BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Mainly mild with spells of wet and windy weather

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Saturday 11 January – Sunday 19 January

Mixed this weekend and stormy at times next week

The weather this week has been wet and windy at times, but there have been some drier and calmer periods too. Temperatures have, on the whole, been above normal for the time of year. There will be little change to this pattern this weekend.

Saturday will be a very windy day across all areas of the UK, with gales and severe gales for some and with rain moving south-eastwards to affect all but the south east of England during the day. This rain will be heavy in some areas. The rain will continue south-eastwards overnight and by Sunday morning, will only be affecting the South East, with most of the rest of the UK set to enjoy and dry, bright start to the day. The rest of Sunday will see sunny spells in most areas, but there will be the chance of showers. It will be less windy than Saturday.

Next week will be unsettled with weather systems moving in from the Atlantic at times to give us further spells of wet and windy weather. After a chilly but bright morning in most areas on Monday, the first of the Atlantic systems will start to move in during the second half of the day, with all areas cloudy and windy with a spell of rain. Tuesday looks likely it could be even windier with gales or severe gales possible and widespread, locally heavy rain moving in from the west.

Wednesday should bring a respite, but another Atlantic weather system is likely to affect us on Thursday and Friday before conditions turn a little less wet and windy next weekend as high pressure to the south starts to exert an influence.

Monday 20 January – Sunday 26 January

Mild, wet and windy

The first half of the week should be relatively dry and calm compared to this week as high pressure centred to our south become more of an influence on our weather for a time. Temperatures look milder than average too.

The relatively settled weather isn't set to last though, as the ridge of high pressure will decline around mid-week, and the end of the week will see more of an Atlantic influence on our weather. The UK as a whole looks wetter and windier than average, with the north and west generally wettest, albeit with spells of rain pushing into southern and eastern areas at times. There will be a similar pattern to the winds - the south and east will see spells of windy weather but the north and west will be the windiest part of the country.

Temperatures are set to remain above normal for the time of year in all areas, so there will be a reduced risk of overnight frosts compared to the average winter. That said, there will still be a chance of the odd cooler night.

Monday 27 January – Sunday 9 February

Becoming less unsettled in February?

There will be little change in the pattern as we move through the last few days of January. The weather across the UK looks wetter and windier than average, with the north and west generally wettest and windiest, whilst the south and east are drier and calmer. Temperatures will still be above normal for the time of year.

As we move into the start of February, we see a slight change in the pattern merging. Low pressure systems which have been tracking across northern and Europe are likely to track a bit further southwards into Europe. This would mean that although still unsettled, we would see less sustained wet and windy weather and should see some drier and calmer periods.

However, after quite a long run of temperatures either at or above normal, it looks as though February will see temperatures generally near normal, or perhaps a little below normal at times. It is worth noting that we still don't see any signs of any sustained spells of cold weather developing.

The main uncertainty to the forecast is how active low pressure will be across northern Europe at the end of January and to what extent activity declines at the start of February. There is a chance that the very unsettled weather persists into the start of February, which would limit the cooler conditions, but this less likely than our expected pattern.

Further ahead

We will take another look at the forecast for the start of February, to see if the cooler weather still looks likely.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 16 Jan - Saturday 25 Jan

Heavy rain and widespread gales, which could be severe in the west, to start the period. Unsettled conditions will continue across most parts through the end of the week, especially the north and west, with further wet and very windy weather likely. Thereafter some longer dry, bright spells may begin to develop although changeable conditions will probably continue. Towards the end of the period, confidence decreases significantly. However there is a chance that settled weather may become widespread across the country, which will increase the chance of frost and fog, particularly for central and southern areas. It will be generally mild to start with, although turning rather cold, should the quieter and more settled, spells develop later in the month.

Saturday 25 Jan - Saturday 8 Feb

Through the end of January into February, we are likely to have higher pressure across the UK than during previous weeks. The northwest will probably see the wettest and windiest weather whilst further south and southeast it should be drier and brighter with an increased risk of frost and fog. There is a chance that drier, settled conditions could extend to all parts at times. Snow will be most likely over northern hills, but it could fall to lower levels at times, mainly in the north, during colder interludes. Temperatures will tend to be close to or above average, but will fluctuate day to day when more changeable weather types are established. There could be some cold spells in southern and central areas in particular if more settled weather develops.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

I thought 10 inches as the Express said yesterday? Now 20 inches?

