​Australia bushfires: Biggest rainfall in 20 years delivers much-needed relief

https://news.sky.com/story/australia-bushfires-biggest-rainfall-in-20-years-delivers-much-needed-relief-11928058?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter

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Tuesday 11 Feb - Thursday 20 Feb

Tuesday will see a continuation of the very unsettled weather with windy conditions and blustery showers. The showers will be heaviest in the north and the west with a risk of thunder and hail here and snow falling mainly over higher ground in the north. Further ahead, unsettled conditions are expected to dominate; generally windy with spells of rain at times, interspersed with brighter but showery interludes. The heaviest rain and strongest winds are expected in the west and northwest with the best of any drier and brighter conditions in the south and southeast. Snow is likely in the north at times, especially over high ground. Temperatures will mostly stay above normal, with any colder interludes remaining brief.

Wednesday 19 Feb - Wednesday 4 Mar

A continuation of the unsettled weather is expected at first, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter but showery conditions. The heavier rain and stronger winds are expected in the northwest with the drier conditions expected towards the south. Perhaps becoming more generally settled through late February and into early March with more prolonged dry spells, particularly in the south and east with wetter conditions in the northwest. Any wetter weather is more likely to be confined to the northwest. Temperatures are expected to stay unseasonably mild, with any dry and cold interludes fairly brief.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Stormy start


• Quieter from mid-month


• Drier end to winter

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2020/02/07/john-hammonds-month-ahead-winter-storm-before-calm/

Antarctica logs hottest temperature on record with a reading of 18.3C

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/07/antarctica-logs-hottest-temperature-on-record-with-a-reading-of-183c

Not sure how significant that is considering records there only go back to 1961. Sounds like a strong foehn effect.

Antarctica logs hottest temperature on record with a reading of 18.3C

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/07/antarctica-logs-hottest-temperature-on-record-with-a-reading-of-183c

Records keep tumbling 

Wednesday 12 Feb - Friday 21 Feb

Wednesday will see a continuation of the very unsettled weather. Through the morning, most parts will stay windy with a mixture of blustery showers and sunny spells. Outbreaks of rain will arrive in the west during the afternoon, spreading eastwards and turning heavy and persistent over the hills. Further ahead, unsettled conditions are expected to dominate; generally windy with spells of rain at times, interspersed with brighter but showery interludes. The heaviest rain and strongest winds are expected in the west and northwest with the best of any drier and brighter conditions in the south and southeast, where overnight frost and fog is possible. Temperatures will mostly stay above normal, with any colder interludes remaining brief.

Friday 21 Feb - Friday 6 Mar

A continuation of the unsettled weather is expected at first, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter but showery conditions. The heavier rain and stronger winds are expected in the northwest with the drier conditions expected towards the south. Perhaps becoming more generally settled through late February and into early March with more prolonged dry spells, particularly in the south and east with wetter conditions more likely to be confined to the northwest. Temperatures are expected to stay rather mild, with dry and cold interludes fairly brief.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A stormy weekend with unsettled weather following

_________________________________

Saturday 8 February – Sunday 16 February

A stormy weekend followed by a windy & cooler week

This weekend will start off a bit milder than recent days with a fresher southwest wind bringing in some sub-tropical air from the Atlantic. It will be a mostly dry start to the day with a few showers for western and northern areas, but this is just the calm before the storm. A front will arrive in the late afternoon and evening for Scotland, North England, and western areas bringing heavy rain and an increase in winds.

By Sunday, Storm Ciara will arrive from the west, bringing widespread bands of heavy rain and some very strong winds across the UK. The good news is that the strong jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather systems, will push Storm Ciara through quickly. By sunset on Sunday the cold front will clear away from Southeast England, but scattered squally showers are likely to follow behind it.

Winds will ease heading into next week, but this is a relative term here. Monday and Tuesday will still be quite windy very widely, but especially along the southern and western coasts. This will come with a biting westerly wind bringing in some colder air off the North Atlantic, so showers will bring a risk of snow even to low levels for Scotland, Wales, and North England. Possibly even into the Midlands as well, but confidence is lower on this as showers may struggle to get into the Midlands.

Another low pressure system on Thursday will bring some rain more widely, but also some slightly milder air as well so snow chances decrease. A ridge of high pressure on Friday and into Saturday should finally bring a respite from the winds, but its effects will likely be fleeting as things turn unsettled again by Sunday.

Monday 17 February – Sunday 23 February

Changeable weather with some dry spells. Mild

The weather pattern is likely to be unsettled through the final full week of February, but with a slight change from what is expected the previous week. The jet stream, which was very strong when it brought it Storm Ciara, is likely to be a bit weaker and more undulating towards the end of February. What this means is that the weather will be more changeable, with weather fronts mixed with some dry, calm days under high pressure. These features will also tend to be more transient rather than permanent.

