end of February?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 20 Feb - Saturday 29 Feb

Unsettled and often windy conditions are expected to continue with areas of rain moving east across the UK interspersed with brighter, showery interludes. Rain is likely to be heaviest across western and especially northwestern areas with the driest and brightest weather across the east and southeast. Hail and thunder are also possible in the showery interludes with snow at times over northern hills. Temperatures will generally vary between near normal and mild as weather systems cross the country. Some brief quieter, colder spells are also likely with more in the way of night frost. These are more likely later in the period and could give snow showers more widely to low levels in the north.

Saturday 29 Feb - Saturday 14 Mar

A continuation of the unsettled weather is expected at first, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter but showery conditions. The heaviest rain and strongest winds are expected in the northwest, with drier conditions expected in southern and eastern parts. Temperatures should generally be above normal for the time of year. It will perhaps become more generally settled throughout the UK by the middle of March, with more prolonged dry spells, particularly in the south and east, with wetter conditions more likely to be confined to the northwest. Temperatures are expected to stay above average, with any cold interludes fairly brief.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Friday 21 Feb - Sunday 1 Mar

Unsettled and often windy conditions are expected to continue with areas of rain moving east across the UK interspersed with brighter, showery interludes. Rain is likely to be heaviest across western and especially northwestern areas with the driest and brightest weather across the east and southeast. Hail and thunder are also possible in the showery interludes with snow at times over northern hills. Temperatures will generally vary between near normal and mild as weather systems cross the country. Some brief quieter, colder spells are also likely with more in the way of night frost. These are more likely later in the period and could give snow showers more widely to low levels in the north.

Saturday 29 Feb - Saturday 14 Mar

A continuation of the unsettled weather is expected at first, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter but showery conditions. The heaviest rain and strongest winds are expected in the northwest, with drier conditions expected in southern and eastern parts. Temperatures should generally be above normal for the time of year. It will perhaps become more generally settled throughout the UK by the middle of March, with more prolonged dry spells, particularly in the south and east, with wetter conditions more likely to be confined to the northwest. Temperatures are expected to stay above average, with any cold interludes fairly brief.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Saturday 22 Feb - Monday 2 Mar

Unsettled and often windy conditions are expected to continue with areas of rain moving east across the UK interspersed with brighter, showery interludes. Rain is likely to be heaviest across western and especially northwestern areas with the driest and brightest weather across the east and southeast. Hail and thunder are also possible in the showery interludes with snow at times over northern hills. Temperatures will generally vary between near normal and mild as weather systems cross the country. Some brief quieter, colder spells are also possible later in the period, with the best of the dry weather away from the far northwest. These periods may also bring some overnight frost and patchy fog in places.

Monday 2 Mar - Monday 16 Mar

A continuation of the unsettled weather is expected at first, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter but showery conditions. The heaviest rain and strongest winds are expected in the northwest, with drier conditions expected in southern and eastern parts. It will perhaps become more generally settled throughout the UK by the middle of March, with more prolonged dry spells, particularly in the south and east, with wetter conditions more likely to be confined to the northwest. Temperatures are expected to stay above average, with any cold interludes fairly brief.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Sunday 23 Feb - Tuesday 3 Mar

Unsettled and often windy conditions are expected to continue with areas of rain moving east across the UK interspersed with brighter, showery interludes. Rain is likely to be heaviest across western and northwestern areas, especially over the hills, with the best of any more prolonged drier interludes in the south and east. Hail and thunder are also possible in the showery interludes with snow at times over northern hills. Temperatures will generally be around average, but above in the south. Some brief quieter, colder spells are also possible later in the period, especially in southern and eastern areas, these bringing some overnight frost and patchy fog in places. Elsewhere will continue to see spells of wet and windy weather.

Tuesday 3 Mar - Tuesday 17 Mar

A continuation of the unsettled weather is expected at first, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter but showery conditions. The heaviest rain and strongest winds are expected in the northwest, with drier conditions expected in southern and eastern parts. It will perhaps become more generally settled throughout the UK by the middle of March, with more prolonged dry spells, particularly in the south and east, with wetter conditions more likely to be confined to the northwest. Temperatures are expected to stay above average, with any cold interludes fairly brief.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

More wind and rain to come, but drier early March

_________________________________

Wednesday 19 February – Sunday 23 February

Staying wet and windy

We've seen a lot of exceptionally wet and windy weather recently and we don't expect a major change to this during the rest of this week or the coming weekend. Our weather will continue to come in from the west, with low pressure systems moving towards or across the UK from the Atlantic. Thursday will see a cold front sweeping south-eastwards across the UK. This front will bring a spell of heavy rain and squally winds as it moves through. It could also bring some thunder. Showers following in behind this front will also be heavy and locally thundery. Snow showers are possible on high ground in the northwest of the UK.

Friday brings a split in the weather, with very wet and very windy weather in the north, drier and less windy conditions in the south. The weekend looks very windy again. On Saturday the strongest winds are likely to be in the north. There will be showers there too, these heavy and blustery and likely to bring snow on high ground. The south will be less windy and drier. A switch on Sunday a low pressure system tracking across the UK brings strong winds and rain to the south. The north of the country should be less windy but with showers.