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1226677/uk-weather-warning-snow-forecast-map-met-office-scotland-snow

I am always keen to know why they always say Britain instead of Scotland? - As if 20 inches of snow will hit the whole of Britain and the whole country could be prepared? I wish some journalists and editors of this far right paper can get fired for misleading front pages and headings!! It happens time and time again when we all know that it's the exact opposite.

What they really were meant to say is "Hills of northern England and Scottish highlands braces itself for snow!" NOT Britain. Doh! Gosh the Express should have taken Geography at A levels. 

 

Another day - yet ANOTHER snow storm to make the front page of Daily Express and yet again they are confusing Scotland with England and really need a geography lesson. The snow is reserved for Scotland and over mountains. Why are they going on about it as BRITAIN as if the whole UK will be covered in snow? Doh! yet again!

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1226906/UK-snow-forecast-weather-charts-map-Met-Office-warning-BBC-Weather-snow-long-range

 

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Friday 17 Jan - Sunday 26 Jan

Although very unsettled conditions will continue to the end of this working week, the weather will probably settle down somewhat next weekend. Generally dry, bright weather will probably be established over many parts by Sunday and these more settled conditions may persist into the middle of next week and perhaps longer. With this it could become rather cold at times with widespread night frosts and fog patches. It will probably stay more unsettled and milder in the northwest with a greater chance of further rain and strong winds here, although a brief colder interlude with wintry showers is possible. Later in the period, confidence is very low. However there is a chance that more unsettled, milder conditions could become re-established, more widely across the UK.

Sunday 26 Jan - Sunday 9 Feb

Through the end of January into February, we are likely to have higher pressure across the UK than during previous weeks. The northwest will probably see the wettest and windiest weather whilst further south and southeast it should be drier and brighter with an increased risk of frost and fog. There is a chance that drier, settled conditions could extend to all parts at times. Snow will be most likely over northern hills, but it could fall to lower levels at times, mainly in the north, during colder interludes. Temperatures will tend to be close to or above average, but will fluctuate day to day when more changeable weather types are established. There could be some cold spells in southern and central areas in particular if more settled weather develops.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Colder outlook on the Met update today 👍 I guess it just reflects what the models are showing as ever! Nice to see though.
May all change tomorrow- we just need some consistency for a few days.

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Saturday 18 Jan - Monday 27 Jan

Although very unsettled conditions will continue to the end of this working week, the weather will likely settle down somewhat next weekend. Generally dry, bright weather will probably be established over many parts by Sunday and these more settled conditions may persist into the middle of next week and perhaps longer. With this it could become rather cold at times with widespread night frosts and fog patches. It will probably stay more unsettled and milder in the northwest with a greater chance of further rain and strong winds here, although a brief colder interlude with wintry showers is possible. Later in the period, confidence is very low. However there is a chance that more unsettled, milder conditions could become re-established, more widely across the UK.

Monday 27 Jan - Monday 10 Feb

Through the end of January into February, we are likely to have higher pressure across the UK than during previous weeks. The northwest will probably see the wettest and windiest weather whilst further south and southeast it should be drier and brighter with an increased risk of frost and fog. There is a chance that drier, settled conditions could extend to all parts at times. Snow will be most likely over northern hills, but it could fall to lower levels at times, mainly in the north, during colder interludes. Temperatures will tend to be close to or above average, but will fluctuate day to day when more changeable weather types are established. There could be some cold spells in southern and central areas in particular if more settled weather develops.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

https://extra.ie/2020/01/14/entertainment/movies-tv/piers-morgan-sexist-weather-trousers 

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Sunday 19 Jan - Tuesday 28 Jan

After a largely dry and bright day on Sunday, the settled conditions seem likely to continue into the middle of next week. Most places are expected to see a good deal of dry, quiet weather with plenty of bright or sunny spells throughout, especially in the south. During the overnight periods, it looks possible for fog patches to form, some of these slow to clear during the day. Through next week, it seems to turn somewhat colder, particularly across central and southern areas of the UK, with widespread frosts developing overnight at times. Towards the latter part of this period, the north/northwest may turn more unsettled with the arrival of wetter, winder and milder weather.

Tuesday 28 Jan - Tuesday 11 Feb

Through the end of January and into February, high pressure looks most likely to dominate across the UK, especially in the south. Looking further ahead, there seems to be a move to a broadly north/south split. The north and northwest will probably see the wettest and windiest weather whilst further south and southeast, it should be drier and brighter with frost and fog likely overnight. During colder, showery interludes, any snow will most likely be over higher ground in the north, but it could fall to lower levels at times. Temperatures will remain close to or above average through the period, though may fluctuate with the passage of more changeable weather. There could be some colder spells in southern and central areas, should any more prolonged settled spells develop.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

 

They are at it again.🙄

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1225155/UK-snow-forecast-weather-charts-map-Met-Office-warning-BBC-Weather

 

 

And again...