The end result is that fronts will often bring some rain and winds to much of the UK, but between frontal systems it will be dry and briefly a bit cooler. High pressure is likely to build into Europe, and as fronts ebb away a ridge of this high pressure will find its way into the UK. This will happen most frequently in the south and east, which western and northern areas being more consistently wet and breezy.

Temperatures are likely to be a bit above average, especially in the south, with perhaps one or two chillier days where the temperature dips to nearer the norm. Occasionally there may be some overnight frosts and there is a slight risk of lowland snow in Scotland on some of these cooler days. Overall confidence in high to medium with some strong signals for the forecast models. There is high confidence that we will not see any significant cold outbreaks.

Monday 24 February – Sunday 8 March

Unsettled, but turning calmer later in March.

The tail end of February and first week of March look to follow along much where mid-February leaves off; unsettled, changeable weather with some dry spells at times. However, a gradual change is expected as we head into March, with high pressure in Europe likely to become stronger and more influential here in the UK.

This means that as February ends and March begins, the dry spells in the southern and eastern parts of the country will tend to become the norm, rather than occasional features. Fronts will have a harder time reaching the southeast, and rainy and windy spells will become fewer and further between. Things will likely stay wet and windy for northern areas, but western England and Wales will likely dry out too.

As the high pressure become the more dominant weather pattern across northwest Europe, the warmer, sub-tropical air from the southwest will be cut off. This will mean that temperatures will likely be a bit less mild than in the middle of February, but likely still slightly above average. Under clearer skies and calmer winds with high pressure around, there is a stronger likelihood that we will see some frosty mornings.

Confidence is medium for this week as we start to see some differences in how strong certain forecast models what to make the high pressure. There is a chance that things may stay a bit more unsettled and milder, but only a small chance at the moment.

Further ahead

In the wake of Storm Ciara we will look that the impacts to the weather pattern as see if we can lock down the strength of high pressure heading into March.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 13 Feb - Saturday 22 Feb

Thursday morning looks to be largely wet and windy as a band of rain pushes across the UK. Thereafter, it should be drier but will remain cloudy and rather breezy, with scattered showers in places. It is likely to feel rather mild in the south, but colder further north. Looking ahead, unsettled conditions are expected to dominate; generally windy with spells of rain at times, interspersed with brighter but showery interludes. The heaviest rain and strongest winds are expected in the west and northwest with the best of any drier and brighter conditions in the south and southeast, where overnight frost and fog is possible. Temperatures will mostly stay above normal, with colder interludes remaining brief.

Saturday 22 Feb - Saturday 7 Mar

A continuation of the unsettled weather is expected at first, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter but showery conditions. The heavier rain and stronger winds are expected in the northwest with the drier conditions expected towards the south. Perhaps becoming more generally settled through late February and into early March with more prolonged dry spells, particularly in the south and east with wetter conditions more likely to be confined to the northwest. Temperatures are expected to stay rather mild, with dry and cold interludes fairly brief.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC saying storm Ciara has helped fire up the jet stream, it seems... Mentions BA flight breaking the transatlantic record from NY to London by 16 minutes.

"The Boeing 747-436 reached speeds of 825 mph (1,327 km/h) as it rode a jet stream accelerated by Storm Ciara".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-51433720

Friday 14 Feb - Sunday 23 Feb

At the beginning of this period, unsettled conditions are expected to dominate, often giving windy conditions with spells of rain at times, interspersed with brighter, showery interludes. The heaviest rain and strongest winds are expected in the west and northwest of the UK with the best of any drier, brighter conditions in the south and southeast. In particular a very windy, wet spell of weather looks increasingly likely next weekend giving widespread gales. Later in the period, conditions may become less unsettled with some quieter spells possibly developing for central and southern areas especially and more in the way of overnight frost and fog. Temperatures will mostly stay above normal, with colder interludes remaining brief.

Sunday 23 Feb - Sunday 8 Mar

A continuation of the unsettled weather is expected at first, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter but showery conditions. The heavier rain and stronger winds are expected in the northwest with the drier conditions expected towards the south. Perhaps becoming more generally settled through late February and into early March with more prolonged dry spells, particularly in the south and east with wetter conditions more likely to be confined to the northwest. Temperatures are expected to stay above average, with any cold interludes fairly brief.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

a low at 930hPa doesn't even get the Iceland MetO to amber warning yet...

https://en.vedur.is/alerts

Sunday 16 Feb - Tuesday 25 Feb

At the beginning of this period, unsettled conditions are expected to dominate, often giving strong winds with spells of rain at times, interspersed with brighter, showery interludes. The heaviest rain and strongest winds are expected in the west and northwest of the UK, with the best of any drier, brighter conditions in the south and southeast. In particular a very windy, wet spell of weather looks increasingly likely to continue this Sunday, giving widespread gales. Later in the period, conditions may become less unsettled, with some quieter spells possibly developing for southeastern parts, increasing the risk of overnight fog and frost here. However, northwestern areas are likely to remain unsettled. Temperatures will mostly stay above normal, with colder interludes remaining brief.

