Further ahead

While it doesn't look like February will be too cold, we will try to pin down the high pressure and see just how mild it might get.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

After a well above average December and what looks like and exceptionally mild January at least some 3.9c above average in many places and little cold wintry weather in the models we look to February only to find out it's mild and wet yet again? Worse of all the above "Just see how mild it might get?" - I wonder if we could see the same as February last year? Who knows?

Friday 24 Jan - Sunday 2 Feb

Into the weekend, it will be staying cloudy for most with a risk of light rain or drizzle at times. However, it is expected to be largely dry and settled with bright spells and light winds. This will continue for the south further into the following week, whilst the north could be wetter and windier at times. Later on in this period, some rain may briefly spread further southeast across the UK, although the most unsettled weather is likely to remain in the north and northwest, where some hill snow is possible. Further southeast drier spells will be accompanied by the best of any brightness, along with the greatest risk of fog and frost. Temperatures will generally be near average, although a little below at times in the north.

Sunday 2 Feb - Sunday 16 Feb

Through the first half of February, we are likely to see a north/south split continuing; with the north being more unsettled than the south. The heaviest of the rainfall and strongest winds are likely to be seen across the northwest. The south is more likely to see drier, brighter conditions with light winds. There is potentially a greater risk of frost and fog patches developing towards the south. During colder, showery interludes, any snow will most likely be over higher ground in the north, but it could fall to lower levels at times. Temperatures will remain close to or above average through the period, though will likely fluctuate as frontal systems pass through, especially in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Saturday 25 Jan - Monday 3 Feb

Into the weekend, it will be staying cloudy for most. A spell of rain is likely for a time in the northwest, spreading southeast across most parts, accompanied by strengthening winds. Next week, it looks like the south will see the driest weather, whilst the north could be wetter and windier at times. Later on in this period, some rain may briefly spread further southeast across the UK, although the most unsettled weather is likely to remain in the north and northwest, where some hill snow is possible. Further southeast drier spells will be accompanied by the best of any brightness, along with the greatest risk of fog and frost. Temperatures will generally be near average, although a little below at times in the north.

Monday 3 Feb - Monday 17 Feb

Through the first half of February, we are likely to see a north/south split continuing; with the north being more unsettled than the south. The heaviest of the rainfall and strongest winds are likely to be seen across the northwest. The south is more likely to see drier, brighter conditions with light winds. There is potentially a greater risk of frost and fog patches developing towards the south. During colder, showery interludes, any snow will most likely be over higher ground in the north, but it could fall to lower levels at times. Temperatures will remain close to or above average through the period, though will likely fluctuate as frontal systems pass through, especially in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Sunday 26 Jan - Tuesday 4 Feb

Sunday will turn more unsettled for most, with bands of rain moving southeast across the UK, accompanied by a strengthening wind. Heavy showers behind fronts could also bring some wintry precipitation to the hills of the north. Next week looks likely to remain unsettled, with Atlantic fronts making their way southeastwards across the UK. The north and west are likely to see the wettest and windiest spells, with the occasional risk of snow on higher ground. The south and east should stay slightly more settled, though there will still likely be some wet and windy periods. Any settled spells between fronts will lead to some brighter conditions and isolated overnight frosts, but these will likely be short-lived. Temperatures generally around average in the north and just above in the south.

Tuesday 4 Feb - Tuesday 18 Feb

Through the first half of this period, the mobile wet and windy regime looks set to continue. It seems probable that the most unsettled conditions will gradually transfer further north, leaving a more traditional northwest/southeast split. There are signs that through the middle of February, that a more settled, anticyclonic pattern will begin to affect the southeast. These settled conditions may gradually move further northwest to influence much of the UK for a time. This would bring drier weather for all, with an increased likelihood of fog and frost. Unsettled spells of strong winds and rain are still likely from time to time, but mainly in the northwest. Temperatures are likely to be around normal, with a large diurnal variation, if the more settled regime was to take control.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Milder than average with some cold, stormy spells

_________________________________

Wednesday 22 January – Sunday 26 January

Fairly dull but mild week. Changes this weekend.

The rest of this working week will be dominated by high pressure extending over the UK from the west. Westerly winds to the north of this high will feed plenty of Atlantic moisture into the UK. This will result in a pretty dull, grey outlook with largely overcast skies and drizzly, misty conditions. Any sunshine will likely be at a premium, and most frequently in the east.
After a chilly start this week, temperatures will tend to be above average as the blanket of low clouds and mist keeps things from getting too cold. Overnight frost is unlikely, but some areas may turn quite foggy, the fog sluggish to clear in the mornings.