Monday 24 February – Sunday 1 March

Further spells of wet and windy weather

The final few days of February should see the start of a slight change in the weather. We still expect Atlantic weather systems to affect the UK, so spells of wet and windy weather still look likely. However, there should be a better chance of drier and calmer spells in some parts of the country. There is a little bit of uncertainty over the forecast for Monday and Tuesday. A front is expected to lie across or close to the UK. A low pressure system could develop on this front, and this would mean another round of wet and windy weather. The main uncertainty is the position and track of any developing low, which weather models have been having a bit of trouble pinning down.

There is slightly higher confidence that we will see another weather system moving through on Wednesday and Thursday, however, we should see high pressure starting to build from the south and southwest. This won't have a huge impact on our weather at first. If anything, it will tend to make winds veer northwesterly so it looks a little colder at the end of the week. We should also start to see some spells of drier and calmer weather in the south, later in the week, but the ridge of high pressure should be more of a feature during March.

Monday 2 March – Sunday 15 March

Becoming calmer and drier

High pressure is expected to be more of an influence during the first half of March. It will tend to expand northwards across Europe, shifting the track of Atlantic low pressure systems northwards. This means two things. First, the south of the UK will become drier and calmer. Some spells of wet and windy weather are possible, but there should be some decent dry periods too.

The north of the UK will continue to be affected by low pressure systems and will remain wet and windy, although the heaviest rain will tend to become more limited to Scotland, and winds shouldn't be quite as strong. One thing that has remained a constant in our forecast for March is the temperature. As we've seen for most of the last month or so, it looks warmer than normal. There could be the occasional cooler spell but at the moment there are no indications of any prolonged cold weather before the end of winter.

Further ahead

More detail on the forecast to start March.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook?ns_linkname=news_central&ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_weather

Monday 24 Feb - Wednesday 4 Mar

Unsettled and often windy conditions are expected to continue with areas of rain moving east across the UK interspersed with brighter, showery interludes. Rain is likely to be heaviest across western and northwestern areas, especially over the hills, with the best of any more prolonged drier interludes in the south and east. Hail and thunder are also possible in the showery interludes with snow at times over northern hills. Temperatures will generally be around average, but above in the south. Some brief quieter, colder spells are also possible later in the period, especially in southern and eastern areas, these bringing some overnight frost and patchy fog in places. Elsewhere will continue to see spells of wet and windy weather.

 Wednesday 4 Mar - Wednesday 18 Mar 

A continuation of the unsettled weather is expected at first, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter but showery conditions. The heaviest rain and strongest winds are expected in the northwest, with drier conditions expected in southern and eastern parts. It will perhaps become more generally settled by the middle of March, with more prolonged dry spells possible, especially in the south. Any further spells of wet weather most likely in the north. Temperatures mostly above average, with any cold interludes fairly brief, but with the continued risk of overnight frosts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Tuesday 25 Feb - Thursday 5 Mar

Unsettled and often windy conditions are expected to continue with areas of rain moving east across the UK interspersed with brighter, showery interludes. Rain is likely to be heaviest across western and northwestern areas, especially over the hills, with the best of any more prolonged drier interludes in the south and east. Hail and thunder are also possible in the showery interludes with snow at times over northern hills. Temperatures will generally be around average, but above in the south. Some brief quieter, colder spells are also possible later in the period, especially in southern and eastern areas, these bringing some overnight frost and patchy fog in places. Elsewhere will continue to see spells of wet and windy weather.

Thursday 5 Mar - Thursday 19 Mar

A continuation of the unsettled weather is expected at first, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter but showery conditions. The heaviest rain and strongest winds are expected in the northwest, with drier conditions expected in southern and eastern parts. It will perhaps become more generally settled by the middle of March, with more prolonged dry spells possible, especially in the south. Any further spells of wet weather most likely in the north. Temperatures mostly above average, with any cold interludes fairly brief, but with the continued risk of overnight frosts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Yet more stormy weather


• Colder theme next week


• No clarity as spring approaches!

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2020/02/21/john-hammonds-month-ahead-enough-is-enough/

Wednesday 26 Feb - Friday 6 Mar

Unsettled and often windy conditions are expected to continue with areas of rain moving east across the UK, interspersed with brighter, showery interludes. Rain is likely to be heaviest across western and northwestern areas, especially over the hills, with the best of any more prolonged drier interludes in the south and east. There is an increased chance of deep low pressure systems affecting somewhere in the UK, causing large amounts of rainfall and very strong winds. Temperatures are likely to frequently oscillate between rather cold and rather mild, with large diurnal variations. During any colder interludes, there is likely to be some snow on the high ground of the north. The weather may become more settled in the southeast at the very end of this period, though remaining unsettled elsewhere.

Friday 6 Mar - Friday 20 Mar

A continuation of the unsettled weather is expected at first, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter, but showery conditions. The heaviest rain and strongest winds are expected in the northwest, with drier conditions expected in southern and eastern parts. It appears likely that conditions will turn generally more settled by the middle of March, with more prolonged dry spells possible, especially in the south. Any further spells of wet and windy weather most likely in the north. Temperatures mostly above average, but there will be large diurnal variations should more settled conditions take control, with frosts becoming likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/