Monday 24 Feb - Monday 9 Mar

A continuation of the unsettled weather is expected at first, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter but showery conditions. The heavier rain and stronger winds are expected in the northwest with the drier conditions expected towards the south. Perhaps becoming more generally settled through late February and into early March with more prolonged dry spells, particularly in the south and east with wetter conditions more likely to be confined to the northwest. Temperatures are expected to stay above average, with any cold interludes fairly brief.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet and windy at times - wettest in the north

_________________________________

Wednesday 12 February – Sunday 16 February

Staying unsettled albeit gradually turning milder

Wednesday will see a persistence of the recent chilly, windy and showery weather. Some of the showers will be wintry in the north and west of the UK with further snow over hills. Thursday then looks set to be unsettled with showers and longer outbreaks of rain. Parts of southern Scotland and northern England will have a threat of settling snow for a time. A temporary ridge of high pressure should then bring drier weather for Thursday night but with a widespread frost.

A change appears likely on Friday as winds swing around to a southerly direction, bringing milder conditions for most. However, the north and west are likely to become wet and windy. Another unsettled and windy weekend to come. Outbreaks of heavy rain look like spreading from southwest to northeast across much of the country. The rain is likely to be accompanied by strong or locally gale force winds. However, Saturday will be quite widely mild. Turning chillier in the north on Sunday.

Monday 17 February – Sunday 23 February

Wet and windy at times, most frequently in the north

Next week, the unsettled theme to the weather is likely to continue for many. Low pressure areas passing to the north will bring bands of rain from west to east across the UK at times. The rain is likely to be occasionally accompanied by strong winds. Wettest conditions are likely to be over Scotland, Northern Ireland and Cumbria with rainfall amounts well-above normal there. However, there will also be some drier, brighter and calmer interludes. Indications are for the best of any settled weather to be in the middle part of the week and over southern Britain. Temperatures are likely to be often near or a little above the seasonal average. A lower risk of snow compared to this week with any snow mainly confined to upland areas of Scotland.

Monday 24 February – Sunday 8 March

Briefly drier, then wet and windy again

The final week of February should see a subtle change in the weather. Outbreaks of rain and strong winds should become less frequent as high pressure approaches from the south at times. The south-eastern half of the UK should see the best of any lengthier dry and calm weather. However, there will be a risk of some patchy mist and fog during the nights and mornings here. Further north and west, it should become less wet but still with some rain at times.

As we head into March, there are signs of a return to wetter and windier conditions from the west. Again, Scotland and Northern Ireland are likely to see the most frequent rain. However, England and Wakes are expected to have rain and brisk winds at times as well. Overall, a relatively mild outlook with winds often from the west or south-west. Any colder interludes are likely to be relatively short-lived. The main uncertainty in the forecast is how widespread the wettest and windiest of the weather will be. Currently, Scotland and Northern Ireland look like having the most frequent rainfall but there is a risk the wettest weather shifts further south than expected.

Further ahead

It currently looks wet and windy at times but relatively mild. We will take another look to see if there are any indications of any colder weather to end the winter.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Monday 17 Feb - Wednesday 26 Feb

Unsettled conditions are expected to continue next week, often giving strong winds with spells of rain at times, interspersed with brighter, showery interludes. The heaviest rain and strongest winds are expected in the west and northwest of the UK, with further gales likely. Temperatures will generally be around average in the north, though above average in the south. There is a low chance that more settled and dry conditions will move in from the southeast late next week, extending to all but the far northwest. This would lead to brighter skies, but also more fog and frost. However, any widespread settled weather is likely to be short lived, as unsettled conditions return by the end of this period, with the north and northwest again likely to be wettest and windiest.

Wednesday 26 Feb - Wednesday 11 Mar

A continuation of the unsettled weather is expected at first, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter but showery conditions. The heaviest rain and strongest winds are expected in the northwest, with drier conditions expected in southern and eastern parts. Temperatures should generally be above normal for the time of year. It will perhaps become more generally settled throughout the UK in early March, with more prolonged dry spells, particularly in the south and east, with wetter conditions more likely to be confined to the northwest. Temperatures are expected to stay above average, with any cold interludes fairly brief.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Amber warnings for heavy rain out now in some parts on Sunday, I'm right on the northern edge of the one covering the SE.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?id=3a7e1976-64a7-4453-93a9-7db0ae1ee9e3&date=2020-02-16&details

120-140mm possible over high ground of SW England and Wales.

Amber warnings for heavy rain out now in some parts on Sunday, I'm right on the northern edge of the one covering the SE.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?id=3a7e1976-64a7-4453-93a9-7db0ae1ee9e3&date=2020-02-16&details

120-140mm possible over high ground of SW England and Wales.

Now 3 Amber warnings Saturday and 4 Amber warnings for Sunday

Warmest winter in 120 years turns French ski resort into ghost town

The lack of snow has impacted local businesses and is believed to be a consequence of climate change.

https://news.sky.com/story/french-ski-resort-closes-slopes-over-no-snow-for-second-year-in-a-row-11932955?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter

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