Any area that sees some clearer skies overnight will likely see quite dense fog develop, but this will be very patchy. Heading into the weekend, high pressure is expected to decline and shift away to the south, but this will be a very gradual transition taking the entire weekend. A weak front will try and move in from the northwest, but it will take all day Saturday and most of Sunday for it to reach clear into Southeast England. Rain will turn increasingly light and patchy the further south and east the front gets. However, it is a cold front and is likely to clear out the gloom from the week, so Sunday night is looking a bit colder.

Monday 27 January – Sunday 2 February

Stormy start with a midweek cold snap. Mild later

As the trend for high pressure to become ever less influential continues into next week, a strong low pressure system is likely to move in from the Atlantic early on. The first few days of the week are expected to become quite stormy across the whole UK, with some very strong winds and bands of heavy rain sweeping across the country. While the warm front will bring in some sub-tropical, mild air for a time, the strong cold front will herald a return of polar air and bring a cold snap that is likely to last for two or three days around midweek. During this cold snap, low pressure will linger to the north of the UK and keep things unsettled.

Scattered blustery showers are likely to drift in to western and northern areas, and these coupled with the colder air will bring a risk of lowland snow, mainly for Northwest England, Northern Ireland, and Scotland. Overall confidence is high, but there is still a bit of uncertainty on how long the cold air will be with us, and there is a slight chance it may linger clear to the weekend. However, as low pressure centres shift more over Scandinavia later in the week and into February, milder sub-tropical air from the Atlantic will be able to feed in once more. So temperatures will likely return to being above average for the time of year. Atlantic weather fronts will still traverse the UK though, so it will likely continue to be wet and windy, but not as stormy as the start of the week.

Monday 3 February – Sunday 16 February

Mild and changeable with some long dry spells

For the first full week of February, low pressure is expected to continue to linger around Scandinavia to the northeast of the UK with a ridge of high pressure over western Europe and into the North Atlantic. This UK will be on a knife edge between influences from the low pressure system and the high pressure system, so weather will likely be changeable. However, it will be more consistently wet and windy in northern and eastern areas, while staying a bit drier and calmer in the west and south. Temperatures will also tend to be milder than normal, and likely a bit milder than the end of January. Temporary ridges of high pressure that are expected at times may lead to some further cold snaps, but these will tend to be fleeting, lasting only one or two days.

Heading into mid-February, the broad weather pattern is likely to stay mostly the same, but low pressure tracks will move from Greenland, north of the UK, and into Scandinavia.
High pressure to the southwest and south will be able to make its presence felt a bit more often between low pressure systems, but also occasional fronts will bring some rain and winds to all. Southern areas may stay fairly dry though, with lengthy dry spells between weaker fronts that may only manage to bring light, patchy rain. Confidence is reasonably high into mid-February, but the main uncertainty is over how influential and for how long high pressure will determine the weather. There is a robust signal in the models for a distinct lack of prolonged, widespread cold and wintry weather. However, some brief cold snaps are expected, so a few spots may see some lowland snow at times.

Further ahead

We will have a better idea how long cold air will stick around next week, and take a closer look at how mild February may be.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Monday 27 Jan - Wednesday 5 Feb

Next week looks likely to continue the unsettled theme with a mixture of spells of locally heavy rain and showers with colder and brighter interludes. The heaviest of the rain is likely to be focused over western parts with snow possible across some northern hills. It will be windy throughout with a chance of gales at times, which will reduce the risk of overnight frost and fog. Towards the end of the period the south and east may see slightly more settled conditions moving in. This will lead to an increased risk of frost and fog overnight. Temperatures will fluctuate between mild and rather cold at times as bands of rain move across the UK.

Wednesday 5 Feb - Wednesday 19 Feb

Through the first half of this period, the mobile wet and windy regime looks set to continue. It seems probable that the most unsettled conditions will gradually transfer further north, leaving a more traditional northwest/southeast split. There are signs that through the middle of February, that more settled conditions will develop across the southeast. These settled conditions may gradually spread further northwest to influence much of the UK for a time. This would bring drier weather for all, with an increased likelihood of fog and frost. Unsettled spells of strong winds and rain are still likely from time to time, but mainly in the northwest. Temperatures are likely to be around normal, but could be rather cold overnight in more settled spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

​

 Met office 10 Day trend

Next 10 Days

Goodbye high
Turning back to wet and windy

Rest of this week

Mostly dry
Murky
Milder nights

Next week

Monday - watching closely
Beyond Monday changeable
Spells of wind and rain
Perhaps a bit colder

​

Tuesday 28 Jan - Thursday 6 Feb

Next week looks likely to continue the unsettled theme with a mixture of spells of locally heavy rain and showers with colder and brighter interludes. The heaviest of the rain is likely to be focused over western parts with snow possible across some northern hills. It will be windy throughout with a chance of gales at times, which will reduce the risk of overnight frost and fog. Towards the end of the period the south and east may see slightly more settled conditions moving in. This will lead to an increased risk of frost and fog overnight. Temperatures will fluctuate between mild and rather cold at times as bands of rain move across the UK.

