More media discussion!

Unfortunately, some people believe what they read in the papers.

This is shockingly awful I must say. 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1207079/UK-snow-warning-met-office-latest-snow-storms-map

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Milder interlude


• Colder start to December


• An Advent of drama

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/11/22/john-hammonds-month-ahead-mild-run-christmas/

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Milder interlude


• Colder start to December


• An Advent of drama

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/11/22/john-hammonds-month-ahead-mild-run-christmas/

That sounds intriguing....

 

That sounds intriguing....

Doesn't it just 

Met Office mentioning a chance of it turning colder at the start of December.

UK LONG RANGE WEATHER FORECAST
Tuesday 26 Nov - Thursday 5 Dec
Colder to start Tuesday with rain spreading from the west, although many staying dry. Remaining unsettled through the rest of next week as weather systems move east or northeast across the UK, bringing bands of rain, interspersed by brighter, showery interludes. The bulk of the rain, possibly heavy at times, seems likely across western and southern areas and it will often be windy, with gales in places. Snow is likely on northern hills at times, more especially later in the period. It should be generally milder than of late, though still feeling cold at times in bouts of strong winds or rain. Confidence becomes relatively low by early December but there is a chance of it turning colder again with frost/fog in the North and unsettled weather persisting further south.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Fri 22 Nov 2019

Friday 6 Dec - Friday 20 Dec
Unsettled weather is expected for much of the period with weather systems bringing bouts of rain and strong winds across the UK from the southwest, interspersed by brighter, showery interludes. The bulk of the rain seems more likely in western parts of the UK with longer drier spells likely across the east. Snow is likely at times in the north, mainly over high ground. Some quieter, drier, colder spells are also likely, giving night frosts and some fog. These may occur more frequently in the north in the early part of this period but confidence for this aspect is very low. However temperatures for the most part are expected to be near or slightly above average, for the time of year.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Fri 22 Nov 2019

I think that is still yesterday's update, although I could be wrong. 

Met updated the update....

A most definite upgrade 👍👍👍 Sorry, can't post link.

Wednesday 27 Nov - Friday 6 Dec

Wednesday looks set to be a continuation of the wet theme, though rain may become lighter and push away to the southeast of the UK later. Temperatures around average in the south, but beginning to turn colder in the North. Next weekend looks likely to be rather unsettled, with some sunny spells and showers, which could often be wintry, even to low ground in the north. Cold or rather cold in the north, with widespread frost and ice likely, but perhaps mild for a time in the far south and southwest. The following week looks set to remain cold for many, as the potential for wintry showers in the north continues and may spread to higher ground in the south. The best chance of dry weather in the south/southeast.

Saturday 7 Dec - Saturday 21 Dec

The period is likely begin on the cold side for most regions, with snow showers at times in the north, and perhaps over high ground in the south. Widespread frosts and ice are likely to continue to be a hazard. There is likely to be change around mid-month to milder conditions, although the timing is very uncertain. This change will likely bring milder and wetter conditions across most parts of the UK, allowing temperatures to recover to around average, or perhaps slightly above. The wettest conditions are likely to be in the north and west, with an increased likelihood of drier spells in the south and south east. Colder interludes are still possible, mainly in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Surprisingly big upgrade there.

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Further wet weather to come, then turning colder

_________________________________

Saturday 23 November – Sunday 1 December

Somewhat milder for a time with rain, then colder

Over this weekend, Saturday will be the wetter of the two days for many areas, with spells of heavy rain working their way northwards across the country. On Sunday, some places could start foggy, especially in the south. Many places will then have a dry, if fairly cloudy, day. Further rain arriving in the south-west later. For the first half of next week it looks like further bouts of rain will move across from the west, especially for central and southern areas. For many, it will be somewhat milder than of late, especially by night.

From around mid-week onwards, a colder north-easterly wind looks likely to push across the northern half of the UK, and this colder air will then edge southwards for the end of the week and into the weekend. There is some uncertainty over how quickly this will occur though. This brings the threat of some wintry weather in places, especially in the north, and some sharp overnight frosts. There is also a slight chance of rain and snow pushing into some southern areas as fronts encroach here.