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1228300/UK-snow-forecast-weather-charts-long-range-Met-Office-warning-BBC-Weather

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And again...

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1228300/UK-snow-forecast-weather-charts-long-range-Met-Office-warning-BBC-Weather

If they wrote truthful, informative stories, they wouldn't sell any papers and would go bust. They aren't trying to be accurate, they're trying to make money. They will always do this. End of. 

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Local BBC South just mentioned that there was a lot of rain/wind from Storm Brendan last night even though so called Brendan was the first storm that's long gone and yesterday's the one with no name...

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https://extra.ie/2020/01/14/entertainment/movies-tv/piers-morgan-sexist-weather-trousers 

Well...they're certainly noticeable trousers 

Monday 20 Jan - Wednesday 29 Jan

After a largely dry and bright weekend, the settled conditions seem likely to continue through Monday and into the middle of next week. Most places are expected to see a good deal of dry, quiet weather with plenty of bright or sunny spells throughout, especially in the south. During the overnight periods, it looks possible for fog patches to form, some of these slow to clear during the day. Through next week, it seems to turn somewhat colder, particularly across central and southern areas of the UK, with widespread frosts developing overnight at times. Towards the latter part of this period, the north/northwest may turn more unsettled with the arrival of wetter, winder and milder weather.

Wednesday 29 Jan - Wednesday 12 Feb

Through the end of January and into February, high pressure looks most likely to dominate across the UK, especially in the south. Looking further ahead, there seems to be a move to a broadly north/south split. The north and northwest will probably see the wettest and windiest weather whilst further south and southeast, it should be drier and brighter with frost and fog likely overnight. During colder, showery interludes, any snow will most likely be over higher ground in the north, but it could fall to lower levels at times. Temperatures will remain close to or above average through the period, though may fluctuate with the passage of more changeable weather. There could be some colder spells in southern and central areas, should any more prolonged settled spells develop.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

​

 Met office 10 Day trend

Next 10 Days

Calmer and colder and drier... for how long

Weekend

All change
Calmer and drier
Frosty mornings

Next week

Largely dry
Colder
Lighter winds

 

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https://twitter.com/liamdutton/status/1217817199219544065 

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Wednesday 22 Jan - Friday 31 Jan

After a frosty start on Wednesday, most places are expected to be cloudy but with a good deal of dry and calm weather. The odd spot of rain is possible, this becoming more persistent over the north of Scotland. Looking further into the week there is likely to be a north/south split; where the south will be dry and cloudy with light winds whilst the north could be wetter and windier at times. Later on in this period, some rain may briefly spread further southeast across the UK, although the most unsettled weather is likely to remain in the north and northwest, where some hill snow is possible. Further southeast drier spells will be accompanied by the best of any brightness, along with the greatest risk of fog and frost.

Friday 31 Jan - Friday 14 Feb

Through the first half of February, we are likely to see a north/south split continuing; with the north being more unsettled than the south. The heaviest of the rainfall and strongest winds are likely to be seen across the northwest. The southeast is more likely to see drier, brighter conditions with light winds. There is potentially a greater risk of frost and fog patches developing towards the southeast. During colder, showery interludes, any snow will most likely be over higher ground in the north, but it could fall to lower levels at times. Temperatures will remain close to or above average through the period, though will likely fluctuate as frontal systems pass through, especially in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

According to the media in Japan it’s been the worst ski season for over a 100 years. Many of the main resorts have had less than 1 metre of snow but with temperatures well above what’s expected this has melted soon after falling.
Some of the highest drifts in previous years have been reported in Japan with bus tours to see them. This year so far they don’t exist.

My Daughter choose this year to work in the Ski resorts there and it’s dire.

It appears that any location below 60 degrees north is having a poor winter with semi permanent high pressure stuck between 40-50 degrees north...

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John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Frosty spell


• Eyes to the north


• Drier again into February

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2020/01/17/john-hammonds-month-ahead-time-dry-out-last/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Milder than average with some long dry spells

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Saturday 18 January – Sunday 26 January

Clear, cold weekend followed by a dull, dry week

After a fairly stormy and unsettled week, this weekend we will see a strong high pressure system build over the UK from the southwest. This will push stronger winds and rain into extreme northern Scotland and the Northern Isles, leaving the rest of the country dry and fine. However, clearer skies and calmer winds will make for some chilly nights, with temperatures widely dropping below zero overnight. Frost is likely for many and there may be pockets of freezing fog in places. Next week, high pressure is likely to cling on and prevent any rain from falling anywhere away from northern Scotland but there will be a change nonetheless.