Thursday 6 Feb - Thursday 20 Feb

Through the first half of this period, the mobile wet and windy regime looks set to continue. It seems probable that the most unsettled conditions will gradually transfer further north, leaving a more traditional northwest/southeast split. There are signs that through the middle of February, that more settled conditions will develop across the southeast. These settled conditions may gradually spread further northwest to influence much of the UK for a time. This would bring drier weather for all, with an increased likelihood of fog and frost. Unsettled spells of strong winds and rain are still likely from time to time, but mainly in the northwest. Temperatures are likely to be around normal, but could be rather cold overnight in more settled spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Chilly winds next week


• Milder change in the month


• Drier theme for February

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2020/01/24/john-hammonds-month-ahead-whats-emerging-february/

Wednesday 29 Jan - Friday 7 Feb

At the start of the period, there will be rain spreading across the north, with some hill snow at times. Potential for some gales in the northwest. Breezy with showers in the south, with the brightest weather mostly in the east. Continuing through the period, a mobile westerly pattern will lead to some changeable weather. Spells of rain and strong winds, with possible gales, will continue across the UK. There could also be some brighter and colder periods at times, with some lighter showers. Any snow during the period will be confined to the northerly hills. Temperatures will fluctuate from mild to cold. Towards the end of the period, the changeable weather will continue, but a northwest-southeast split will begin to develop.

Friday 7 Feb - Friday 21 Feb

Early February will see the northwest-southeast split continuing, with the northwest seeing the unsettled weather, with the southeast remaining drier. Into the middle of the month, it is likely to trend to more anticyclonic conditions, with drier weather across the south and southeast, eventually spreading northwestwards. The north will continue to be at risk of outbreaks of rain and stronger winds at times. Overnight fog and frosts will be likely, and these could be persistent at times. Temperatures around normal, and sometimes above. There could be large diurnal ranges in the more settled periods, given enough sunshine.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A changeable pattern. Wet and windy at times.

_________________________________

Saturday 25 January – Sunday 2 February

A return to windier and unsettled weather

Recently, high pressure has brought rather calm and often dry conditions for many. However, the high pressure area is set to move away, opening the door to wetter and windier conditions from the west. We will start to see changes in our weather this weekend. After a mostly dry but rather cloudy day on Saturday, Sunday looks set to become wetter and breezier with rain spreading from the west. On Sunday night, colder air looks like spreading from the west with a mixture of rain and snow spreading eastwards. Snow will be most likely over hills and in the north, perhaps with some significant snowfall over the Southern Uplands of Scotland.

Chillier conditions will then persist through Monday and Tuesday next week. It is likely to stay breezy with showers, these most frequent over the western UK and southern counties of England. Snow showers are likely over hills in Wales, Northern Ireland, northwest England and Scotland, with accumulations at times. A gradual change to milder conditions looks likely for the middle to latter part of next week. However, it is likely to still be wet and windy at times. The most frequent rainfall looks set to be over northwestern parts of the UK. Western Scotland could be particularly wet.

Monday 3 February – Sunday 9 February

Wet and windy at first but drier later

The first full week of February looks like being a week of two halves. Through the first half of the week, we are likely to see a persistence of wet and windy conditions. Again, the rain could be heavy and prolonged over northwestern areas. Rain should be more infrequent further south and east. There are signs that the second half of the week should see a change in weather as high pressure extends from the south. This area of high pressure is expected to bring a drier and calmer end to the week. However, as winds ease, we could see the return of mist and fog in places, especially over England and Wales. Currently, there is some uncertainty around the timing of this change.

Monday 10 February – Sunday 23 February

More rain and wind at times but mild

Any drier and calmer weather is likely to be short-lived. Through the second and third weeks of February, a return of low pressure systems from the Atlantic look set to bring a return to wetter and windier conditions. Once again, the wettest and windiest conditions are likely to be over northwestern parts of the UK. Western Scotland and Northern Ireland could see well above average rainfall. However, all areas are likely to have some wet and windy weather at times as weather systems move from west to east across the country. Overall, the mild theme is likely to persist, with temperatures often either near or above the February average. There should be a lack of any significant or widespread snow. Night frosts are likely to be less frequent than usual too. There is a risk that we could see one or two stormy episodes for a time.