Monday 2 December – Sunday 8 December

Cold at first, but likely to turn milder

The signals for a more unsettled, mild and potentially windy spell of weather through early to mid December are still present, although the latest trends in the guidance tend to push this back a little. The start of this week is likely to be rather cold, with further overnight frosts likely, along with a few wintry showers, especially across northern and some eastern areas. The detail on this is quite complex and will need firming on as we get nearer the time via the short to midrange weather forecasts. Through the course of the week, indications are that the colder air will gradually move away to the south-east, with less cold air arriving from the west and north-west, but confidence is quite low on how quickly this transition may occur.

Through Friday 6th and into the weekend, we can expect the north Atlantic jet stream to become active near the UK, pushing areas of low pressure across us once again. This pattern is suggesting milder, but also potentially very wet and windy conditions. Northern and western area seem most exposed to the worst of the wind and rain. This is because a high pressure ridge over France may still be close enough to the south of the UK to deflect some of the fronts away from here and offer some drier interludes.

Monday 9 December – Sunday 22 December

General Election Week is looking mild but also wet

The outlook during the middle of December should be influenced by an active low pressure track across the north Atlantic, passing close to Scotland and then into Scandinavia. During November, the predominant low pressure track has been over southern England or even down over France and Spain. This has prevented the UK from being influenced by the mild south-westerly winds that often accompany our wet weather in winter, so it has been chilly and also wet. The mid-December pattern should be more typical of a UK winter and bring the heaviest rain and strongest winds to northern and western areas, while the southern and eastern half will have some drier interludes between the fronts. Mild on many days.

So for General Election week, and polling day itself on Thursday 12th, the most likely conditions will be mild, with some spells of rain and blustery winds sweeping across the UK. Any colder interludes between the frontal rain bands should be brief, so at the moment the main weather hazards could be related to the wind and rainfall. On the flip side, high pressure over Spain and France will occasionally nudge up into southern areas and bring some calmer and drier days during mid-December.

Looking beyond mid-month and while most indications are for the mainly mild and quite wet and windy pattern to continue, we cannot rule out another cold snap. Wind and temperature patterns high in the Polar Stratosphere (10-20km above the North Pole) are showing signs of significantly changing during December. This can lead to increased forecast uncertainty for a while, but also the chance for colder air to dig back in from the north.

Further ahead

As the holiday season appears on the horizon we'll take an early look at the chances of any colder weather through the Christmas period.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Further wet weather to come, then turning colder.

Looking beyond mid-month and while most indications are for the mainly mild and quite wet and windy pattern to continue, we cannot rule out another cold snap. Wind and temperature patterns high in the Polar Stratosphere (10-20km above the North Pole) are showing signs of significantly changing during December. This can lead to increased forecast uncertainty for a while, but also the chance for colder air to dig back in from the north.

Further ahead

As the holiday season appears on the horizon we'll take an early look at the chances of any colder weather through the Christmas period.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

[/quote

No change then.

However, a subtle way of saying there could be a SSW?

---

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com

Thursday 28 Nov - Saturday 7 Dec

Thursday looks to be unsettled with areas of rain or showers initially. The rain may become lighter and patchier later allowing for some bright spells to develop. Temperatures around average in the south, but beginning to turn colder in the north. Next weekend looks to be rather unsettled, with some sunny spells and showers, which could turn wintry even to low ground in the north. Cold or rather cold in the north, with widespread frost and ice likely, but perhaps mild for a time in the far south and southwest. The beginning of December looks to remain cold for many, as the potential for wintry showers in the north continues and may spread to higher ground in the south. The best chance of dry weather in the south/southeast.

Sunday 8 Dec - Sunday 22 Dec

The period is likely to begin on the cold side for most regions, with wintry showers at times in the north, and perhaps over high ground in the south. Widespread frosts and ice are also likely. There looks to be a change around mid-month to milder conditions, although the timing is very uncertain. This change looks likely to bring milder and wetter conditions across most parts of the UK, allowing temperatures to recover to around average, or perhaps slightly above. The wettest conditions are likely to be in the north and west, with an increased likelihood of drier spells in the south and southeast. Colder interludes are still possible, mainly in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Thursday 28 Nov - Saturday 7 Dec

Thursday looks to be unsettled with areas of rain or showers initially. The rain may become lighter and patchier later allowing for some bright spells to develop. Temperatures around average in the south, but beginning to turn colder in the north. Next weekend looks to be rather unsettled, with some sunny spells and showers, which could turn wintry even to low ground in the north. Cold or rather cold in the north, with widespread frost and ice likely, but perhaps mild for a time in the far south and southwest. The beginning of December looks to remain cold for many, as the potential for wintry showers in the north continues and may spread to higher ground in the south. The best chance of dry weather in the south/southeast.