A very weak weather front is expected to slowly slide southwards from Scotland on Monday. This will bring milder air into Scotland but also thick low cloud across the UK by Monday night. This will lead to milder nights for the working week. However, it will also tend to be rather dull and dreary during the day with overcast skies. Any glimpses of sunshine will likely be at a premium for most. This pattern will stay in place into the following weekend, with weak fronts bringing light rain or drizzle into northern Scotland while the rest of the country is grey but dry. It is likely there will be a gradual pattern shift on Saturday 25th and Sunday 26th with high pressure declining slightly. This will allow rain to reach ever further south, although it will probably be quite dry in the southwest.

Monday 27 January – Sunday 2 February

Gradually more unsettled and less mild

The end of January and first few days of February will continue the gradual pattern shift that started the previous weekend. High pressure is likely to slink away to the southwest while low pressure become stronger and more widespread in Scandinavia. This will see temperatures overall become less mild (but still a touch above average) throughout the UK while things turn windier and a bit wetter. Most of the rain is expected to stay in northern counties, mainly Scotland but occasionally fronts will reach all areas. Winds will bring in cooler air and brisk winter winds along the east coast may feel quite biting. There may be a few very windy days for Scotland and perhaps Northern Ireland, with fronts likely to spend a good deal of time draped across the northern coast.

With near normal temperatures there is a risk of lowland snow for far northern Scotland but it is not expected to impact the Central Belt. Further south, wintry weather is not expected although there may be one or two chilly and frosty nights. These will tend to be associated with clear skies and therefore, dry weather. The main uncertainty with the forecast is that the UK is on a knife edge between two different weather patterns and minor shifts in the expected location of the high pressure system could make for a rather different looking forecast. There is a roughly 35% risk that it could look a bit drier and calmer, with mild air maintaining its presence over the country. There are not any strong signals for prolonged cold outbreaks though, so lowland snow for most of the UK is unlikely.

Monday 3 February – Sunday 16 February

Overall mild and dry; occasional rain in places

The first half of February looks like it will tend to be on the milder side of average with high pressure likely to linger nearby or overhead. This will mean a continuation of the calm, dry weather for the southern half of the country as weak fronts are pushed off to the north. However, there will be some rainy spells at times as fronts make it into the UK and it is likely there will be a few chillier days and nights despite the overall mild trend. High pressure is expected to amplify in early February as the low pressure over Scandinavia from late-January weakens. This will bring in some mild, tropical air from the southwest and push weather fronts off to the north. It is likely that the Northern Isles will stay wet and windy while further south the weather will tend to be fine and dry.

Heading into the second week of February low pressure tracks will likely creep closer to the UK from Iceland, bringing a return of more unsettled weather and some stronger winds, especially for Northern Ireland and Scotland. Occasionally during some weaker lulls in the ridge of high pressure, a front will cross the UK and bring rain into England and Wales. However, it is likely that they will be few and far between, with some lengthy dry spells. Similarly to the end of January, there is some uncertainty in the exact strength and location of the high, and since we are on the edge of it this could lead to large variations in the forecast. Confidence overall is only medium as a result but there is high confidence that it won't be colder than average and winter weather is expected to be confined to the Scottish Highlands.

Further ahead

While it doesn't look like February will be too cold, we will try to pin down the high pressure and see just how mild it might get.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 23 Jan - Saturday 1 Feb

Into the weekend it is expected to be largely dry and settled with bright spells and light winds, although staying cloudy for most. This will continue for the south further into the following week, whilst the north could be wetter and windier at times. Later on in this period, some rain may briefly spread further southeast across the UK, although the most unsettled weather is likely to remain in the north and northwest, where some hill snow is possible. Further southeast drier spells will be accompanied by the best of any brightness, along with the greatest risk of fog and frost. Temperatures will generally be near average, although a little below at times in the north.

Saturday 1 Feb - Saturday 15 Feb

Through the first half of February, we are likely to see a north/south split continuing; with the north being more unsettled than the south. The heaviest of the rainfall and strongest winds are likely to be seen across the northwest. The south is more likely to see drier, brighter conditions with light winds. There is potentially a greater risk of frost and fog patches developing towards the south. During colder, showery interludes, any snow will most likely be over higher ground in the north, but it could fall to lower levels at times. Temperatures will remain close to or above average through the period, though will likely fluctuate as frontal systems pass through, especially in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/