Further ahead

Will the unsettled but mild outlook continue or could there be signs of more wintry weather on the way?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 30 Jan - Saturday 8 Feb

Rather unsettled to start the period, with rain possibly affecting northern and western areas, as well as some coastal gales in the northwest. The south and east could stay mostly dry and bright. Generally mild. Continuing through the period, a mobile westerly pattern will lead to some changeable weather. Spells of rain and strong winds, with possible gales, will continue across the UK. There could also be some brighter and colder periods at times, with some lighter showers. Any snow during the period will be confined to the northerly hills. Temperatures will fluctuate from mild to cold. Towards the end of the period, the changeable weather will continue, but a northwest-southeast split will begin to develop.

Saturday 8 Feb - Saturday 22 Feb

Early February will see the northwest-southeast split continuing, with the northwest seeing the unsettled weather, with the southeast remaining drier. Into the middle of the month, it is likely to trend to more anticyclonic conditions, with drier weather across the south and southeast, eventually spreading northwestwards. The north will continue to be at risk of outbreaks of rain and stronger winds at times. Overnight fog and frosts will be likely, and these could be persistent at times. Temperatures around normal, and sometimes above. There could be large diurnal ranges in the more settled periods, given enough sunshine.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Friday 31 Jan - Sunday 9 Feb

Often windy with outbreaks of rain and showers for all areas at the start of this period, with temperatures on the mild side of the seasonal average. As we head through the first full week of February it currently looks most likely that we will see a gradual trend towards more settled conditions, particularly in the south, and there is a chance that these will extend across the whole country at times. Overnight fog and frosts are likely to accompany these more settled conditions, with light winds and temperatures probably nearer to the average for the time of year. The far north, and particularly north-west, will probably remain more changeable, or unsettled, with further spells of wind and rain.

Sunday 9 Feb - Sunday 23 Feb

The first part of the period is likely to trend to more anticyclonic conditions, with the associated drier and more settled weather intially in the southeast, spreading northwestwards and beginning to dominate. The north will continue to be at risk from outbreaks of rain and stronger winds at times. Overnight frosts and fog will be likely, which could be persistent at times. Temperatures around normal, and sometimes a little above. There could be large variations between night time and day time temperatures in the more settled spells, especially on the sunnier days.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Quite a deluge to the southwest of London. Looks like a significant weather event & I'm surprised there doesn't appear to be a warning out. (Just had a lightning strike here in Berkhamsted). Latest radar view here https://t.co/ad9o5ZgHqv pic.twitter.com/59E2fDNrt4

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) January 27, 2020

Saturday 1 Feb - Monday 10 Feb

Often windy with outbreaks of rain and showers for all areas at the start of this period, with temperatures on the mild side of the seasonal average. As we head through the first full week of February it currently looks most likely that we will see a gradual trend towards more settled conditions, particularly in the south, and there is a chance that these will extend across the whole country at times. Overnight fog and frosts are likely to accompany these more settled conditions, with light winds and temperatures probably nearer to the average for the time of year. The far north, and particularly north-west, will probably remain more changeable, or unsettled, with further spells of wind and rain.

Monday 10 Feb - Monday 24 Feb

The first part of the period is likely to trend to more anticyclonic conditions, with the associated drier and more settled weather intially in the southeast, spreading northwestwards and beginning to dominate. The north will continue to be at risk from outbreaks of rain and stronger winds at times. Overnight frosts and fog will be likely, which could be persistent at times. Temperatures around normal, and sometimes a little above. There could be large variations between night time and day time temperatures in the more settled spells, especially on the sunnier days.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Saturday 1 Feb - Monday 10 Feb

Often windy with outbreaks of rain and showers for all areas at the start of this period, with temperatures on the mild side of the seasonal average. As we head through the first full week of February it currently looks most likely that we will see a gradual trend towards more settled conditions, particularly in the south, and there is a chance that these will extend across the whole country at times. Overnight fog and frosts are likely to accompany these more settled conditions, with light winds and temperatures probably nearer to the average for the time of year. The far north, and particularly north-west, will probably remain more changeable, or unsettled, with further spells of wind and rain.

Monday 10 Feb - Monday 24 Feb

The first part of the period is likely to trend to more anticyclonic conditions, with the associated drier and more settled weather intially in the southeast, spreading northwestwards and beginning to dominate. The north will continue to be at risk from outbreaks of rain and stronger winds at times. Overnight frosts and fog will be likely, which could be persistent at times. Temperatures around normal, and sometimes a little above. There could be large variations between night time and day time temperatures in the more settled spells, especially on the sunnier days.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Good to see they've got rid of diurnal. It sounded as though it had been written by someone fresh out of university.

