I've got a sleet symbol on the BBC forecast for MBY for Monday 

 

Monday December 2nd presumably?

I wonder what joys the ECM 12z will bring shortly.

 

Monday December 2nd presumably?

I wonder what joys the ECM 12z will bring shortly.

 

Monday December 2nd presumably?

I wonder what joys the ECM 12z will bring shortly.

It looks not bad to me thus far, Michael.

And soeth a Christmas Pancake is delivered upon thee for the second daye of Decembere

then let the dreaded hairdryer begin

For info there’s been an uptick again in the extent of u wind reduction into early Dec:
http://weatheriscool.com/prod/interactiveTserie.html

GEFS mean approaching a reversal 

Rare agreement by GFS and ECM at 240 hours.

A welcome change to high pressure and a mild flow. I guess it would be too much to ask for this pattern to persist for the next 12 weeks 

Bank ! 

GFS 240 hrs

ECM 240 hrs

Rare agreement by GFS and ECM at 240 hours.

A welcome change to high pressure and a mild flow. I guess it would be too much to ask for this pattern to persist for the next 12 weeks 

Bank ! 

GFS 240 hrs

 

ECM 240 hrs

 

 

Assuming this verifies as indicated, this will certainly come as a big relief to those areas that have been affected by flooding recently, Steve.

Hi all.

So there is another 7 days of mild weather- but Low Pressure and some wet and windy weather is in order and on the table to discuss- affecting the UK & NW Europe.

Tropical Storm Henrietta affects us on Tuesday 26th and Wednesday 27th November.

It could turn colder by Friday but more rain the weekend of 30th Nov- to Sunday 1st December with cold NE winds in SE England as Saturday’s active Deep Low moves off to Denmark and Belgium et all.

High Pressure returns for Monday 2nd and Tuesday 3rd December that has very mild plume of air for the NW then North Atlantic pushing SW winds across there.

Mostly mild for the next 7 days but cold during 1st December. 12z ECMWF, UKMO and GFS show this setup for us.

USA also for same periods seeing See- Saw temperatures and waves of High and Low Pressure areas just like us in NW Europe and UK.

 Assuming this verifies as indicated, this will certainly come as a big relief to those areas that have been affected by flooding recently, Steve.

Pub runs going to be a belter looking at developments of the eastern seaboard/ Newfoundland coast.

Edit: heights over Greeny but doesn’t look solid enough to hold at this point.

I think you were right first time WM ! Looking cold with an improved block

martin

I can't see much to get excited about from a cold/snow point of view.
Looks like some cool air but not cold enough for snow with high pressure edging in around the 10 day mark to bring some welcome dry weather as per Steve's analysis.

Strat temps at 10hpa at 264z shown on 18z GFS run:

The GFS giveth and the GFS taketh away ... Yesterday's 0z northerly promise had turned into a sunbathing session by 12z. At least this morning we're back to something halfway seasonal. So basically the models aren't coping at the moment. With that caution in mind, here goes:

GFS 0z shows LP across the UK this coming week with a little bit of back edge northerly at the end of the week. Then Hp briefly sets up in mid-Atlantic before retreating to our SW and allowing a strong westerly well into Europe by the end of week 2 (Fri 6th) Just a hint after that of the westerly flow being disrupted by colder air from either Greenland or Norway. ECM similar but throws in a bit of a northerly as that mid-Atlantic HP develops

Jetstream strong and to the south of the UK for next week breaking into a more looping pattern after that.

GEFs ens runs show temps a little above average to the 29th, then mostly a little below to the 3rd and then a scatter either side of the seasonal average. Rainfall generally concentrated around the 27th and the 3rd, notably in the south and then some more randomly towards the end (say the 7th)

For the time of year, it seems remarkably resistant over W Russia, Scandinavia and E Europe, to grow any real cold over the coming week. Moscow's spread over the week in the GFS Ens stays well above the LTA, but then it changes dramatically thereafter, right on the month's transition. We need more seasonal cold over these areas to make any use of the decent number of sinking or more southerly tracking lows we've been getting. Add: the northerly option is always there still, of course.

 We need to look a little closer to developments at 120-168 hours.

Good agreement this morning for a cold ridge to extend from Greenland after our departing eastward low introduces a colder N or NW'ly. Circa 120 ish.

All eyes on where the next low enters the mix. A fair few offer a ESE'ly moving slider digging into residual cold air.

Midlands, northwards look favoured for something wintry, the risk extends further south dependant on the track of the next low.

 GFS 168

ECM 168