Sunday 8 Dec - Sunday 22 Dec

The period is likely to begin on the cold side for most regions, with wintry showers at times in the north, and perhaps over high ground in the south. Widespread frosts and ice are also likely. There looks to be a change around mid-month to milder conditions, although the timing is very uncertain. This change looks likely to bring milder and wetter conditions across most parts of the UK, allowing temperatures to recover to around average, or perhaps slightly above. The wettest conditions are likely to be in the north and west, with an increased likelihood of drier spells in the south and southeast. Colder interludes are still possible, mainly in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Saturday 30 Nov - Monday 9 Dec

Saturday will be dry and cold for most with plenty of sunshine once any freezing fog patches clear. A few coastal wintry showers are likely across northern and northeastern Scotland. Turning cloudier in the south throughout the day with outbreaks of rain possible, especially in the far southwest. Feeling cold with strong winds and widespread frost possible overnight away from the far south. There is also a risk of gales in exposed parts. The start of December looks to remain cold for many with overnight frost and fog possible with a risk of ice. Any showers could be wintry in the north and over the hills at times further south. It is likely to remain dry elsewhere.

Tuesday 10 Dec - Tuesday 24 Dec

The period is likely to begin on the cold side for most regions, with wintry showers at times in the north, and perhaps over high ground in the south. Widespread frosts and ice are also likely. There looks to be a change around mid-month to milder conditions, although the timing is very uncertain. This change looks likely to bring milder and wetter conditions across most parts of the UK, allowing temperatures to recover to around average, or perhaps slightly above. The wettest conditions are likely to be in the north and west, with an increased likelihood of drier spells in the south and southeast. Colder interludes are still possible, mainly in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Sunday 1 Dec - Tuesday 10 Dec

There will be plenty of sunshine around on Sunday, however northern Scotland and northeast England may see some scattered, possibly wintry, showers throughout the day. Turning rather cold with widespread overnight frost as well as some freezing fog patches. Through next week, most places should be dry and cloudy, though outbreaks of rain and strong winds are possible in northern areas at times. Becoming milder in the north whereas the south could see temperatures below average for the time of year with some possible overnight frost developing. Moving into December, the unsettled conditions across the north look likely to spread southwards bringing spells of rain or showers with some brighter interludes to most parts of the UK.

Wednesday 11 Dec - Wednesday 25 Dec

This period looks likely to bring outbreaks of rain interspersed with brighter spells and showers to most parts. Temperatures seem likely to remain around or rather below average for the time of year, especially in the north and northwest with a risk of snow across the Scottish mountains.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Sunday 1 Dec - Tuesday 10 Dec

There will be plenty of sunshine around on Sunday, however northern Scotland and northeast England may see some scattered, possibly wintry, showers throughout the day. Turning rather cold with widespread overnight frost as well as some freezing fog patches. Through next week, most places should be dry and cloudy, though outbreaks of rain and strong winds are possible in northern areas at times. Becoming milder in the north whereas the south could see temperatures below average for the time of year with some possible overnight frost developing. Moving into December, the unsettled conditions across the north look likely to spread southwards bringing spells of rain or showers with some brighter interludes to most parts of the UK.

Wednesday 11 Dec - Wednesday 25 Dec

This period looks likely to bring outbreaks of rain interspersed with brighter spells and showers to most parts. Temperatures seem likely to remain around or rather below average for the time of year, especially in the north and northwest with a risk of snow across the Scottish mountains.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Ok so around or rather below average now and not the slightly above? as per yesterday's and previous updates? OK! 

All good to me but poor forecast from Met Office

I think we could be in for some cold zonality in this case then!

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Cold and dry for a time, but unsettled next month

_________________________________

Wednesday 27 November – Sunday 1 December

Turning drier but becoming colder too

Low pressure has dominated the weather so far this week, but we are expecting a change to somewhat drier weather over the next couple of days. The catch is that whilst it becomes drier it will also become colder. There is more rain to come before we get to the drier weather. Wednesday will be cloudy with showers and longer spells of rain affecting most parts of the country. Some areas will see fairly persistent rain which may become heavy at times. Thursday should see the rain starting to clear southwards, but it will be a slow affair and the rain is likely to linger across some areas of England and Wales through much of the day. Scotland and Northern Ireland will become drier though but will also see chilly north to north-easterly winds starting to develop. By Friday, most of the UK will be dry with just a few showers along North Sea coasts and perhaps over the far south-west of England too. It will be a cool day and Friday night will bring a widespread frost.

There could also be some mist and fog and perhaps some patches of freezing fog. Saturday will see a low pressure system moving in from the Atlantic. There is some uncertainty over the path this system will follow, but it could bring some rain to South West England and Wales during the day, and southern counties of England overnight. There were some concerns that there was a risk of snow over high ground, but this risk seems to have decreased. The rest of the country should be dry during Saturday and on Saturday night with a frost likely. Sunday should be a largely dry and bright, but will it be chilly - appropriately enough for the start of meteorological winter.

Monday 2 December – Sunday 8 December

Turning milder and more unsettled next week

Next week will start on a chilly note with a frost possible on Monday morning. Apart from the far north of Scotland, it will be a dry day with sunny periods for most areas. Monday night looks to continue the largely dry theme, and it will be another chilly night, perhaps with some mist and fog developing. It looks as though there will be little change on Tuesday, with most of the UK likely to be dry with sunny spells during the day, but another chilly night to follow.

The middle of the week is when we expect to see the beginning of a change in the weather. Winds are expected to turn more westerly, with the Atlantic becoming increasingly influential. The weather is expected to become cloudier, wetter and windier, but it should become milder too with temperatures returning to nearer normal for the time of year. There is a bit of uncertainty over this change from cool and dry to milder and wetter weather. Whilst we expect the transition to begin around mid-week it could be a bit earlier or a bit later. There is also a chance that the far south and south-west of the UK could hold on to the drier conditions almost until the end of the week, depending on how close high pressure remains.

Monday 9 December – Monday 23 December

Staying unsettled with temperatures near normal

The broadly unsettled theme is expected to continue during the middle couple of weeks of December. Low pressure systems are expected to move in from the north Atlantic, passing close to or across the UK as they head towards Scandinavia. During November, the predominant low pressure track has been over southern England or even down over France and Spain. This has prevented the UK from being influenced by the mild south-westerly winds that often accompany our wet weather in winter, so it has been chilly and also wet! The mid-December pattern should be more typical of a UK winter, so whilst it looks like we will see bouts of wet and possibly windy weather, temperatures should be nearer normal for the time of year.

The week of the General Election looks likely to be unsettled with spells of rain and blustery winds sweeping across the UK. Any colder interludes between the frontal rain bands should be brief, so the main weather hazards should be related to the wind and rainfall rather than snow and ice. Looking beyond mid-month and most indications suggest that the unsettled weather will continue. However, we are still monitoring the Arctic stratosphere, as there is a chance that developments here could lead to a spell of colder weather in December. At the moment, whilst there is some uncertainty in the forecast, we don't see any long, drawn out spells of wintry weather developing.

Further ahead

Does the forecast for Christmas week hold any colder weather?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

However, we are still monitoring the Arctic stratosphere, as there is a chance that developments here could lead to a spell of colder weather in December. 

A level 2 cold weather alert is in force for parts of England from Friday to Monday with an 80% chance of severe cold weather

Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 09:06 on Wed 27 Nov 2019

There is an 80% probability of severe cold weather between 0000 on Friday 29th November and 0900 on Monday 2nd December in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

Change to colder condition overnight into Friday and through the weekend, with some very cold overnight temperatures and widespread frosts likely across the northern half of England. Daytime temperatures also remaining in the low single figures of Celsius, especially across rural parts. Mostly places dry, although a few very isolated wintry showers are possible across northeastern coasts. Overnight mist and freezing fog patches are possible across central England, leading to a cold day Saturday. Across the far south and southwest, temperatures could recover a little Saturday, with a small chance of rain. Staying cold, but dry for most Sunday and into Monday.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/?tab=coldWeatherAlert&season=normal#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

Met office CPF 

November update

December to February

Temperature summary

For December and December-January-February as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Impacts from cold weather remain possible, but they are less likely than normal. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for December-January-February will fall into the coldest of our five categories is between 5% and 10% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is between 40% and 45% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-djf-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For December and December-January-February as a whole, above-average precipitation is more likely than below-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for December-January-February will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 10% and 15% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 30% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%)

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-djf-v1.pdf