Met Office Hadley            7.0c.          Anomaly        -0.9c.  Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                         6.92c         Anomaly        -0.01c

Netweather                      7.71c         Anomaly        0.82c

Peasedown St John         8.0c.      Anomaly     0.04c.  

I've gone way too high again 7.9c I am really rubbish at this game. Probably gone 3c to much! 

I'll need a heatwave to get close  After missing a couple of months worth of predictions also, I think the wooden spoon might be coming to Kent this year 

I reckon that was a good call and you’ll be closer than me. I went for 6.5c.  

It could all change Caz; we're only 2/5 of the way through the month. Imagine a jet swing north, and we could be in Dec 15 territory in November!

 

It could all change Caz; we're only 2/5 of the way through the month. Imagine a jet swing north, and we could be in Dec 15 territory in November!

Sorry everyone I am very busy at the moment so well behind on the CET data.

I have managed this evening to pull together a November tracker for you. We are currently in an extended spell of very cold weather which is set to continue until the 19th at least, so another week. After that it may turn much milder, although that is by no means certain. If that mild weather verifies and continues to the end of the month we might actually end up around the 1971-2000 mean of 6.9C.

In the meantime it looks like the CET will dip to 6.06C by the 19th. At that point it will be 1.8C below the 1981-2010 mean. So very cold first two-thirds of November at least.

My CET estimate is currently running 0.23C below Hadley. As of yesterday Hadley was at 6.99C whereas I was at 6.76C.

CHART 1

CHART 2

Thanks GW!  

Well, that knocks my most recent theory out of the water and fits with yours Bertie but it bodes well with my CET guess. It’ll please Col too!  

Thanks GW!  

Well, that knocks my most recent theory out of the water and fits with yours Bertie but it bodes well with my CET guess. It’ll please Col too!  

Yes, there does seem to be more of a signal now for milder conditions towards the end of the month that wasn't there previously. This would prevent the figure getting down into the 5s or even high 4s as has been suggested. That said it's some way off and could obviously still change.

Met Office Hadley            6.9c.           Anomaly        -0.9c.  Provisional to 12th.

Metcheck                         6.81c          Anomaly          -0.12c

Netweather                      7.6c            Anomaly          0.71c

Peasedown St John           7.8c            Anomaly           0.26c.

Met Office Hadley            6.8c.         Anomaly         -0.9c.    Provisional to 13rth.

Metcheck                         6.69c         Anomaly          -0.23c

Netweather                      7.4c           Anomaly           0.52c

Peasedown St John         7.6c.         Anomaly          0.0c.     

Met Office Hadley             6.7c         Anomaly       -0.9c. Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                          6.55c       Anomaly       -0.37c

Netweather                       7.24c       Anomaly       0.35c

Peasedown St John         7.3c         Anomaly       -0.3c.   

Modelling isn't delivering the clearest of messages for the final third of the month.

The 00z GFS gave me a rough final CET estimate barely into the 6s*C.

The 06z GFS gave me one comfortably into the 7s*C.

Conditions become more settled than of late in both runs, but the 00z focused high pressure to the north then northeast of the UK, while the 06z focuses it to the near-east instead.

When the North Atlantic LP chain is quieter than usual (looks to be the case thanks to a minor polar vortex disruption), the ongoing low-AAM background state actually favours high pressure in neither of those two locations (instead, in the mid-Atlantic!), so it doesn't offer much help at the moment in deciphering the path the patterns will take.

Much to ponder over.

Met Office Hadley            6.6c.      Anomaly       -0.9c.  Provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                        6.55c      Anomaly       -0.27c

Netweather                     7.2c        Anomaly      0.31c

Peasedown St John        7.2c       Anomaly      -0.4c.  

Here is the latest tracker for November. Still looks like we will finish slightly below average despite a much milder final third of the month.

Current estimate is a final CET of 6.74C. My estimate up to yesterday is now running 0.30C below Hadley. Not unusual for the difference to increase during a period of cold weather.

I have added onto the chart those years since 1900 that look like most closely tracking Nov 2019. They are 1932, 1979, 1991. All of those years had an average to mild December, followed by a cool or cold January and a fairly mild February.

Chart 1

Chart 2

November predictions

Here is the prediction list. At the moment Col looks to be in a good position to retain his lead.

TABLE

Here is the latest tracker for November. Still looks like we will finish slightly below average despite a much milder final third of the month.

Current estimate is a final CET of 6.74C. My estimate up to yesterday is now running 0.30C below Hadley. Not unusual for the difference to increase during a period of cold weather.

I have added onto the chart those years since 1900 that look like most closely tracking Nov 2019. They are 1932, 1979, 1991. All of those years had an average to mild December, followed by a cool or cold January and a fairly mild February.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Chart 1

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Chart 2

Thanks GW! 

November predictions

Here is the prediction list. At the moment Col looks to be in a good position to retain his lead.

 

Yes, I'm happy with my prediction as things stand at the moment. By the end of next week it should turn milder with somewhat above average temps and after dipping a little below my prediction of 6.58C, the figure will rise again. Factoring in the downgrade I don't think I will be too far off this month.

Here is the latest position for the Autumn CET tracker - based on my November CET figures.

It shows Autumn 2019 finishing exactly in line with the 1971-2000 mean and 0.3C below the 1981-2010 mean.

I have mapped the closest matching Autumns to this year since 1900. These are 1941, 1991, 2000 and 2008.

The following winters looked like this:

1941/2 - Dec - slightly above average, Jan very cold, Feb very cold, overall very cold

1991/2 - Dec average, Jan cool, Feb mild, overall average

2000/1 - Dec quite mild, Jan cool, Feb average, overall average

2008/9 - Dec cold, Jan cold, Feb average, overall cold

So nothing in those figures to suggest a warm winter ahead.

Chart 1

Hmmm think I need the milder stuff at the end of the month to fade out and/or get lucky with some clear nights helping to keep the CET down. Today's 00z gives me cautious optimism on that front but I think overall I'm going to be a chunk out. Normal service resuming after a lucky October guess

Met Office Hadley          6.7c.        Anomaly       -0.7c. Provisional t0 16th. 

Metcheck                       6.55c       Anomaly       -0.37c

Netweather                    7.17c       Anomaly        0.28c 

Peasedown St John      7.1c.       Anomaly        -0.5c.