Sunday 2 Feb - Tuesday 11 Feb

After a wet and windy day Sunday, the beginning of next week will remain unsettled with outbreaks of rain or showers. Thereafter, we should see the dominance of high pressure across the UK. This will allow a shift towards more settled conditions with a good deal of sunshine across most parts. Northern and eastern areas are likely to start this period cold with a chance of wintry showers, these likely falling as snow to relatively low levels at times. Towards the end of next week, the settled weather will spread further east with plenty of sunny spells by day and a risk of frost by night. Following this, it looks to stay mostly dry but it may turn increasingly cloudy towards the middle of February with possible overnight fog.

Tuesday 11 Feb - Tuesday 25 Feb

This period seems to trend towards a more typical northwest/southeast divide. The southeast should hold on to the drier and calmer weather for a while longer with a continued risk of overnight frost and fog. Further north, it will turn increasingly unsettled with outbreaks of rain and strong winds at times. Temperatures will gradually return towards normal, but will remain a little below average during the settled spell in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Mainly mild with spells of wet, windy weather

_________________________________

Wednesday 29 January – Sunday 2 February

Staying unsettled but milder by the weekend

So far, the week has been rather chilly and unsettled. We've seen snow in some areas, these mainly across Scotland but with wintry showers as far south as the moors of Devon.
There have been a couple of cold nights too. The main change expected for the second half of the week is that we expect it to become milder. This is due to winds coming mainly from the west and south-west, pushing warmer air across the country. It will be most noticeable this weekend when daytime temperatures could reach 13 or 14 Celsius in the warmest parts of the country. That's much warmer than the highs of 6 to 8 Celsius we saw earlier this week. The nights will become less cold too so there won't be much risk of a frost on Friday, Saturday or Sunday night.

One thing that won't change is the unsettled weather. Low pressure remains in the driving seat for much of the rest of the week. We expect a series of weather systems to move across the UK between now and Sunday. Each system will bring showers and rain, with western parts of the country very wet. However, with temperatures on the rise the risk of snow away from the mountains decreases. There will also be fresh to strong winds at times, and some areas of the UK could see gales, most likely Scotland.

Monday 3 February – Sunday 9 February

Wet and windy at first, drier and colder later

The first full week of February looks like starting mild, wet and windy. Low pressure will remain close by on Monday, so it looks windy with showers and longer spells of rain across the country. It will also be a little milder than normal for the time of year. Tuesday will see low pressure shifting eastwards towards the North Sea, but it will take time to do so and another unsettled and windy day looks likely. It does look less mild on Tuesday. The big changes to the weather are expected around the middle of next week. As our low pressure system finally shifts off into Scandinavia, a spell of northerly winds will develop. There will be quite a dramatic drop in temperatures compared to the preceding weekend, and we can expect a return to overnight frosts.

Snow showers look likely for northern Scotland and wintry showers may push onto North Sea coasts of England too. We'll also start to see a ridge of high pressure building to the south-west of the UK around mid-week. As this ridge extends northwards it will cut off the flow of weather from the Atlantic, giving us drier and calmer weather for the end of the week. The main uncertainty is exactly how quickly and how far the ridge extends northwards. There is a chance that it doesn't cut off the Atlantic weather completely or does so for only a short time. That would mean that next weekend is wetter and windier than we expected, but it would be less cold too.

Monday 10 February – Sunday 23 February

A return to unsettled but mild weather

The drier, calmer but cooler weather we expect at the end of next week is only expected to be short-lived. Through the second and third weeks of February, we will likely see low pressure areas moving in from the Atlantic again. This means a return to wetter, windier but milder weather. Whilst all areas will be affected by the more unsettled weather, the wettest and windiest conditions are likely to be over north-western parts of the UK. Western Scotland and Northern Ireland could see well-above average rainfall and perhaps gales at times. Overall, it is expected to be milder than normal for late winter with temperatures either near or above average. There should be a lack of any significant or widespread snow. Night frosts are likely to be less frequent than usual too.

Since December, we've seen a pattern for the unsettled weather to be punctuated by calmer, drier spells every week to ten days. That looks as though it could happen again later this month. There are indications of a ridge of high pressure starting to build later in the month, so it may be that there is another short break from the unsettled weather before we reach the end of February. It may even become chillier for a time, but we should note that at this stage we don't see any indications of any sustained cold weather setting in.

Further ahead

The next update should take us to the end of Meteorological Winter, but will there be any wintry weather in the forecast?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook